New Investor Looking at Multi Family Deal

New Investor Looking at Multi Family Deal

Denver, CO · Member since 2016 · 5 posts · 0 votes

I am a new investor based in Denver looking to do my first Multi-Family deal with a goal of purchasing 1-2 deals per year.  I have a deal I am looking at in Denver that is Pre-Market but I am not sure if the numbers make sense.  

It is in Westminster about 1 block from the new lightrail station opening up this summer that over the next 5 years include millions of dollars in redevelopment including high end apartments, parks, retail, etc.  The redevelopment property line will but up to my property line. This is all good but I feel it is overpriced with a cap rate just under 6% but in a sense its not overpriced as Denver is exploding right now.

I've been looking at this trying to get my head around it. Here's a couple thoughts;

-$1.4 mil purchase price with 30% down is $420k means approximate mortgage of $1 mil

- mortgage payment would be approximately $5500 per month.

-Yearly mortgage expense is approximately $66k

-If you use the proforma numbers they have on their brochure, yearly income minus expenses is about $85k

-Income minus mortgage expense ($85k-$66k) is $19k

-With a down payment of $420k that makes your return 4.5%

The real potential here is the 5 year outlook on the property being bought by a developer or rents going up 25% and then you can make a few hundred K on the deal.

http://www.denverpost.com/arvada/ci_27684383/227-million-projects-bring-780-living-units-downtown

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  • Realtor · Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    What are the "ACTUAL" rents? Will these units compete with the new ones being built? 

    As a "new" investor, I'd try something a bit smaller to see how it goes. What does your Realtor say about the comps, etc in the area? How do they compare with this unit?

  • Investor · Topeka, KS · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    I agree with @Matt M.. 

    1.  What are the actual numbers?  I guarantee they aren't what is on their brochure.

    2.  Don't purchase based on what might happen in the future.  Purchase for solid cash flow now and in the future.

    3.  It sounds like the boom that may happen is not secret so the market may already have that boom calculated into the price you are paying.

    4.  If your going to make a mistake, make it a small one.  You have all the time in the world to build a solid real estate business.  You don't need to try and win the lottery right off the bat.

  • Investor · Topeka, KS · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    Just like in poker, play at the stakes that your bankroll can support.  If you don't move beyond your bankroll carefully you will get chewed up and spit out and won't even realize it until it's all gone.

    Start small, learn the game, build your bankroll, and tip toe to the next level.  That's how your going to build a machine where-in you insert $1 and it spits out $1.20 at the other end.

  • Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2016 · 213 posts · 57 votes
    10y

    @Matthew Grabau   The light rail went thru lakewood 3 years ago... land around some of the stations is starting to get some (not lots) of development.   does your 4plex have any additional land with it.  your density should go way up Westminster could tell you this.  just for grins you could look at commercial property in lakewood at 13th and upham.. 3 plex with some open land for 675k ...  with the zoning upham you could possibly build another 3plex or stacked 4plex for the additional 700k...  I happen to think this 3plex at upham is crazy high but I am a bit of a chicken.  smiles and good luck.

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2016 · 5 posts · 0 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Jacob Sampson:

    I agree with @Matt M.. 

    1.  What are the actual numbers?  I guarantee they aren't what is on their brochure.

    2.  Don't purchase based on what might happen in the future.  Purchase for solid cash flow now and in the future.

    3.  It sounds like the boom that may happen is not secret so the market may already have that boom calculated into the price you are paying.

    4.  If your going to make a mistake, make it a small one.  You have all the time in the world to build a solid real estate business.  You don't need to try and win the lottery right off the bat.

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2016 · 5 posts · 0 votes
    10y
    Rents right now are just under $10,000 a month for the 12 units and probably a little bit of room to go.  He is getting $950 for the 2 bedroom's and $850 for the 1 bedrooms.  I think these are a little low still but up over $300 per unit in rent over the past 18 months.  Those of you from Denver probably agree that this is happening everywhere right now.

    I dont think the Boom of whats happening around it are calculated into the price but two years ago a class B rental building would see for around $60K a unit in greater denver and now in 2015 smaller units are going for $115K a unit and there is no supply under $2M  

    I figure If Im going to pay close to $500K for a Four-Plex I might as well buy something thats worth it.  I just dont know if cashflowing say $20,000 a year is worth it on $400K down payment.

    Everything I listen to says to buy in your market but Denver is crazy.


    Originally posted by @Matthew Grabau:
    Originally posted by @Jacob Sampson:

    I agree with @Matt M.. 

    1.  What are the actual numbers?  I guarantee they aren't what is on their brochure.

    2.  Don't purchase based on what might happen in the future.  Purchase for solid cash flow now and in the future.

    3.  It sounds like the boom that may happen is not secret so the market may already have that boom calculated into the price you are paying.

    4.  If your going to make a mistake, make it a small one.  You have all the time in the world to build a solid real estate business.  You don't need to try and win the lottery right off the bat.

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2016 · 5 posts · 0 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Matt M.:

    What are the "ACTUAL" rents? Will these units compete with the new ones being built? 

    As a "new" investor, I'd try something a bit smaller to see how it goes. What does your Realtor say about the comps, etc in the area? How do they compare with this unit?

    The rents in January are $9875 total.  So at say $950 for a two bedroom the new ones built will be at $1800 for a 2 bedroom.  It is the new lightrail station in Arvada but the only one with this buildout so far.  I think in the denver area it would be considered a strong deal but the entire Denver area is inflated so its hard to compare.  To give you an idea it sold for just under $700K two years ago with maybe 100K of improvements max.  

  • Investor · Topeka, KS · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    @Matthew Grabau

    I agree with you that $20k a year in cash flow is not worth investing $400k for.  Also, and I don't mean to be a negative nelly but, I question whether you even have $20k.  For $10k/month in rental income, I top out at $600k.

    Try rent - 30% - PITI what sort of cash flow do you have after that calculation?

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2016 · 5 posts · 0 votes
    10y
    Jacob Sampson If I do your calculation I come out to around $1400 per month positive as is. I'm not sure what you mean by asking if I have 20k? Is that an insult of some kind?
  • Investor · Topeka, KS · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    No, No, No.  I apologize, I did not mean any insult.  I must just type assholishly.  If I want to quickly decide if a deal as the potential for the level of cash flow I require I do rent X's 60.  Your purchase price is outside of my range so I wasn't certain that you had the $20k in cash flow and didn't know how you came to that number.

    I am pretty conservative and don't like to take a lot of risk so that is the background from which I provide my advice/opinion.

  • Bill S.Pro Member
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    Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Matthew Grabau all "premarket" means is that the listing broker is trying to get both ends of the deal. It doesn't mean it's a good price.

    What do the units need to charge higher rents? You indicated they spent $100,000 on the property over the past few years. What did they not do? Old property always needs work. What expenses are hidden? My guess is that you will be feeding this monster for a year or so and your $20K of cash flow will be followed by some more of your hard earned money.

    Don't let the location suck you to a bad deal. What if the economy turns and all those millions don't get spent redeveloping the area? Your goose is cooked. I would pass on a 6 cap in Westminster. I think there are better buys in the market. If you find a better deal you won't have to put 30% down either. Keep shopping.

  • Investor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2014 · 10 posts · 9 votes
    10y

    Denver is nuts, but I think your margin is still a little thin. I did find a much larger property listed in westminster a little further from the light rail at an 8 cap. It's just a *wee* bit out of my price range. The pro forma of course would suggest that you could raise the rents   to market and then reach the 1% rule and a corresponding 9 cap. My "wishful thinking" alarms go off on that one. I worry about the long term rents - the renters I know are very constrained as the year over year increases keep coming. How long can that last?

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