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Forums » Housing News & Real Estate Market » Pending Hyper-Inflation (good read)

Pending Hyper-Inflation (good read) Subscribe to Pending Hyper-Inflation (good read)

16 posts by 10 users

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Real Estate Investor · Georgetown, MA


We have all talked about it on here since last year. I know many of us expect it with our countries balance sheet so out of wack, the fed would rather see a massive inflationary period because they can deal with it better then massive deflation. It looks like we are starting to make the turn this spring with commodities beginning to come off their bottoms.

Anyhow...I thought this was a great read...some of it above my understanding but it makes a bunch of great points.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090518.htm

As Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz recently noted, the bureaucrats that designed this bailout are "either in the pocket of the banks or they're incompetent. It's a real redistribution and a tax on all American savers. This is a strategy trying to recreate the bubble. That's not likely to provide a long-run solution. It's a solution that says let's kick the can down the road a little bit. They haven't thought enough about the determinants of the flow of credit and lending."


I found this to be interesting. As if the fed and Obama are hoping to just push this problem down the road with inflation and give the general public a false impression that this disaster is over. Its already been done once, in 2000-2001 we had the tech crash/ 9/11 and things began to unravel. The government propped the economy with cheap/easy to get money and allowed everyone to buy a home and leverage up 40:1. It saved us from a collapse but pushed the problem out to 2008. Here we are again with the govt stepping in by flooding the banks with money to make them whole. It might prop us up for for a few years but no matter what the big crash is inveitble. The only way to actually recover is let it go through the system. You have to let things fail at some point.

How do you play this as an investor? You don't want to hold cash in the bank because if his prediction of inflation is right any cash will be cut in half by 2019. Do you lock into hard assets like RE now and hopefully ride that wave of inflation? If you lock in a low interests now you would prosper in the next 10 years...correct? Obviously Gold/Silver..etc will be a hot choice as well.


Real Estate Investor · Las Vegas, Nevada


Here is another analysis from The Business Insider

Obama Is Leading Us Down The Road To Economic Hell

The high debt-to-GDP ratio that everyone is worried about actually doesn't matter...if we put policies in place to reduce the ratio going forward.

Unfortunately... we're not putting those policies in place.

Article:
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-obama-is-leading-us-down-the-road-to-hell-economically-speaking-2009-5

:cool:


Real Estate Investor · Georgetown, MA


It just seems as though they keep pushing things off. The peak keeps getting higher and higher and the collapse will eventually just get bigger and bigger.

If we didn't get propped up by the govt in 2001 we might have already hit our bottom and started back to recovery. Again we are just pushing it off to another day. Eventually it will all compound when our massive debt meets massive inflation meets the failure of SS meets the failure of healthcare. Both of those systems are expected to be insolvent by 2015-2030. Those dates seem a lot further away then they actually are.


Real Estate Investor · Las Vegas, Nevada


Politicians keep pushing it out so that the collapse doesn't happen on their watch. Their number 1 goal is to get re-elected. They prop things up so that chips, and the blame, falls on someone else years down the road. How much do people blame Bubba Clinton for the current mess? Almost none because it didn't happen while he was in office, yet a lot of the policies he put in place had a direct effect on what happened.

:cool:


Real Estate Investor · Fort Myers, Florida


IMHO
2001 thru 2005 was the result of hyper inflation

look at the growth of M2 and M3. That was the net result of the Dot.com bust.

When AG dropped rates the way he did, he started the ball rolling. Plus for some reason the Fed was pumping cash in the economy prior to 12/31/1999


Real Estate Investor · Georgetown, MA


Jeff I agree there was a period after the last crash we went through pretty bad inflation but do you think we are going to see another push, probably bigger this time around? I think its inevitable with all the money we have been printing since last year. Trillions of $$ have been pumped out and eventually it has to catch up.

Will we see mortgage rates into the teens again? I think we may.



Originally posted by Richard Warren
Politicians keep pushing it out so that the collapse doesn't happen on their watch. Their number 1 goal is to get re-elected. They prop things up so that chips, and the blame, falls on someone else years down the road. How much do people blame Bubba Clinton for the current mess? Almost none because it didn't happen while he was in office, yet a lot of the policies he put in place had a direct effect on what happened.

:cool:


You blame Clinton for the doubling of the national deficit in the eight years of the Bush presidency? For the lax enforcement of Cox's SEC? For the financial community run wild ?
Interesting.

Trying to determine a cause for this crisis by looking at policies put into place during the Clinton/AG years completely misses the point, the Banks lent money to those who couldn't possible afford it, sold unregulated securities to people who didn't understand them rated triple A by the corrupt rating agencies, the SEC lifted the limits on leverage the financial institutions could use on the balance sheets and slept through their roles a system guardians, ALL of this occurring in the last 8 years under Republican leadership and allowing the financial community to almost destroy our economy, while
being touted by the past administration as years of positive growth, unbelievable!

Listening to Republicans and republican policy supporters moan just reinforces my belief that they have learned nothing and deserve no support whatsoever until they acknowledge their part and apologize for this mess and their destructive policies.

Hyper-inflation is definitely one of many possible outcomes of trying to save people from collapse in their lives, but what you do differently besides the hands-off, let the financial system work things out themselves attitudes the got us here.


Real Estate Investor · Ohio


Lucia,

You are correct that Bush was a miserable failure when it comes to the economy. However, the coming economic collapse has it's roots going all the way back to 1913, when we allowed bankers to control the country's money through the Federal Reserve. Beyond that, the policies put into place during and after the great depression started us on the path to socialism. Those socialist policies, promoted by both republicans and democrats have caused the current mess.

Obama is a RADICAL SOCIALIST and has done more to destroy the country in a few short months than anyone could possibly imagine. The good news is that he's brought the final day of reckoning much closer by throwing away so much money. At some point in the near future, our entire economy and government will collapse (like the old Soviet Union) and we can start again - hopefully with a return to sanity.

Mike



Hi Mike,

Well saying that the Bush admin was a miserable failure is like saying the Challenger disaster was a minor technical problem.

Spent 6 Trillion Dollars more then he took in and left the world near financial collapse, it was his watch, the dollar was burnt there, and nothing to show for it. Just gone! The first person to say we are safer gets thrown up on!

Reminds one of Pogo, "I have seen the enemy and it is us!".

Hopefully, congress will pass a law requiring sterilization of the whole family,
OK, thats getting nasty but ..

I agree Obama definitely has socialistic tendencies and some of them, quite upsetting. I am watching in sadness at the car companies and the mis-handling of the bankruptcies.

My husband and I own some unsecured GM bond paper and it is pretty clear now that we willed be wiped off in favor of supporting the UAW which burns us quite a bit.

It is true, we will recover from the bite, but for the UAW ?, Smacks of "Atlas Shrugged" doesn't it? Completely undeserving of any support, but so many jobs in supporting industries.
Not sure which way is right.

But hopefully, there will be some some good to come out of the other infrastructure, health care, education initiatives.

I do not feel it is correct though to say his spending is the cause of our collapse, likely to happen as you mention or at least a lot of dollars to be printed to pay off foreign debt, , but he inherited 11 trillion in debt and basically a depression economy with no chance of achieving anything without massive spending.

Saw his picture in a paper this morning and noticed, he has aged a lot in this job already, don't know how many people would like to have it at the moment or would know how to do it better.

Cheers


Real Estate Consultant · San Antonio, Texas


Dave,

I honestly hope I'm wrong but, from where I'm sitting it's not about just kicking the can down the road a bit. Yes the politicians are in the banks pockets but, the idea is not that there is not a plan it's that they are going to F things up so bad and until "the masses" will be begging for whatever solution they come up with. Which they already have the problem is we are not hurting enough to implement it YET.

Personally I'm keeping an eye on the bond & commercial RE markets. Things have barely started to get interesting!

All the Best, Lee

Updated: 11:16AM, 05/26/2009

Dave, Do you have an account at Hussman? I have been checking out some of their other articles and have found them all great reads.


· Select a State


As a Reagan Conservative, what should I do to prepare for the collapse of the USA?

Survival gear, guns, ammo, bomb shelter, escape plans??


Real Estate Investor · Studio City, California


It all started with Alan Greenspan. The natural cycle of economics is growth, inflation, recession. The problem is when you have growth, the demand cause prices to go up. Many countries counter it with higher wages which eventually cause inflation and then the goverment have to pull the reins buy raising interest rate - OK we all know that. Back in the beginning of the last decade, the fed tried a new system. How do you create prosperity without inflation? You keep the wages low, but you allow credit to flourish. People no longer have to make more money, they just have to have credit to buy stuff. That what happened. The banks were happy, the credit card companies were happy, Car manufactures, Big screen TV makes, China, they all were happy. Well, guess what, there is no free money and at one point (Like now...) somebody need to pay for all that. I think we all got our mind straighten up. Now instead of buying that big screen TV and pay it off in three years, We will have to work and save for three years and then buy that big screen TV...


Real Estate Investor · Los Angeles, California


I like silver. Gold too. Both are scary and manipulated: Slammed by heavy shorting on Comex. The central bankers, and other powers that be, do not want to see $2000.00 gold. They will do whatever they can to stop that from happening. So precious metals are risky even when they seem like a no brainer. But I like them. I like silver more because it can still do well if the economy rebounds for real. It doesn't require a doom and gloom scenario to bust out like gold does.

That and of course, end the fed. Ron Paul's Federal Reserve Transparency Act - HR1207 seems to be getting some momentum:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PC9fkLMZmo

I still cannot believe that cartel (The Federal Reserve) can cut deals with international bankers, control our money supply, and yet the U.S congress is restricted (by law) from looking at the books.


Real Estate Investor · ten mile, Tennessee


Spent 6 Trillion Dollars more then he took in and left the world near financial collapse, it was his watch, the dollar was burnt there, and nothing to show for it. Just gone! The first person to say we are safer gets thrown up on!

Actually the spending spree that Bush went on was a direct result of Clinton having the information on the terrorists and choosing to do nothing about it. It Bush had followed Clinton's lead, there might not be any buildings left in NYC, Washington D.C., and a few other places. We would all be scared to death whenever we hear an airplane (like the recent photo opp. in NYC).

But that is ok as everything would be great!

Give me a break. There is no doubt that Clinton's actions (or lack of them) caused the BIG money to be spent out of necessity, the only thing that this Bush could not do was to convince the world to give us some monetary assistance on what we had to do, like his father was able to do previously.

Reminds one of Pogo, "I have seen the enemy and it is us!".

This is a very true statement!!! WE have learned that WE can live off the corruptness of the government and therefore do not have to work. WE are deserving of a living, it is OUR right.

Therefore in order to accomplish this the government must take over the money making companies, since they really cant tax us anymore than we pay now or they risk loosing what they can take from us.


Real Estate Investor · Fort Myers, Florida


It really started back with LBJ and the great society.

Mr Voelker really left a mark

Then Alan Greenspan left his legacy.

People want to blame the politicians, they really do not control as much of the economy as you think.

I like watching the Obama supporters blame bush for the spending. Well that would really be congresses fault. They have control of the purse strings not the president.


· Select a State


Originally posted by jawsette
Spent 6 Trillion Dollars more then he took in and left the world near financial collapse, it was his watch, the dollar was burnt there, and nothing to show for it. Just gone! The first person to say we are safer gets thrown up on!



Actually the spending spree that Bush went on was a direct result of Clinton having the information on the terrorists and choosing to do nothing about it. It Bush had followed Clinton's lead, there might not be any buildings left in NYC, Washington D.C., and a few other places. We would all be scared to death whenever we hear an airplane (like the recent photo opp. in NYC).

But that is ok as everything would be great!

Give me a break. There is no doubt that Clinton's actions (or lack of them) caused the BIG money to be spent out of necessity, the only thing that this Bush could not do was to convince the world to give us some monetary assistance on what we had to do, like his father was able to do previously.

Reminds one of Pogo, "I have seen the enemy and it is us!".


This is a very true statement!!! WE have learned that WE can live off the corruptness of the government and therefore do not have to work. WE are deserving of a living, it is OUR right.

Therefore in order to accomplish this the government must take over the money making companies, since they really cant tax us anymore than we pay now or they risk loosing what they can take from us.



jawsette-

Excellent analysis!!1 Finally someone with the guts to say it like it is! All those socialists try to say how during Clinton's tenure America had the longest period of sustained and uninterupted eonomic growth and relative peace. BUT in reality he was just creating problems that whole time that Bush had to resolve! And thats the reason he spent so much fake money. You can only avoid problems for so long, everyone knows that. Inflation is terrible and its Clinton's fault, I think thats pretty obvious.

I just can't wait for 2012 so we can get this bum out of office who created this huge economic crisis and is responsible for the coming run-away inflation. This guy is like Clinton on steriods! We are going to need 16 years of Bush type leadership to overcome Obama!!! Let's face it, if he isn't gone in 2012 (or impeached sooner), the government is going to dissolve, making county sherriffs the highest legal authority which is the way is should be anyway. No more income taxes finally (which are illegal)! I for one am stocking up on assault rifle ammo and canned food.


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