Posted over 14 years ago

Where's the Real Estate Market headed?

One always hears different “expert opinions” on the direction of the real estate market. Usually these stories quote a single expert. The problem with quoting one expert is that you will have differences of opinion depending on which expert you ask. Experts usually have a bullish or bearish attitude towards the future.

I prefer to go a different route when trying to gauge the future of the market. I use the MacroMarkets forecast (http://www.macromarkets.com/real-estate/home-price-survey.asp). This is a financial company, started by Robert Shiller (co-founded Case-Shiller Weiss real estate index), which aggregates “a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts”. They are surveyed every quarter regarding the 5-year expectations for future home prices in theUnited States.

I like this method over the single expert since it averages or smoothes out the individual expectations and gives a better overall direction of the market.

Based on the latest December 2011 survey we won’t see positive gains until 2013.

Here is the latest forecast: