Where's the Real Estate Market headed?
One always hears different “expert opinions” on the direction of the real estate market. Usually these stories quote a single expert. The problem with quoting one expert is that you will have differences of opinion depending on which expert you ask. Experts usually have a bullish or bearish attitude towards the future.
I prefer to go a different route when trying to gauge the future of the market. I use the MacroMarkets forecast (http://www.macromarkets.com/real-estate/home-price-survey.asp). This is a financial company, started by Robert Shiller (co-founded Case-Shiller Weiss real estate index), which aggregates “a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts”. They are surveyed every quarter regarding the 5-year expectations for future home prices in theUnited States.
I like this method over the single expert since it averages or smoothes out the individual expectations and gives a better overall direction of the market.
Based on the latest December 2011 survey we won’t see positive gains until 2013.
Here is the latest forecast:
- 2011: decrease of 1.97%
- 2012: decrease of 0.18%
- 2013: increase of 1.75%
- 2014: increase of 2.71%
- 2015: increase of 3.23%
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Comments (2)
Not sure when it will come back but I agree that an average of data is always better than a single source.
Jeffrey K., almost 14 years ago
I am thinking 2015, but I will gladly take your 2013 analysis.
Kevin Kaczmarek, almost 14 years ago