BiggerPockets

Well what I do know is that statistically less houses are bought and sold via the MLS in the winter months than in the spring, summer, or fall months. I researched it awhile back and my area drops off something like 50% in the winter time. Also from my own personal experience, my calls from my marketing completely evaporate in the winter time. Instead of getting 20-30 calls a week, I'd be looking at maybe 5 a week. This last January I didn't buy or sell a single house, and not because I wasn't trying. In February I did 1, in March I did 3 or 4, and in April I did 20. Its the same way every year. I step up a lot of our more proactive ways of finding deals in the winter, but it is still a lot slower. I think partly you just have to ride the waves as they come and build your expectations around the tides.

If your ship doesn't come in, swim out to it!

I haven't noticed any major difference between seasons and I'm in a market where weather is a factor. I think this is because motivated buyers and sellers don't choose to become motivated, something happens that causes them to become so, and they don't have any control over the timing of that "something".

One difference I have noticed is that I tend to get more calls from tire-kickers in the summer and fewer in the winter. But the number of motivated leads remains pretty consistent.

Besides, with sellers in particular, if you aren't getting calls in then you can always make calls out to pick up the slack.

I agree totally with Ryan's post. In fact there is definitely a measurable slow down in home sales during the winter months. This is not a opinion but fact based on MLS data for most of the country. The fall off is not necessarily due to the climate changes. If anything, it is just the fact that people don't like to be moving around the holidays. Additionally, most kids have just started school and it is not a ideal time to be pulling them out. That is why the housing market always picks up in the spring and peaks in the summer. That is the way it hands been and probably always will be. That doesn't mean there are not deals to be had at all times a year

Doug, well I have to say that I notice a slow down from motivated sellers contacting me through my marketing. I focus my marketing on motivated sellers all year long, and as I described in my last post, I see a dramatic slow down in the winter. Maybe people are that less motivated to do something about their impending situation, I don't know. What I do know is that ALL of my business drops off in the winter months. Now again I do take more proactive avenues to find motivated sellers in the winter months because of the slowdown, but even with these in place I get far fewer deals in the winter.

It seems kind of ironic to me that in the article she is arguing that there is no downturn in the winter and yet she keeps on citing the "peak" season as the spring and summer.

I've done the research for my market and there is a 40-60% drop in sold listings on the MLS from June, July, and August to December, January, and Februrary. I went back over the last five years and every year is the same. And again from my own experience, through my marketing I receive a significant lower response in the winter months. Not to say that you can't find deals, but in my market there is a slow down. The construction field follows the same pattern here.

I would guess it has do with the holidays and with the weather. Obviously in Houston where it rarely snows or freezes, the weather wouldn't be as big a factor.

Fact is not always truth. It may be factual to state that many individuals in this industry experience a slow down this time of year but, a more truthful statement would be that not all individuals experience a slow down this time of year.

One's view is his own paradigm. One could say I'm not going to work this time of year because there is a lion outside, or one could simply admit that they would rather relax and not work this time of year. Either reply does not affect the growing numbers of individuals needing time specific housing and mortgage goods and services each year, this time of year. One merely needs to learn how to tap in.

Two Shoe Salesmen were flown to a foreign country to develope a new market and revenue stream. Once landing and arriving in the City's center they both observed none of the locals wearing any shoes.

The first Salesman phoned back to the states stating, "What DA Hell?, Ya'll gotta get me outta here, this dog won't hunt.....NO one has heard of shoes!"

The second Salesman phoned back and stated, "WOW! I have hit the MOTHERLODE! I need ya'll to start shipping by container. NO ONE has heard of shoes!

Merry Christmas All!

I don't disagree with the power of perception, but I also know my own work ethic. I do not slow down my work ethic in the winter. I accelerate it, but what I have found is that I have to work twice as hard for half the deals in the winter months.

Is is it a perception issue that I get less than 25% of the calls from my regular marketing than I normally get in other months?

Is it a paradigm issue that I work twice as hard for half the deals in the winter months?

I find myself trying every creative marketing technique I can think of in the winter and I will get a call or two, but then when I retry the same technique in April I get 20 calls. Is that my paradigm plaguing me or is that a seasonal shift?

For me in my market, I have to intelligably deduce that there may be a seasonal tide occurring. I do not discount the ideas presented or the power of perception, but I still stand on the seasonal pattern that it will take me twice the work to find half the deals. Now does that mean that I can't make December my best month? Absolutely not, but I do know from understanding the tides that my motivation, creativity, and work ethic will have to be significantly stronger in these months just to equal other months.

The argument that this is a self-fulfilling prophesy is absolutely true for many, but not for me. I work harder finding deals in the winter months than any other months. I get hungry in the winter months. I get restless, and I get MOTIVATED. The fact for my market remains that even with my increased work ethic and motivation, I still get lower general responses in the winter. Now the self-fulfilling prophesy may play out across the market and trickle down to me because of the lack of motivation of others, but I remain a tiger in the winter. The problem being that a lot of my prey seems to be hibernating. Don't get me wrong I will go cave to cave until I find them, but it is a lot easier just to find an entire herd grazing in the meadow during the spring and tackle a dozen of them there.

I like what your saying Dick. For my market, everyone I know is slow in the winter. Now I'm the type that if there is a way, I will find it. I am marketing my butt off. I'm actually in the process of doing some "Get your money for Christmas" type of marketing. Some hit over the last couple weeks (not much from those) but most of them hit today and tomorrow, so we'll see.

I actually do mostly wholesaling. My main job is to find deals from motivated sellers. The investors I sell to will gladly buy in the winter, that's not my problem. They are all short on deals right now. My problem revolves around finding the deals. I was working on buying a 27 house package deal that would have put us through until spring (and probably made December and January two of my best months :D ), but it most likely died yesterday. So I'll drown a little in my sorrows :beer: and get back to work tomorrow.

It's funny that you bring it up, I am having some more bandit signs printed up as I write this. We have most of the town plastered already with signs, but we're going to make another pass through it.

Speaking of lead generation and marketing - I've got a few good Bandit companies and other marketing resources here:
http://www.biggerpockets.com/directory/real-estate-marketing.html

Let me know if you've got other reliable companies.