I scored 106 Austin leads this week — here's the one deal worth looking at

Jackie Carmichael · 2026-04-01T10:25:43-07:00

I've been building a system that monitors FSBO, foreclosure, and off-market listings, then scores them to find the ones actually worth an investor's time. Ran it across 106 Austin leads this week. Here's what stood out: 14301 Sandifer St, Austin, TX 78725 - Asking: $195,500 - Tax assessed: $270,764 (28% below assessed) - Suggested offer: $160,000 - ARV estimate: $270,000 - Strategy: BRRRR Multiple distress signals — foreclosure source, significant discount to assessed value, and potential for strong cash flow after stabilization. The main risks are unknown interior conditions and possible title complications arising from the foreclosure process. Out of 106 leads, only 24 passed as investable after filtering out retail listings, junk data, and overpriced properties. The other 82 were noise, which is pretty typical when you're aggregating public sources. Has anyone looked at the 78725 zip code recently? Curious what rents are actually doing in that pocket.

Janice Carter

Real Estate Broker · Atlanta · Member since 2024 · 1k+ posts · 605 votes

5mo

Jackie, nice breakdown. That is exactly how it should be done, filtering out the noise to find true opportunities. That deal looks interesting on paper but like you said, the real risk will be condition and clear title. That is always where the deal is won or lost.

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Jackie Carmichael
OP
Lender · Hinton, WV · Member since 2025 · 128 posts · 53 votes
5mo
@Janice Carter

Thank you! That's exactly the problem I built this to solve — most aggregated lead lists are 80%+ noise, so having a scoring layer is what separates the signals from the junk.

And you're 100% right, condition and title are where deals are won or lost. The data gets you to the door, but you still have to do the work on the ground. For a foreclosure like this one, I'll be pulling title early before getting too deep into the numbers.

Are you working the Austin market at all? Would love to hear what you're seeing — especially in 78725 if you have any color on rents out there.
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Reynaldo Cruz
Member since 2025 · 2 posts · 0 votes
1mo
Quote from @Jackie Carmichael:

@Janice Carter

Thank you! That's exactly the problem I built this to solve — most aggregated lead lists are 80%+ noise, so having a scoring layer is what separates the signals from the junk.

And you're 100% right, condition and title are where deals are won or lost. The data gets you to the door, but you still have to do the work on the ground. For a foreclosure like this one, I'll be pulling title early before getting too deep into the numbers.

Are you working the Austin market at all? Would love to hear what you're seeing — especially in 78725 if you have any color on rents out there.
I'm not sure if you're interested in this yet, but I cover the entire Austin area. If you need pictures or videos of the exterior, just let me know.
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J CastroBusiness Member

Lender · Florida · Member since 2025 · 673 posts · 240 votes

5mo

Strong approach @Jackie Carmichael—this is exactly where smart deal flow is heading.

From a lender perspective, deals like this check a lot of boxes on paper (deep discount, BRRRR potential, distress signal), but the execution risk is where most investors get tripped up. On something like this, we'd be zeroing in on:

True rehab scope (not just light vs heavy—foundation, roof, systems will make or break leverage)
Title clarity coming out of foreclosure (this can delay or kill timelines)
Realistic ARV support—not just comps, but condition-adjusted comps

On the 78725 pocket (Austin, Texas)—we’re still seeing solid rental demand, but not the aggressive rent growth from 2021–2022. It’s more stabilized now, so conservative underwriting is key. Most lenders (us included) are going to want to see rents that support the exit today, not projected upside.

At $160K, this could be a strong deal if the rehab stays controlled and title is clean—but if either drifts, your margin disappears quickly.

Big takeaway: great sourcing system—but the win is still in tight underwriting + clean execution.

JCREIG Capital Funding

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Jackie Carmichael
OP
Lender · Hinton, WV · Member since 2025 · 128 posts · 53 votes
5mo
@J Castro

Really appreciate the lender perspective on this — and you hit exactly the right pressure points. The sourcing is just the starting line. Tight underwriting and clean execution is where it actually gets won or lost.

On 78725 — good to hear stabilized demand is holding. That confirms my conservative rent assumption heading into the analysis. I'd rather underwrite to today's market than bet on upside that may not materialize.

The rehab scope is the big unknown here. At $160K there's margin to work with, but only if the major systems aren't hiding surprises. Foundation and roof are the first things I'd want eyes on before getting attached to the numbers.

Would love to connect — always good to have a lender who thinks this way in the network when the right deal is ready to move.
1 Reply
J CastroBusiness Member
Lender · Florida · Member since 2025 · 673 posts · 240 votes
5mo
Quote from @Jackie Carmichael:

@J Castro

Really appreciate the lender perspective on this — and you hit exactly the right pressure points. The sourcing is just the starting line. Tight underwriting and clean execution is where it actually gets won or lost.

On 78725 — good to hear stabilized demand is holding. That confirms my conservative rent assumption heading into the analysis. I'd rather underwrite to today's market than bet on upside that may not materialize.

The rehab scope is the big unknown here. At $160K there's margin to work with, but only if the major systems aren't hiding surprises. Foundation and roof are the first things I'd want eyes on before getting attached to the numbers.

Would love to connect — always good to have a lender who thinks this way in the network when the right deal is ready to move.

Couldn’t agree more—tight underwriting and major systems first are key. Sounds like you have a solid approach. I’d be happy to connect and stay in touch for the right deal.
JCREIG Capital Funding
Website View Page
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Morgan Weiss

Member since 2026 · 65 posts · 28 votes

1mo

Quick heads-up on the numbers half, since you flagged 78725 — I work with housing-market data rather than wholesaling, so take this as a pressure-test. 78725 is one of the few Austin pockets where a rental pencils on paper right now, and it's worth understanding why.

The tract covering most of 78725 has a 2024 median gross rent ~$2,226 and median home value ~$321K — a gross rent-to-price near 8.4%. For context, across every Travis County tract the county median is ~4.2% and the 90th percentile only 6.4%. So this block sits in roughly the top 3% of the county for gross yield. That's real, and it's why a BRRRR can look good here when it dies everywhere else in Austin.

The catch is direction. Over 2014–2024 that tract's median value ran up ~172% ($117K→$321K) while median rent rose only ~76% ($1,262→$2,226). The yield you're seeing is what's left after a decade of appreciation already fired — not a value play still coming. Income rose $65K→$104K, so the lift is genuine, just largely priced in.

Practical version: don't trust a ZIP-wide or Zestimate rent here — at 8% gross the deal lives or dies on real rent, and 78725 is far enough out that comps get thin. If true market rent comes in even 8–10% under your pro-forma, re-run it. Honest limit: gross rent-to-price off ACS medians, small-sample, skews single-family — use it as a screen, not the underwriting.

One process note for filtering 106 leads/week: this is one ratio (rent×12/value) plus a demand check (income/population climbing under it), per tract, free on data.census.gov (B25064, B25077). Ranking leads by that ratio then knocking out high-yield tracts that are hollowing out is a much tighter first pass than ZIP-level heat.

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Alyssa MarquezBusiness Member

Real Estate Agent · San Antonio TX / Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2023 · 117 posts · 26 votes

1mo

I guess a lot of the value comes in that filtering - removing 106 leads to 24 you have to consider seems like a big win on time savings. If I were to dive deeper into Sandifer, I would want to really get in the interior condition, title of, and true sold comparable, and rely very little on assumed assessed value or ARV, though… current rent comparable in 78725 would be important as well and the brrrr analysis. Let's be anxious to see the real brrrr on this one!

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Tom S.

Real Estate Investor · Burlington, VT · Member since 2010 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes

1mo

@Jackie Carmichael What ended up happening with this potential deal?

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I scored 106 Austin leads this week — here's the one deal worth looking at

I scored 106 Austin leads this week — here's the one deal worth looking at

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