Most properties today sell at 0-5% cash flow year 1 and are appreciation plays, outside declining markets where the cash flow is volatile with low quality tenants. 

My thought is that those would grow to around $2.5M by the time we hit 59 1/2 and that my rental income could not only sustain me in early retirement but that income would act almost like bonds to protect from market volatility while I am in retirement. 

Many “corporate housing” or mid-term operators pitch that model but don’t always maintain the property like you would.If it were me, I’d:Take the long-term tenant if they’re solid and sign a 12-month lease.Revisit STR again next spring once demand picks back up.Or explore mid-term rentals (travel nurses, relocations) — can sometimes beat LTR rent without the volatility of Airbnb.My advice: you’re not wrong that STRs are oversaturated right now.

If I were NY I'd be getting out now just for fact of the anticipated tensions and volatility to come.

So here are just a few I’ve pulled; there are many sources out there (and sometimes they conflict/are volatile on their own, so I recommend you aggregate).

Stability vs upside:Pilsen will likely continue to appreciate faster, proximity to downtown, 18th Street development, and strong rental demand, but that comes with volatility: higher taxes, ongoing gentrification debates, and limited long-term rental affordability.Avondale, on the other hand, is more stable, solid tenant base, steady growth, and most properties there have already been hit with their reassessments.

An increased mismatch between short-term deposits and longer term loans (50 years) could exacerbate any volatility in the financial markets, thereby increasing the risk premium and costs for everyone.

The ongoing government shutdown has delayed key data, so the next Fed meeting on October 29 could bring more uncertainty (and potential volatility for rates).🛍️ Retail Sales Cool in September, But Yearly Gains HoldAfter two strong months, retail spending slowed in September — but annual sales remain healthy, led by online shopping, sporting goods, and apparel.📊 Bottom line: Consumer spending is still holding up, which helps keep the economy afloat — but softer data like this supports the case for lower rates ahead.📅 What’s Coming Up This WeekWith the shutdown still affecting government reports, inflation, retail sales, and housing starts are likely to be delayed.

You assume that supply is constant and demand has cratered, as has ability to pay.First -- Multi-million dollar houses have constant demand but volatile prices.

The labor market continues to soften, inflation is on trend down but may be volatile in the short term, the US economy is still expected to grow like gangbusters at 3.8%, and the Fed has a great cut decision to make just before Halloween (Oct. 29th).