Registration is now open for our Wholesaling and Fix & Flip Bootcamps. Register Now!

Hide this

Jump to Category View All

Click a category below to view different forum categories.

BiggerPockets

General Info

Rss10 BiggerPockets Q&A, Site Questions, & Announcements

964 topics, 7692 posts — Last Post 02/09/12, 05:05AM

Rss10 BiggerPockets Exclusive PRO Area

10 topics, 73 posts — Last Post 02/06/12, 09:15PM

Rss10 New Member Introductions

4490 topics, 25662 posts — Last Post 02/11/12, 06:47AM

Rss10 BiggerPockets Success Stories

142 topics, 1632 posts — Last Post 01/28/12, 09:34AM

Rss10 BiggerPockets Real Estate Investing Summit

16 topics, 560 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 04:23PM

General Real Estate

General Real Estate

Rss10 Buying Real Estate

1195 topics, 9017 posts — Last Post 02/11/12, 06:24AM

Rss10 Selling Real Estate

303 topics, 2364 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 10:05AM

Rss10 Renters

189 topics, 1529 posts — Last Post 12/28/11, 05:55AM

Rss10 Get Foreclosure Help - Help Stop Foreclosure Forum

218 topics, 1728 posts — Last Post 02/02/12, 10:07PM

Rss10 Home Owner Association (HOA) Issues & Problems Forum

105 topics, 662 posts — Last Post 02/09/12, 09:42AM

Rss10 Do it Yourself

312 topics, 2699 posts — Last Post 02/09/12, 07:25PM

Reviews & Feedback

Rss10 Real Estate Deal Analysis and Advice

1554 topics, 12278 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 02:00PM

Rss10 Real Estate Guru, Book & Course Reviews and Discussions

677 topics, 6767 posts — Last Post 02/11/12, 04:25AM

Rss10 Ask About A Real Estate Company

309 topics, 4634 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 03:12PM

Real Estate Investing

Real Estate Strategies

Rss10 Wholesaling

2406 topics, 18098 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 10:20PM

Rss10 Rehabbing and House Flipping

1478 topics, 12679 posts — Last Post 02/09/12, 11:27AM

Rss10 Real Estate Development

190 topics, 1025 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 10:14AM

Rss10 Pre-Construction & New Home Construction

85 topics, 530 posts — Last Post 01/10/12, 07:04PM

Rss10 Innovative Strategies

328 topics, 2304 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 06:41PM

Rss10 Tax Liens, Notes, Paper, & Cash Flows Discussion

435 topics, 2411 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 02:29AM

Rss10 Rent to Own a.k.a. Lease Purchase, Lease Options

341 topics, 2086 posts — Last Post 02/07/12, 07:38PM

Rss10 1031 Exchanges

58 topics, 316 posts — Last Post 12/17/11, 05:10PM

Foreclosure Investing

Rss10 General Foreclosure & Pre-Foreclosure Forums

1096 topics, 6537 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 11:07AM

Rss10 HUD, VA, and Tax Sales

197 topics, 1221 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 12:34PM

Rss10 REOs

922 topics, 7646 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 02:54PM

Rss10 Short Sales

1220 topics, 10051 posts — Last Post 02/11/12, 02:43AM

Landlord & Tenant Forums

Rss10 Rental Property Questions & Landlording Issues

2940 topics, 26276 posts — Last Post 02/11/12, 06:44AM

Rss10 Land & Farm Investing

116 topics, 728 posts — Last Post 01/29/12, 06:46PM

Rss10 Mobile Homes & Mobile Home Park Investing

391 topics, 2864 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 02:32AM

Real Estate Dealmaking

Rss10 Make Deals, Find Partners, Mentors & BirdDogs, etc.

3648 topics, 13401 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 09:40AM

Rss10 Promote Your Real Estate Buyer's List

152 topics, 669 posts — Last Post 01/23/12, 12:35PM

Rss10 Property Wanted

626 topics, 3019 posts — Last Post 01/19/12, 02:47PM

Rss10 Seeking Financing, Money, or Loans

1218 topics, 7344 posts — Last Post 02/03/12, 11:21PM

Rss10 Tax Liens, Notes, Paper, & Cash Flows Dealmaking

273 topics, 1990 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 02:30AM

Rss10 Bulk REO Discussion and REO Dealmaking

845 topics, 5917 posts — Last Post 02/02/12, 04:20PM

Investor Basics

Rss10 Starting Out

4060 topics, 29632 posts — Last Post 02/11/12, 05:53AM

Rss10 Investor Psychology

289 topics, 4281 posts — Last Post 01/26/12, 07:52PM

Rss10 General Real Estate Investing

3057 topics, 20771 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 12:54PM

Rss10 Real Estate Investor Marketing

868 topics, 7051 posts — Last Post 02/11/12, 04:09AM

Commercial Real Estate

Rss10 Commercial Real Estate Investing Forum

718 topics, 3839 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 09:28PM

Rss10 Multi-Family and Apartment Investing

141 topics, 1347 posts — Last Post 02/07/12, 05:47AM

Rss10 Office Investing

3 topics, 36 posts — Last Post 11/15/11, 02:42PM

Rss10 Industrial Property Investing

3 topics, 12 posts — Last Post 07/05/11, 10:41AM

Rss10 Retail Property Investing

6 topics, 42 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 10:19AM

Rss10 CRE Financing and Lending

17 topics, 188 posts — Last Post 01/26/12, 05:55PM

Rss10 CRE Syndication and Fundraising

25 topics, 208 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 12:57PM

Rss10 CRE Property Management & Leasing

2 topics, 11 posts — Last Post 12/11/11, 05:05PM

The Business of Real Estate

Real Estate Technology and the Internet

Rss10 Technology, Social Media, Real Estate & The Web

244 topics, 2018 posts — Last Post 02/11/12, 06:20AM

Rss10 Real Estate Blogs & Blogging

23 topics, 278 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 11:01AM

Business Basics

Rss10 Goals, Business Plans & Entities

400 topics, 3913 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 07:12PM

Real Estate Finance & Legal

Financial, Tax, and Legal

Rss10 Tax, Legal Issues, Contracts, Self-Directed IRA

1210 topics, 8252 posts — Last Post 02/11/12, 05:36AM

Rss10 Credit & Credit Repair

177 topics, 1444 posts — Last Post 01/25/12, 06:56AM

Rss10 Property Insurance

117 topics, 753 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 11:33PM

Rss10 Bankruptcy

21 topics, 110 posts — Last Post 12/09/11, 10:01AM

Loans, Mortgages, Credit Lines

Rss10 Private & Conventional Lending Discussion

1244 topics, 7159 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 11:23PM

Rss10 Creative Real Estate Financing

623 topics, 3989 posts — Last Post 01/30/12, 05:35PM

Real Estate Professionals

Real Estate Professionals

Rss10 Real Estate Agents

611 topics, 3290 posts — Last Post 02/09/12, 06:32PM

Rss10 Bankers, Lenders, and Mortgage Brokers

351 topics, 1252 posts — Last Post 02/03/12, 06:47AM

Rss10 Contractors

117 topics, 626 posts — Last Post 02/08/12, 10:17AM

Local Real Estate

International Real Estate

Local Real Estate

Rss10 Local Real Estate Networking

573 topics, 3013 posts — Last Post 02/07/12, 04:58PM

Rss10 Americans & International Real Estate

138 topics, 499 posts — Last Post 12/24/11, 07:44AM

Rss10 Foreigners Buying in the USA

54 topics, 281 posts — Last Post 01/18/12, 09:33PM

Rss10 Canadian Real Estate

25 topics, 117 posts — Last Post 02/06/12, 05:17PM

Marketplace

Real Estate Marketplace

Rss10 Mortgages & Lending

388 topics, 1730 posts — Last Post 01/23/12, 02:23PM

Rss10 Residential Property, Land, & Farms For Sale

756 topics, 1414 posts — Last Post 12/26/11, 01:22PM

Rss10 Real Estate Events & Happenings

113 topics, 453 posts — Last Post 01/11/12, 05:36PM

Rss10 Commercial Properties for Sale or Lease

223 topics, 668 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 10:59AM

Rss10 Domains & Website Reviews

44 topics, 334 posts — Last Post 11/15/11, 09:55AM

Rss10 Classifieds - Promote your Website, Newsletter, or Product

582 topics, 2646 posts — Last Post 02/10/12, 04:56PM

Off-Topic

Off Topic

Rss10 Off-Topic

1769 topics, 18864 posts — Last Post 02/11/12, 06:41AM

Rss10 Housing News & Real Estate Market

647 topics, 6308 posts — Last Post 02/09/12, 08:59AM

BiggerPockets Resources

Forums » General Real Estate Investing » Investor risk spreading

Investor risk spreading Subscribe to Investor risk spreading

25 posts by 9 users

Signup

Homeowner · Auckland, Select a State


It's common sense not to put all your eggs in the same basket, but how do you apply that saying to real estate investment?

I.e. if you have to buy 5 properties which you intend to rent out:

- how many of them would you buy in your town / city?

- how many in a different region of your country?

- how many abroad?


Commercial Real Estate Broker · Memphis, Tennessee


In my opinion, you should start diversifying geographically when you hit 15-20 properties. The US is large enough that there is no need to diversify internationally. Unless your city is totally dependent upon one employer, then I think this is a good number. Having all your houses in one market is akin to having all your money in one specific stock.

One example I use often is the investors that had over 50 properties in New Orleans a few years ago. Right now we can help people with the Memphis/NW Mississippi area, but it is my goal to provide our investors opportunities in St Louis and Oklahoma City in the next two years.


Real Estate Investor · sioux falls, South Dakota


au contraire. Why would I not want to continue buying in my area of SO. TX. For 3 years running, it has been rated #1 for potential appreciation. Money mag, forbes, fiserv etc. I know the area, have mgmt and handyman set up. I am just starting to buy in another area. It has been beat down and is starting to come out of funk. I like to be ahead of the crowd
I've never heard of some "15-20" #. That seems useless to me, sorry, imo.


Commercial Real Estate Broker · Memphis, Tennessee


Rich it is just simple diversification. If you have all of your properties in one market, then you are subject to any downturns in the local market that range from a simple loss of employer to major natural disasters such as earthquakes or hurricanes.

Diversification is a conservative approach, but if you have everything in one market and disaster strikes, then it can be a problem.

I am in Memphis and believe it or not this is an earthquake zone. What happens if I own 70 houses in Memphis and the New Madrid fault has a quake like happened in the 1800s?

If that happens I would rather only lose a percentage of my real estate portfolio than all of it and possibly my regular source of income as well.

Now if nothing happens in your area, then there was no need to diversify, but I can't predict the future. Hopefully everything works out in your area, but I am probably more conservative in my investment strategy.

Diversification is a huge consideration in stock/mutual fund investing, but hardly given any consideration in real estate investing. I personally hadn't given it much thought, but I did after talking to Katrina refugees who were landlords in New Orleans.


Real Estate Investor · sioux falls, South Dakota


I don't know of a SINGLE area that doesn't pose some kind of risk. That is why we get insurance. I'll take my chance in an area that didn't have an earthquake since the early 1800's. Why would I want to buy or build in an area that is going in the tank, just to diversify.
I don't want property in most of the areas in the country. I always try different areas when the time is right, not just so I can say i diversified. Rich


Rehabber · Santa Clarita, California


I am not a big believer in diversification. I tend to side with Mr Buffet on this topic. Diversification is for investors who don't really know what they are doing and need diversification for safety.

If I find an area where I continually dominate and rake in massive returns, I am going to throw everything I have at that and not buy in other areas simply to "diversify"

Of course it all comes down to persoanl preference and each individuals tolerance of risk coupled with their own comfort zones.

Small_barnardenterprisesWill Barnard, Barnard Enterprises, Inc.
E-Mail: info@barnardenterprises.com
Website: http://www.barnardenterprises.com
info@barnardenterprises.com


Real Estate Investor · sioux falls, South Dakota


Ditto, Will. Pretty much what I feel. Rich.


Rehabber · Santa Clarita, California


I am, by no means stating that some should not diversify, as some people need to, just that one should not do it simply to do it.

Like I stated, diversification is done to "reduce risk" but reducing or even eliminating risk can be done in more ways than just diversifying.

Small_barnardenterprisesWill Barnard, Barnard Enterprises, Inc.
E-Mail: info@barnardenterprises.com
Website: http://www.barnardenterprises.com
info@barnardenterprises.com


Homeowner · Auckland, Select a State


Interesting variety of replies. Maybe the key element has been omitted and is: "where do I feel at home?" - In my case, there are several countries (spread over 4 continents) where I feel equally at home, and equally everywhere within each country. I have family, friends, acquiantances, business etc. in all these places. So maybe I would tend to diversify my real estate investments more than the average investor.

Good points regarding the risks of an earthquake or other natural disasters. Bear in mind that insurance covers only a small part of the damage; i.e. if a suburb is destroyed / badly damaged by a tsunami, insurance may cover the repairs to your property, but there are plenty of other damages that are more difficult to assess and to cover. I.e. the area will become undesirable, rents will go down, etc.


Real Estate Investor · dc, Washington D.C.


Another way to spread out the risk is via group investing: partnerships, JVs, TICs (N/A in some cases), or syndicates. I prefer syndicates.


Rehabber · Santa Clarita, California


Dory,

I would argue that your risk factor is not reduced by a synidaction, just that you personally had only a percentage of ownership and therefore a percentage of the same risk.
Reducing and eliminating risk is not done by spreading over Geography (in my opinion) or spreading between multiple parties, but in doing your homework on the specific investment and that specific area.

In short, if the risk factor for a specific investment was 100 for simplicity's sake, and you formed a synidcation between 5 investors, each investor would have 20 ponits in risk factor, but the total risk factor did not go down, you put in 20% and therefore have 20% of the risk, which calculated by your money invested is still the same if you bought the whole thing yourself.

Small_barnardenterprisesWill Barnard, Barnard Enterprises, Inc.
E-Mail: info@barnardenterprises.com
Website: http://www.barnardenterprises.com
info@barnardenterprises.com


Real Estate Investor · dc, Washington D.C.


Will,

That's exactly my point. Although the amount of risk for a particular opportunity doesn't change, one's percentage of exposure to that risk does lessen with group participation. That's not to infer or imply that each participant will share the exposure to that risk equitably.

Every opportunity has a linear combination of risks and rewards. Ealier you stated, "Diversification is for investors who don't really know what they are doing and need diversification for safety." I agree, and I'll go a step further. I believe a lot of investors are ignorant, lazy, and/or apathetic. I believe that many of them (mis)use diversification as an alternative for digging into the fundamentals for each opportunity. I view their form of diversification as playing a round of Yahtzee: rolling multiple dice.

Investing, farming, and gambling all share something in common: they all involve playing games with numbers. I view farming and gambling as opposite extremes of a spectrum. The less an investor knows about the underlying fundamentals of a particular investment, the more s/he is gambling. Similarly, the more s/he knows about those fundamentals, the more s/he is farming. Farmers know what to plant, where to plant it, how to nurture it, and when to harvest it. Farmers also know (or learn) that it's unwise to only plant a single seed, and to expect a bountiful harvest. I believe investors should do something similar.


Rehabber · Santa Clarita, California


Couldn't have said it better myself Dory. :lol:

Small_barnardenterprisesWill Barnard, Barnard Enterprises, Inc.
E-Mail: info@barnardenterprises.com
Website: http://www.barnardenterprises.com
info@barnardenterprises.com



One example I use often is the investors that had over 50 properties in New Orleans a few years ago. Right now we can help people with the Memphis/NW Mississippi area, but it is my goal to provide our investors opportunities in St Louis and Oklahoma City in the next two years.


Rehabber · Santa Clarita, California


Michele,
Not sure what your point is from your post. Are you saying you are for or against diversification in RE across multiple areas just for the sake of diversification/risk spreading? Or are you just posting a plug for your services?

Small_barnardenterprisesWill Barnard, Barnard Enterprises, Inc.
E-Mail: info@barnardenterprises.com
Website: http://www.barnardenterprises.com
info@barnardenterprises.com


Accountant · Garden Grove, California


Someone mentioned Warren Buffet. He lost around Twenty BILLION dollars last year. Maybe now he wishes he had diversified a little more. He invested nearly a Billion in GE at 32 and it dropped to 5, and is now around 12. He invested in Wells Fargo at 40 and it dropped to 7, now around 25.

Diversification is a GOOD thing, and sometimes, it only needs to be 10 miles. Look at Orange County, CA and compare Newport Beach to Garden Grove.

Twenty years ago, my father bought 15 properties in the Fresno, CA area. UGGG. What a mistake! He would have been better off buying 3 in Fresno, 3 in Modesto, 3 in the Inland Empire, 3 in Orange County and 3 in San Diego! I am still cleaning that mess up today, down to 10 in the Fresno area.


Rehabber · Santa Clarita, California


Someone mentioned Warren Buffet. He lost around Twenty BILLION dollars last year. Maybe now he wishes he had diversified a little more. He invested nearly a Billion in GE at 32 and it dropped to 5, and is now around 12.
Buffet did not lose anything in GE unless he sells now. Yes it is down to around $12.90 a share, but it will be back. GE is a solid company and the reduction in dividends created billions in savings to GE. I also believe Mr. Buffets strike price on his prefered shares is $23, not $32. Either way, he has lost nothing unless he sells before it reaches his target price.

Twenty years ago, my father bought 15 properties in the Fresno, CA area. UGGG. What a mistake! He would have been better off buying 3 in Fresno, 3 in Modesto, 3 in the Inland Empire, 3 in Orange County and 3 in San Diego!
While your Father's persoanl situation may have been improved if he did diversify as you state, that just proves my point. IF your Father had done his DD and new what he was doing, he would have made the 15 purchases in Fresno at the right time and at the right price. Buying at the right price and having cash flow makes an investment almost failure proof, regardless of what happens in the economy or to RE prices. Even if the value dropped 40%, so long as the cash flow was there to start, it is still there at the lower value.

Small_barnardenterprisesWill Barnard, Barnard Enterprises, Inc.
E-Mail: info@barnardenterprises.com
Website: http://www.barnardenterprises.com
info@barnardenterprises.com


Accountant · Garden Grove, California


Nationwide, if you are going to use the argument, "he loses nothing unless he sells" then you also have to say "he has not gained anything unless he sells" as well. Last time I checked, Forbes assesses a person's VALUE by the value of what they hold.

Also, I am not sure I agree with your assessment of GE. There was a time that folks said the same thing about GM and AIG and Bear Stearns and Enron, etc....

Although not directly correlated, my experience has shown that when property values drop, my vacancy rate goes up. Two years ago, the 10 properties in the Fresno area were fully rented, but today, six are vacant. So we are trying to rent them, and quite a bit less than just two years ago. Therefore, when property values drop, so does rental income.

There is the theoretical side and then there is the reality side. CASH FLOW IS KING. Every formula, every 'abbreviated' investment term, EVERYTHING, hinges on the CASH FLOW. When cash flow is zero, none of the formula's work.

But to get back to the original question, diversity is a good thing.

As a side note, I took over my parent's properties because dad is in the advanced stages of Alzheimer's. That is one WICKED disease.


Rehabber · Santa Clarita, California


As a side note, I took over my parent's properties because dad is in the advanced stages of Alzheimer's. That is one WICKED disease.
I have personal experience with that so my sympathies are with you.

As far as diversification, yes it can be a good thing, but my only point is that it is not a necessary thing. In the situation with your Fresno properties, I can only say that it is Fresno - not a strong market to invest in, today or in the past. You have to be very careful investing in the outskirts of major metropolitan areas. If you don't have the job base, you don't have a large foundation.

Either way, if you pick an area which has tremendous opportunity and loacte this area by exerting a tremendous amount of due diligence, then there is no need to diversify simply to diversify in my opinion. I would throw everything I had at it to make as much as I could for as long as I could.

Nationwide, if you are going to use the argument, "he loses nothing unless he sells" then you also have to say "he has not gained anything unless he sells" as well.
Point taken and I don't disagree, however, I was not the one claiming he has lost anything.

Also, I am not sure I agree with your assessment of GE. There was a time that folks said the same thing about GM and AIG and Bear Stearns and Enron, etc
You are comparing GE to GM and Enron? Give me a brake. No comparison. If there was ever an argument for diversification, then GE would be your golden boy! They are into just about everything!
Again, my point is not to say that diversification does not have it's advantages, just to say that all investors should invest in multple areas just to have diversification is nonsense.

Small_barnardenterprisesWill Barnard, Barnard Enterprises, Inc.
E-Mail: info@barnardenterprises.com
Website: http://www.barnardenterprises.com
info@barnardenterprises.com


Accountant · Garden Grove, California


Actually, it is "give me a break", not "give me a brake", unless you are stopping a vehicle.

Actually, I am considering purchasing some GE stock. But not until they get rid of Jeffrey Immelt. What a joke. Who put him in charge of GE? Instead of running GE for the Stockholders, he is running GE for the Democrats, which is why Obama appointed him as a member of President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board. GE stock was around 33 when Immelt took over, and dove down to 5. Yep, a real winner!


Sign up