Chicago prices have now dropped 20.6% off their highs

Chicago prices have now dropped 20.6% off their highs

Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes

Chicago prices have now fallen 20.6% off their highs! Definitely will be some more opportunities out there this spring/summer. I have seen inventory drastically up since the holidays but have also had many buyers come back in the game over even just the last few weeks so not sure how far will really fall with so much capital out there chasing these deals (including you all haha). In the markets I focus on northside and nicer parts of south side (mckinley park/bridgeport/brighton park) market prices on 2-4 units seem to have fallen in the 10-15% range with Brighton Park multi units actually held almost same as before rates rose but that market was drastically increasing prior and rents are now about 10% higher there then a year ago. I am guessing higher end single family/condos and properties in higher crime areas may have fallen much further which brings the average to 20.6%. Either way will be an interesting year! I am not waiting and buying any deals that fit my criteria.

As for loan options I have reached out to many local lenders and rates are down significantly from their highs. The best so far I have found all from local banks mainly portfolio type products....

5.75% 20% down on 2 units owner occupant with 1 point on a fixed 30. Same rate but 25% down for 3/4 units 1 point.

5.625% 25% down owner occupant 2-4 units with a 5 year ARM and 1 point. Needs to be higher loan amounts not small deals.

6.0% non owner occupant on 2-4 units with a 5 year balloon. 5.875% on a 3 year balloon. 

5.875% 5+ units 5 year ARM with 1 point

7% owner occupant 2-4 units at 10% down. Was 6.5% a few weeks ago so will see what is at next week. Closed one with them in past month.

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Member since 2020 · 11 posts · 10 votes
3y

@Jonathan Klemm is that virtual rehab open to everyone or is that more for business purposes only? It would be interesting as a beginning investor to see how it’s done. Thought I would ask 

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  • Chicago · Member since 2022 · 37 posts · 46 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Henry Lazerow:

    Chicago prices have now fallen 20.6% off their highs! Definitely will be some more opportunities out there this spring/summer. I have seen inventory drastically up since the holidays but have also had many buyers come back in the game over even just the last few weeks so not sure how far will really fall with so much capital out there chasing these deals (including you all haha). In the markets I focus on northside and nicer parts of south side (mckinley park/bridgeport/brighton park) market prices on 2-4 units seem to have fallen in the 10-15% range with Brighton Park multi units actually held almost same as before rates rose but that market was drastically increasing prior and rents are now about 10% higher there then a year ago. I am guessing higher end single family/condos and properties in higher crime areas may have fallen much further which brings the average to 20.6%. Either way will be an interesting year! I am not waiting and buying any deals that fit my criteria.

    As for loan options I have reached out to many local lenders and rates are down significantly from their highs. The best so far I have found all from local banks mainly portfolio type products....

    5.75% 20% down on 2 units owner occupant with 1 point on a fixed 30. Same rate but 25% down for 3/4 units 1 point.

    5.625% 25% down owner occupant 2-4 units with a 5 year ARM and 1 point. Needs to be higher loan amounts not small deals.

    6.0% non owner occupant on 2-4 units with a 5 year balloon. 5.875% on a 3 year balloon. 

    5.875% 5+ units 5 year ARM with 1 point

    7% owner occupant 2-4 units at 10% down. Was 6.5% a few weeks ago so will see what is at next week. Closed one with them in past month.


     I wouldn't make a guess at what happens but to stick straight to numbers, this post could have been made last year in January 2022 and made similar claims, except it'd be about a 15% decline instead of 20%. This data is not YoY so it does not account for seasonality.

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2018 · 352 posts · 176 votes
    3y

    @Henry Lazerow Hey Henry, what you are pointing out here is the yearly market cycle, not an actual drop in prices. For reference, please take a look at Chicago median home prices going back to 2008. 

    https://mred.stats.10kresearch...

    The majority of homes come on the market during the spring and summer months, those that don't sell quickly are forced to make price drops or come off the market as they move into the slow season (Nov-Feb). Chicago home prices have seen a change with the increase in interest rates, but it's more a plateauing than a steep drop.

    https://mred.stats.10kresearch...

  • Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    These price reductions are significantly higher then what we normally see as a seasonal drop. 2021 saw a 11.9% seasonal drop and 2020 saw only a 10.6% seasonal drop, we are at nearly double those rates right now. 

    The 2-4 units are very supply limited and there is a ton of demand chasing these deals I could see this being the price bottom but a cooler market with more concessions, etc. being 2023. I think the 5+ deals will see the most pain and have not bottomed.

  • Jonathan KlemmBusiness Member
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    Contractor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    Hey @Henry Lazerow - Hope you are right about the 5+ because I'll be staying an active Chicago buyer for heavily distressed multi-family buildings.  I don't wish bad fortune on anyone but if some ARMs come up, I'll be there with an offer that makes sense for us.

    Henry, which banks are these loan numbers coming from?  Always looking for solid portfolio lenders.

  • Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    @Jonathan Klemm shoot me a PM for the emails.

    2-4s you can still find opportunities to raise rents and cashflow but the 5+ seem much more savvy with set pricing at mainly cap rates below the interest rate right now which is not sustainable in a market like chicago maybe in Miami or hyper growth areas but not here, also agree these ARMS may push some owners to sell when the reset comes. 

  • Eudith VacioPro Member
    Real Estate Agent · Chicago & NWI · Member since 2015 · 860 posts · 521 votes
    3y

    @Henry Lazerow - I definitely agree that buyers that backed off last year are coming back on the market. It will definitely be an interesting year to see what happens with prices and interest rates. There's alway opportunity to find below market deals and now I have especially noticed better negotiations with offering below list price and asking for concessions! 

  • Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 175 posts · 86 votes
    3y

    @Eudith VacioWhat about 5+ in NWI? Also, @Jonathan Klemm We need a documentary/class on how you rehab a small multi family!

  • Jonathan KlemmBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Contractor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    Yo @Connor O'Brien - We actually do a virtual project walkthrough once a month now of different projects we have going on around Chicago.  You should join the next one if you are free, they are on the 1st Saturday of each month.

    Like anything, having a successful rehab is about building the right team.

  • Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 175 posts · 86 votes
    3y

    Will do!

  • Eudith VacioPro Member
    Real Estate Agent · Chicago & NWI · Member since 2015 · 860 posts · 521 votes
    3y

    @Connor O'Brien - NWI is ok fire with investors but 5+ units are usually snatched pretty quickly especially if they are turnkey units 

  • Member since 2020 · 239 posts · 104 votes
    3y

    Correct me if I am wrong, but 2-4 units as it may seem that prices are coming down, if they are occupied with their respective market rate rents, I don't see how a seller would bring the price down from last year if the rental income is solid? I don't see it. I would generically argue that my building is worth : 

    VALUE = Gross Potential Income X GRM (just learned this, Real Estate by The Numbers, J Scott!)

    Is this a fairly accurate way of looking at it? 

  • Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    5+ is valued mainly off their cap rate/GRM. 2-4 units are sold off comps 80% and maybe 20% off what their rents are, which is nice as gives opportunities to cashflow/buy mom and pop under rented buildings to raise rents. Most of the deals I broker on buy side are well under market rents but unfortunately raising those rents alone doesn't really add to the value significantly. The updated kitchens/bathrooms. etc. do as they raise the value of the comparative sales in area.

  • Member since 2020 · 11 posts · 10 votes
    3y

    @Jonathan Klemm is that virtual rehab open to everyone or is that more for business purposes only? It would be interesting as a beginning investor to see how it’s done. Thought I would ask 

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