Deal Analysis - PA Investor in NJ

Deal Analysis - PA Investor in NJ

Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2017 · 824 posts · 1k+ votes

Hi all! I recently sold my SFR that I was renting out - it was my first home I decided to keep to "get into the biz" but the numbers just weren't working. I was able to get some proceeds from that sale and I'm ready for my first purchase.

I found a property in NJ (I am in PA - Philadelphia) close to me, and the numbers seem almost too good to be true. I hesitate to give away too much info so I will provide some raw information that I think should be helpful:

Purchase Price:  $120,000

Financing:  Conventional 25% down at 4%

Yearly Taxes:  ~$4500 (thanks NJ...)

Units:  2 (one 3BR and one 2BR)

Area Rents:  ~$1000 for a 2 BR

I've run the numbers at $2000 per month for both units ($24,000 annually) and a 10% vacancy rate...$21,600 in NOI

The mortgage would be around $1000 per month for PITI (perhaps even slightly less)...$12,000 in TOE

  • Cash flow is $800 per month
  • CoC Return is 32% (!!!)
  • Cap Rate is 8%

Unless I'm wrong, this seems like a no-brainer deal with great numbers as an investor, no? What am I missing?!

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  • Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2017 · 364 posts · 109 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Joe P.:

    Hi all! I recently sold my SFR that I was renting out - it was my first home I decided to keep to "get into the biz" but the numbers just weren't working. I was able to get some proceeds from that sale and I'm ready for my first purchase.

    I found a property in NJ (I am in PA - Philadelphia) close to me, and the numbers seem almost too good to be true. I hesitate to give away too much info so I will provide some raw information that I think should be helpful:

    Purchase Price:  $120,000

    Financing:  Conventional 25% down at 4%

    Yearly Taxes:  ~$4500 (thanks NJ...)

    Units:  2 (one 3BR and one 2BR)

    Area Rents:  ~$1000 for a 2 BR

    I've run the numbers at $2000 per month for both units ($24,000 annually) and a 10% vacancy rate...$21,600 in NOI

    The mortgage would be around $1000 per month for PITI (perhaps even slightly less)...$12,000 in TOE

    • Cash flow is $800 per month
    • CoC Return is 32% (!!!)
    • Cap Rate is 8%

    Unless I'm wrong, this seems like a no-brainer deal with great numbers as an investor, no? What am I missing?!

     What is the neighborhood like? Schools? As a new investor quality of tenants is very important for me. I am staying away from high risk areas, even if cash flow is good. That's untill I get more experience .

  • Investor · Morris Plains, NJ · Member since 2017 · 294 posts · 47 votes
    8y

    @Joe P. you are missing your reserves.  

    Property management ( budget for it even if you’re self managing)

    Capex/maintanence (depends on age of property, how old the major equipment in the property are)

    Who handles the utilities? Most likely you will have some small utilies like electric for Hallways etc so budget for that too

    also check that the rent rates are accurate. 

    Double check the area (major crime area etc) 

    . 

  • Real Estate Agent · Princeton, NJ · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8y

    @Joe P. - Check to see what properties are worth now versus what they were worth 5-10 years ago. Make sure the area is appreciating or holding steady. A lot of real estate in NJ falls in value as the property taxes rise because let's face it, you can afford less 30-year financing in your mortgage payment when $500/mo goes to property taxes. 

    Use the Free Calculator on Bigger Pockets.

    Rent (check out craigslist posts for similar units nearby - what does your renter consider equivalent?)

    Vacancy: 5-10% (8% is 1 month/year/unit)

    Capex: 5% (keeping things updated / reserves)

    Maintenance: 5% (keeping things working)

    Utilities: Any water, electricity, landscaping, trash, etc., you pay

    Landlord License / Inspections / Fees / Code Enforcement: If any

    Property Taxes

    Landlord Insurance

    Also contributing to ROI: Appreciation/Depreciation and Turnover Expenses in excess of Security Deposit

  • Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2017 · 824 posts · 1k+ votes
    8y

    Thank you to everyone who replied - let me see if I can adjust the numbers here slightly and respond to your questions/feedback (which I GREATLY appreciate!)

    @Lana Lee: the neighborhood is blue collar. Schools aren't that great in NJ to begin with; the town reminds me of Roebling, NJ, if you've ever been there. Its got some grit to it but the proximity to Philadelphia and other nearby NJ towns is very good. While my renting experience is not as extensive as some, I've found "quality" tenants to be difficult in their own ways. I want to provide safe, affordable housing to people who need a safe and affordable home, and want to treat the property well. I don't consider the neighborhood to be high risk at all - my rule of thumb is that if I wouldn't live there, personally, I don't want to invest there either. I would live in this neighborhood.

    @Rigo V.and @Natalie Schanne, you make some great points, so I'll add them into my analysis:

    Property Management - I believe most firms charge in the ~8% range? If so, assume $160 p/m at $2000 rental income.

    Vacancy - was already applied (at 10%)

    CapEx - will go with 10% to be safe, although we all know a new roof or something can blow that out of the water. Assume $200 p/m at $2000 rental income.

    Maintenance - assume 5% although I think this is generous, so assume $100 p/m at $2000 rental income.

    Utilities - assume I will pay water, which will probably be $75 per unit, so $150 p/m

    Landlord License/Inspections/Fees/etc. - not aware of any

    Property Taxes - already accounted for in PITI

    Landlord Insurance - assume you are talking about a landlord policy? If so I've budgeted $120 per month earlier.

    Bringing us home, I am adding $610 p/m to my total expenses (160+200+100+150):

    • $2000 per month for both units ($24,000 annually) and a 10% vacancy rate...$21,600 in NOI
    • The PITI would be around $1000 per month (perhaps even slightly less)...$12,000 in TOE
    • CapEx+ is $610 per month...$7,320 in CapEx+ (does this feel like a high number to anyone?)

    Based on the above, clearing $190 p/m, or $95 per door.

  • Real Estate Agent · Princeton, NJ · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8y

    @Joe P. - ok so at 190/mo you're making a 7.6% return (ballpark) on your $30,000 (25% down payment). This is without any rehab or other cash costs like closing. Boosting your ROI is the tax advantage of depreciation over time.

    I like to buy ugly, fix and refi. This requires more initial cash out of pocket but I get ‘free equity.’

    In a year when stocks gain 15-25% without doing anything...

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