Are we as a world going to survive this current economic crisis? Will all this turmoil lead to more declines and eventually Anarchy?? Share your opinions.
Are we as a world going to survive this current economic crisis? Will all this turmoil lead to more declines and eventually Anarchy?? Share your opinions.
The world will survive the economic crisis. This crisis is entirely self-inflicted and will require drastic fundamental change to correct. That change certainly won't occur until there has been a complete collapse (which has already happened many times in history). Did you know that in 1781, a pair of shoes in Virgina cost $5,000 and a full set of clothes cost $1 Million? That was caused by the same fiat currency system and the same over-borrowing that we have today. The entire financial system collapsed and they essentially started over.
So, yes, this turmoil will eventually lead to collapse and anarchy. Then, we'll start over. The end result is that we'll be forced to live within our means; to actually save money; to have a lower standard of living; to actually start manufacturing things again in the US; and to be more self-sufficient (without all the government handouts).
If you want to see for yourself exactly what will happen, all you need to do is read about the history of the United States. It's all happened many times before.
Mike
I suggest you read The creature from Jekyll Island-- and you'll see how rigged the system is.
What I want to know is how to set myself up to prepare for chaos; I dont want to buy a shotgunn and hide in a bomb shelter or anything but should i be buying gold, etc? I also wonder if the next crisis want come in the credit card markets.
If you've got a big pile of extra money, then I think buying some gold is a great idea.
Certainly, the credit card companies are in trouble (look at American Express), but so is nearly every other industry. The auto industry, the airlines, the hedge funds, the housing industry, and even states and cities are now asking for bailouts.
I certainly wouldn't hide with your shotgun in a bomb shelter, but I certainly would have a shotgun and some shells in the basement!
Mike
I think it's too early for gold, we're still in the deflationary process of this nightmare. Platinum might be more reasonable play as I think it's a bit oversold, although with auto-demand dropping demand for platinum will continue to decline. Whether or not the USD will debase faster than platinum decline remains to be seen....
gold, silver, cash, food and water to start. Free and clear properties and no debt. This situation would make you feel comfortable.
I knew this market had a lot of potential, too bad it's in the wrong direction.
Great graph.
:cool:
I agree. Great graph. The problem is that we've dropped the same % in less than HALF the time it took the last 2 to reach same point. IMO, we have a lot further to fall. How many shoes can we have drop? More than 2 for sure.
OTOH, the two later bear markets turned around at those low points. This time wasn't nearly as quick as in the great depression. What's it mean? Beat's me.
Debt is not a bad thing if we enter into a hyper inflationary environment. The question is:
1. How bad is deflation
2. What is the FED gonna do about it?
3. Will the FED's actions trigger hyper-inflation
It's a very difficult subject to predict.
I have 5500rds of ammunition, a decent amount of platinum, but I will not get into gold until sub $600/oz, and especially not with a $100 over spot price for eagles...
Jack,
I'm no economist, but I believe that deflationary concerns are valid, in which case debt would be horrible.
couple responses to thread.
Platinum is not a tradeable commodity, like junk silver or small gold coins.
Debt is horrible at worst, palatable at best. Depends on what kind; installment, consumer, or investment debt-makes a dif imo.
Most people not only don't have the reserves I listed, but here is the bad news. Approximately 1/3 of Americans have a NEGATIVE net worth. Take away their home equity, and it rises to 2/3 of all Americans have Neg nw. As home prices continue to drop, the 2/3 # continues to rise. Govt. can't and won't fix that, only us.
You guys are correct, but the problem is it just depends.
1. Right now platinum / gold coins are difficult to trade because they are hard to move and floating will over $100 over spot. However there is some speculation that the paper gold markets may dislocate due to the lack of underlying physical supporting these markets. India has already went through this scenario.
2. Deflation - Yup, we are going through a huge deflationary crunch right now. Having debt in deflation is bad. However Bernanke has repeatedly said he will do whatever it takes to fight deflation. >IF< this includes currency debasement (which he stated is an option), this can cause hyper-inflation. In a hyper-inflationary environment you would want to leverage up to your eyeballs in debt.
:wink:
Jack, don't you need to differentiate between types of debt. Consumer and installment debt would not be helped in inflation much, while real estate debt would benefit greatly, just as it did in 70's for me. Great times!! My young wife in those days complained about milk going up a few cents a gallon. I told her to be happy!! That meant all our real estate was increasing in value and our net worth was doubling really fast. Rules of 72 my friend..
Rich - good point, it is much more advantageous if the debt was used to purchase real assets then say a bottle of Louis XIII at the night club. :) Of course all dollar denominated debt would still be less relative to your earning power.
Hi Jack.
Just a followup to gold and silver. I don't know what the premium is on junk silver, and gold eagles in 1/10,1/5, 1/2 and 1 oz. I do know that my junk silver half dollar will be at least worth $.50. I don't know what my paper $100 bill will be worth. I like having small denominations. These aren't going to be for buying properties. They'll be for trading for commodities, like SOAP, seasonings etc, if we ever get that bad.