Las Vegas Area Meetup

Real Estate Agent · Henderson, NV · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 550 votes

Time to kick off 2014. We'll be meeting at Nacho Daddy on Eastern Ave/St. Rose Parkway, January 30th from 7-9pm. The cost is $15 which includes nacho bar and soft drinks.

If you plan to attend please comment here on this thread, or go to Meetup.com.

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Robert AdamsBusiness Member

Real Estate Broker · Henderson, NV · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 373 votes

12y

Originally posted by @Lee P.:

http://www.dunhillhomes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/vegas_realtor_appreciation_01_2014.html

This builder needs your help so badly :)

This is the beginning of MANY new home builder incentives to come. I have been telling people New Homes are not the way to go for a while now.

On 10-17-13 I wrote:

"With inventory rising and the market setting itself up to soften in 2014, brand new homes are looking to take it on the chin again. If you are going to buy right now, BUY SMART!"

See the full article here: http://www.lvrealestatehelp.com/1/post/2013/10/you-really-want-a-brand-new-home-in-las-vegasrobert-adamswouldnt-recommend-it.html

In regards to the inventory rising, we have seen increased inventory week after week since April 2013 until December when we saw our first decline. Since December we have seemed to have hit a plateau. One week we are up and the next we are down.

There is no arguing that the volume of sales has decreased since the hay day of 2012 and even Q1 of 2013. However, those were also the days of 30% annual appreciation. NO MARKET CAN CONTINUOSLY HAVE GAINS OF 30% A YEAR AND BE STABLE. The fact is our properties were drastically under valued because of the crash. Even now that our median home price is around $185k it is still low compared to other most major cities in the US. With the low prices of 2009 to 2011 hedge funds moved in and capitalized on these low prices as they created great cashflow with CAP rates around 12-14%. This was combined with the fact that our REO inventory was cut off with laws like AB284. Hopefully, you jumped on the bandwagon and rode the wave with the hedge funds and caught some nice returns over the past few years. Now that those CAP rates are long gone most hedge funds have moved on to other parts of the country. Leaving the demand side of the market to be powered by owner occupant buyers (who were getting out bid by hedge funds) and the everyday investors.

With the demand decreasing inventory rose. However, it did not rise enough to send us into a buyer's market (yet). As of now we are in a pretty balanced market with homes selling around appraisal value. The days of selling above appraisal value and 30 offers on a property are gone. On the good deals you will still find a few offers competing but that is normal.

We have around 7,000 listing in contigent and pending status. This means people are still buying homes. The fact that inventory has hit a plateau shows that buyers are buying up properties as fast as they are hitting the market. If we maintain this equilibrium we will maintain a healthy market. The question is will we maintain this equilibrium.

My 2 cents.

[email protected]702-349-9175

The Adams Team at Rothwell Gornt Companies4.971 Reviews

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Phillip Dwyer
OP
Real Estate Agent · Henderson, NV · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 550 votes
12y
@Tiger M. Check it out if you can stay up that late ;)
0 Reply
Tiger M.
property manager · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2012 · 502 posts · 171 votes
12y
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Thats what happens when the poor northwest Vegas Valley folks, like me, get to the office at 5-6 AM and work all day. We gripe about driving all the way up to the rich part of town and getting to bed later than 8 PM. I am planning on being there, just have Redbull added to that drink list...

Thanks for hosting again.
0 Reply
Phillip Dwyer
OP
Real Estate Agent · Henderson, NV · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 550 votes
12y
@Ace A. It's been a while. You should come!
0 Reply
Phillip Dwyer
OP
Real Estate Agent · Henderson, NV · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 550 votes
12y
@Jason Burdett You need to get there!
0 Reply
Phillip Dwyer
OP
Real Estate Agent · Henderson, NV · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 550 votes
12y
Reminder: Las Vegas meetup tonight.
0 Reply
Tiger M.
property manager · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2012 · 502 posts · 171 votes
12y
Redbull? See you there.
0 Reply
Hugo Solorio
Redmond, WA · Member since 2013 · 7 posts · 1 vote
12y
Ill be walking in late since I'm getting off work late but I'll be there.
0 Reply
Phillip Dwyer
OP
Real Estate Agent · Henderson, NV · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 550 votes
12y
Thanks to all that attended last night. There were lots of new faces, and good info shared.

See you next month!
0 Reply
Tiger M.
property manager · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2012 · 502 posts · 171 votes
12y
Thanks for the hosting. I had a great time meeting everyone and a turn out of 30-40 people was good to see.
0 Reply
Lee P.
Real Estate Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 13 posts · 0 votes
12y
Here is Vegas latest update. Anyone seeing anything differently?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dX_rqTATgVI&feature=youtu.be
0 Reply
Troy Fisher
Specialist · Kirkland, WA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 817 votes
12y
Wow! 30 People? What did you do @Phillip Dwyer ? Sure beats the 10 we were averaging when I was there! Congratz!
0 Reply
Phillip Dwyer
OP
Real Estate Agent · Henderson, NV · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 550 votes
12y
@Troy Fisher You'll have to make a trip out for the next one!
0 Reply
Phillip Dwyer
OP
Real Estate Agent · Henderson, NV · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 550 votes
12y
@Lee P. Thanks for sharing the link. Seems to mirror what @Tiger M. mentioned at the meetup.

I think it could easily play out this way. On the other hand, my phone has been ringing off the hook. This could be a fluke, but I think there were a lot of buyers on the fence that may jump in now that there's plenty of homes to look at.
0 Reply
Lee P.
Real Estate Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 13 posts · 0 votes
12y
@Phillip Dwyer and @Tiger M. I am no expert but I don't think a housing buble is coming that soon. I am kinda hopeful for a mini bust toward the end of the year. Investors bought over 40,000 homes with cash in the last 2 years so those people are not selling anytime soon unless they make a decent profit on their investment. We have a smaller pool of houses to play with now. It would be nice to see the 2011 prices come back but it is most likely not going to happen. I heard other realtors advising sellers not to list this year if they don't have to as they can get more next year.

Still, it is good news that your phone has been ringing off the hook, Phillip.
0 Reply
Lee P.
Real Estate Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 13 posts · 0 votes
12y
LATEST NEWS: Nevada ranked 50th in the nation for its residents' financial security.
0 Reply
Tiger M.
property manager · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2012 · 502 posts · 171 votes
12y
don't forget about our public school system, 5th largest in the nation and we are ranked last in the nation. No diploma, no financial security.
0 Reply
Phillip Dwyer
OP
Real Estate Agent · Henderson, NV · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 550 votes
12y
Who needs financial security when you can double up your paycheck with one spin?
0 Reply
Lee P.
Real Estate Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 13 posts · 0 votes
12y
http://www.dunhillhomes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/vegas_realtor_appreciation_01_2014.html

This builder needs your help so badly :)
0 Reply
Robert AdamsBusiness Member
Real Estate Broker · Henderson, NV · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 373 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Lee P.:
http://www.dunhillhomes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/vegas_realtor_appreciation_01_2014.html

This builder needs your help so badly :)

This is the beginning of MANY new home builder incentives to come. I have been telling people New Homes are not the way to go for a while now.

On 10-17-13 I wrote:

"With inventory rising and the market setting itself up to soften in 2014, brand new homes are looking to take it on the chin again. If you are going to buy right now, BUY SMART!"

See the full article here: http://www.lvrealestatehelp.com/1/post/2013/10/you-really-want-a-brand-new-home-in-las-vegasrobert-adamswouldnt-recommend-it.html

In regards to the inventory rising, we have seen increased inventory week after week since April 2013 until December when we saw our first decline. Since December we have seemed to have hit a plateau. One week we are up and the next we are down.

There is no arguing that the volume of sales has decreased since the hay day of 2012 and even Q1 of 2013. However, those were also the days of 30% annual appreciation. NO MARKET CAN CONTINUOSLY HAVE GAINS OF 30% A YEAR AND BE STABLE. The fact is our properties were drastically under valued because of the crash. Even now that our median home price is around $185k it is still low compared to other most major cities in the US. With the low prices of 2009 to 2011 hedge funds moved in and capitalized on these low prices as they created great cashflow with CAP rates around 12-14%. This was combined with the fact that our REO inventory was cut off with laws like AB284. Hopefully, you jumped on the bandwagon and rode the wave with the hedge funds and caught some nice returns over the past few years. Now that those CAP rates are long gone most hedge funds have moved on to other parts of the country. Leaving the demand side of the market to be powered by owner occupant buyers (who were getting out bid by hedge funds) and the everyday investors.

With the demand decreasing inventory rose. However, it did not rise enough to send us into a buyer's market (yet). As of now we are in a pretty balanced market with homes selling around appraisal value. The days of selling above appraisal value and 30 offers on a property are gone. On the good deals you will still find a few offers competing but that is normal.

We have around 7,000 listing in contigent and pending status. This means people are still buying homes. The fact that inventory has hit a plateau shows that buyers are buying up properties as fast as they are hitting the market. If we maintain this equilibrium we will maintain a healthy market. The question is will we maintain this equilibrium.

My 2 cents.
[email protected]702-349-9175
The Adams Team at Rothwell Gornt Companies4.971 Reviews
Website View Page
1 Reply
Robert AdamsBusiness Member
Real Estate Broker · Henderson, NV · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 373 votes
12y
Just curious if anyone else has any other thoughts about the Las Vegas market? I like to hear what others think as well.
[email protected]702-349-9175
The Adams Team at Rothwell Gornt Companies4.971 Reviews
Website View Page
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