Feedback on 1st deal (Buy & Hold in Logan Square, Chicago)

Feedback on 1st deal (Buy & Hold in Logan Square, Chicago)

Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 35 posts · 20 votes

I'm in the middle of purchasing what will be my first investment property and would love some feedback on both the accuracy of my analysis and whether this property was a good selection. The main goal with the investment is to find property in an "A" location that will be low risk (very easy to rent) and sufficiently cash flow positive. The property I chose is a condo across the street from the Logan Square CTA train station. I've lived in the neighborhood close to 10 years now and, perhaps naively, thought that even if the investment metrics didn't show that it were a stellar choice, the location might serve to make it worthwhile given the demand and momentum which exists in RE here locally.

The analysis below shows how things look for both 15yr and 30yr financing, and I'm curious to know how people weigh that choice. I went with the 15yr loan putting down 30% to save on interest and get the loan paid off ASAP, since this is a Buy & Hold play. I didn't budget for any vacancies after speaking with another owner in the building I'm buying into. He's had a rental for 3+ years there and never had a vacancy given the prime location. I also already have a tenant lined up for at least the first couple years. The other item I didn't budget for are repairs, although my reason is less than stellar in this case. The condo is turn key ready and I figure my home inspection next week should surface most/all of the big ticket items that might need repairs, which I can try to work into the negotiations between the seller and myself. 

All feedback and constructive criticism are welcome.

Thanks in advance!

Property Purchase
Purchase Price $ 215,000.00 $ 215,000.00
Down Payment % 30.00% 30.00%
Down Payment $ 64,500.00 $ 64,500.00
Mortgage Amount $ 150,500.00 $ 150,500.00
Mortgage Interest Rate (annual) 3.500% 4.375%
Mortgage Amortization Term (years) 15 30
Mortgage Monthly Payment $1,075.90 $751.42
   
Property Rental Income
Annual Vacancy Rate 0.00% 0.00%
Monthly Rent - Unit 1 $ 1,700.00 $ 1,700.00
Monthly Rent - Unit 2 $ - $ -
Monthly Rent - Unit 3 $ - $ -
Gross Monthly Income $ 1,700.00 $ 1,700.00
Potential Annual Income $ 20,400.00 $ 20,400.00
Less: Vacancy $ - $ -
Annual Rental Income $ 20,400.00 $ 20,400.00
   
Annual Operating Expenses
Property Taxes $ 1,662.00 $ 1,662.00
HOA Fees $ 2,496.00 $ 2,496.00
Insurance $ 201.00 $ 201.00
Utilities $ - $ -
Leasing & Advertising $ - $ -
Property Management $ - $ -
Repairs $ - $ -
Maintenance $ - $ -
Accounting & Legal $ - $ -
Total Expenses $ 4,359.00 $ 4,359.00
Monthly Mortgage & Expenses $ 1,439.15 $ 1,114.67
   
Net Operating Income & Cash Flow Summary
Annual Rental Income $ 20,400.00 $ 20,400.00
Less: Annual Operating Expenses $ 4,359.00 $ 4,359.00
Net Operating Income $ 16,041.00 $ 16,041.00
Less: Annual Mortgage Payment $ 12,910.78 $ 9,017.09
Net Income / Cash Flow $ 3,130.22 $ 7,023.91
Net Income / Cash Flow (Monthly) $ 260.85 $ 585.33
   
Less: Depreciation Expense (1/27.5 of cost) $ (7,818.18) $ (7,818.18)
Taxable Net Income (Loss) $ (4,687.96) $ (794.27)
   
Property Metrics & Analysis
CAP Rate 7.46% 7.46%
Gross Rent Multiplier
lower is better
10.54 10.54
Cash on Cash Return (CoC ROI) 4.85% 10.89%
Cash Flow Profit Margin 15.34% 34.43%
Cashflow / Assets 1.46% 3.27%
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Mike D'ArrigoPro Member
Turn key provider · San Jose, CA · Member since 2010 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
10y

@Keith Ellis It looks like the owner in the building hasn't had any maintenance and repairs either. I don't see that you factored anything for that either. You absolutely have to reserve for vacancies and maintenance. Just because the other guy has been lucky and hasn't had a vacancy in 3 years doesn't mean that YOU won't. That's not a realistic assumption. You will have repairs also. Your CAP rates and COC returns are low without vacancy and maintenance. They're going to be a lot worse when you factor those expenses in.

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  • Mike D'ArrigoPro Member
    Turn key provider · San Jose, CA · Member since 2010 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    10y

    @Keith Ellis It looks like the owner in the building hasn't had any maintenance and repairs either. I don't see that you factored anything for that either. You absolutely have to reserve for vacancies and maintenance. Just because the other guy has been lucky and hasn't had a vacancy in 3 years doesn't mean that YOU won't. That's not a realistic assumption. You will have repairs also. Your CAP rates and COC returns are low without vacancy and maintenance. They're going to be a lot worse when you factor those expenses in.

  • Rental Property Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2016 · 23 posts · 10 votes
    10y

    Hello @Keith Ellis, 

    I think it's important that you account for vacancy and R&M. Although your neighbor hasn't experienced any vacancy in the past 3 yrs doesn't mean that would be the same for you. 

    @Brandon Turner did an amazing post titled the ultimate guide on analyzing rental properties.  The link is below.

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2014/09/2...

    It helped me do a thorough  analysis on property I already have. 

    I hope this helps! :) 

  • Crystal SmithPro Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Chicago, IL · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Keith Ellis:

     I didn't budget for any vacancies after speaking with another owner in the building I'm buying into. The other item I didn't budget for are repairs, although my reason is less than stellar in this case. The condo is turn key ready and I figure my home inspection next week should surface most/all of the big ticket items that might need repairs, which I can try to work into the negotiations between the seller and myself. 



    You're starting your investment career w/ a bad business practice; i.e. not assuming some vacancy, maintenance and/or reserves needed for CAPEX. I would make some assumptions, even if they are optimistic assumptions.

  • Buffalo Grove, IL · Member since 2015 · 31 posts · 1 vote
    10y

    In Logan square you'll be hard pressed to find a cash flowing property that isn't a 10+ Unit building. This condo would only be a play on appreciation, I am personally looking for an investment as well, but it seems like the only areas that aren't war zones that cash flow at least something will be around Humboldt park (The nice part of it), Belmont Craigin and Belmont Gardens. I actually just drove around that area yesterday, and it's definitely on the rise, especially around that walking/biking trail.

  • Investor · Oak Park, IL · Member since 2014 · 316 posts · 150 votes
    10y

    What I like about Logan Square is it seems to be on the path of progress.  It seems to have its ups and downs since I have been active in 1985.  Wicker Park has shown much growth, and Logan Square is showing growth, and it is close to the Loop by train.  What I like about these areas is if you run an advertisement, you should get quite a few responses.  Certain parts of Humboldt Park have similar characteristics.

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 35 posts · 20 votes
    10y

    Thanks for the great feedback everyone! I'm now budgeting a big for vacancy, management, repairs, and cap ex. Even though the numbers don't look that great on this condo, I'm hopeful that the prime location (across the street from the Logan El) will make this appreciation play pay off in the long term.

    @Peter Kush and @Mike Nelson, I agree completely about your analysis of Logan. It's gotten so hot around here. It's hard to believe how quickly sellers are finding buyers.

  • Investor · Oak Park, IL · Member since 2014 · 316 posts · 150 votes
    10y

    Google "M Fishman"  , Logan Square landlord.  Interesting read.  Fishman has purchased several properties in Logan Square, and has raised rents (sometimes $200+) to current market, making old-time residents unhappy.

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 35 posts · 20 votes
    10y

    @Mike Nelson I've lived in Logan the better part of 10 years and while I've never lived in one of Fishman's rentals, I am familiar with him and his sleezy practices. Many, including myself, view him as your typical slum lord.

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 35 posts · 20 votes
    10y

    When it comes to screening prospective tenants for income, do folks rely on a service for this or by calling on the phone? I'm about to start screening tenants and planned to use TransUnion's SmartMove for background and credit checks, but was hoping there might be a one-stop shop of sorts that would include income verification as well.

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