If things go the way MP predicts, it will be around a 25% XIRR (~3x multiple).

"Companies", dang predictive text ...

Tenant gets to "own" a home while I get protection via the contract, and I make a predictable return. 

Account ClosedI don't know anybody who can predict how much values can appreciate over the next 2 years.

In any market, you need to analyze median income, and crime, and that will help predict where you will have more challenges collecting rent.Every city has their challenges with vacancy.

Here are the actual numbers:Existing Property 1:Currently a Duplex$235k PP, $255k appraised valuePut 25% down at purchase last yearCurrent rents of $1875 (one unit is slightly below market, inherited renter lease)Adding a third unit into a currently unused garage would cost $25kAdditional rent $750; total predicted rents $2650That would get us closer to 1% rule on rentsGuess that future FMV for triplex would be $275-280k, conservatively.  

Short term results is often un-predictable.

I'd love to see a predicted assessment value if a property is reassessed as part of a deal.

It's only advantage over maximum leverage is in a recession (and even then the income is still less…it's just that the price loss is not a severe).Yes, appreciation is really difficult to predict.

Economists, investors, brokers, and countless media outlets (including Youtube) share market predictions in January and the preceding months.