Your future as a worker looks bleak.
Most Popular Reply
Henderson, NV · Member since 2014 · 111 posts · 163 votes
9yOkay, 25+ year veteran of the tech industry. Was in before the first website existed and have done the bubble and burst.
If I wanted to take the time, I could probably find you this same scare story written in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. The AI and robots are going to take our jobs theme has been around a long time but in 40 years . . . the impacts has been rather subdued.
And while AI has many practical applications, the predictions of the mass extinction of need for humans tends to forget we still have so few actual needs for AI at the moment. I mean, look at this story citing a single example of the burger bot over and over again to stress how easy it is to kill 3 million jobs. But the number of people who cook only burgers is not 3 million. It's not an article written to give one a realistic look at the potential impact of AI and bots, rather it's purpose is to scare you.
There really are a lot of holes in this story. Like noting that there was an economic shift in the 1970s but back in the 1970s computing was a negligible blip in terms to contributing to that change. Yet it then quickly forgets all of the other economic factors which lead to wages being flat vs. productivity and somehow attributes nearly everything to technology after that.
Not that I'm saying that AI won't change our lives or that many jobs will be automated. But someone here suggested we're not that far away from computers being able to write sophisticated applications . . . I don't see that. Right now, AI can barely write very structured copy like stock market reports and sports scores where it's mostly MadLib style plugging in of data. "The market [rose] today [75 points] on [strength in industrials]." Writing quality consumer oriented software would be like extrapolating this neat little copywriting trick into writing a novel. That, I'm fairly confident, won't happen in my lifetime.
But should computers take the job of somebody who was writing market recap reports like a mindless machine anyway? I don't see any harm in that for the job market other than we really should be taking a very close look at how we educate people for the future. Probably 60% of college majors should be done away with or at the very least, no public funds (student loans) should be put towards funding educational paths that will lead to people with skills that have near zero value to society.
I've hired hundreds of college grads over my career and it's so sad to see someone dump tens of thousands of dollars and four years of their life into a degree that makes them less qualified for an entry level job than someone who at least has held a job at McDonald's for four years.
In the past just having a piece of paper from a four year university was enough to guarantee middle class membership. But that's not true anymore. Train people to move up the value ladder so they can get jobs that aren't easily replaced by AI or robots.
One of the causes of income inequality (but far from the only cause) is that there's a shortage of labor in the highest paying fields (which is why they're the highest paying fields). We keep graduating people with degrees, and charging them tens of thousands of dollars, that are over saturating the market with college educated people who aren't prepared for a career path that will lead to middle class incomes. Those that actually get a degree in a field with high demand end up making magnitudes more income than everyone else.
I also find it amusing that the theme of this post was that jobs are going away so invest in RE. Except, evaluating deals is a pretty automatable job. Even property management can be highly automated. Why can't you have a self-serve, totally automated system to place ads, screen tenants, collect rents, and file eviction notices?
If the OP's thesis is correct then the ultra wealthy will simply employ an army of AI bots to scour the market for deals 24/7 and purchase it the same way that bots trade the stock market with little human input. The market will become highly efficient and spreads will become so thin that you'll be lucky to be making $1 a door.
Sorry, you can't have it both ways. If bots are going to automate us all out of jobs your job is just as automatable as everyone else's.
70 Replies
- Investor · Downers Grove, IL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 955 votes9y
thanks for sharing @Jon Q.
It is definitely true if your job is easily replaceable.
Automation and technology could displace "lower level" jobs, but the demand for engineers, programmers and people with technical skills and knowledge will only go up. These jobs will also be much higher paying.
One can already start seeing the demographic change in the rust belts and manufacturing hubs compared to the technology driven areas. Not to mention this coming election as well.
Besides owning income producing assets, you, as a worker need to invest in your skills and knowledge to be relevant in tomorrow's economy.
- 9yJon Q.Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votesOP
Originally posted by @Chris T.:
thanks for sharing @Jon Q.
It is definitely true if your job is easily replaceable.
Automation and technology could displace "lower level" jobs, but the demand for engineers, programmers and people with technical skills and knowledge will only go up. These jobs will also be much higher paying.
One can already start seeing the demographic change in the rust belts and manufacturing hubs compared to the technology driven areas. Not to mention this coming election as well.
Besides owning income producing assets, you, as a worker need to invest in your skills and knowledge to be relevant in tomorrow's economy.
I agree with you in regard to pay in the short term... save and invest that money.
But in long-term...Your job will also be replaceable. Automation of software engineering is possible and, given dramatic advances in AI, it may happen sooner we think.
- Investor · Downers Grove, IL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 955 votes9y
Agreed that EVERYONE's job is replaceable. However, those with technical knowledge and skills are always in need.
Who is going to fix that self-driving car when it breaks down? Or trouble shoot a software issue when AI fails?
There is going to be a lot of push back on AI. People want control over machines, not the other way around. With new technology comes new opportunities.
- 9yJon Q.Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votesOP
Originally posted by @Chris T.:
Agreed that EVERYONE's job is replaceable. However, those with technical knowledge and skills are always in need.
Who is going to fix that self-driving car when it breaks down? Or trouble shoot a software issue when AI fails?
There is going to be a lot of push back on AI. People want control over machines, not the other way around. With new technology comes new opportunities.
Yes, but the problem we're seeing in Silicon Valley is engineers cannot learn fast enough. This explains MAKE and other intense programming schools that teach already gifted engineers (ex MIT grads) the latest coding languages and techniques. Educational institutions do not innovate fast enough and never will. This gap will widen dramatically in the next few years. At some point AI will learn much faster than humans can. A good argument, but it's being proven a failing argument. The jobs that every said would be created ARE NOT actually being created.
Did you read the full article? It is happening now.
- Buy & Hold Owner · Redlands, CA · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes9y
Originally posted by @Chris T.:
thanks for sharing @Jon Q.
It is definitely true if your job is easily replaceable.
Automation and technology could displace "lower level" jobs, but the demand for engineers, programmers and people with technical skills and knowledge will only go up. These jobs will also be much higher paying.
Worked in 'hi-tech' for 37 years and this is true. It is also true that these are hi-stress, hi-hours required as they are IRS classified as Exempt Employes and thus work for fixed salaries w/o OT.
- Investor · Downers Grove, IL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 955 votes9y
Very interesting discussion about AI. Definitely agree it will surpass our intelligence as a species at some point. I definitely didn't realize that it is happening much faster now especially in the Silicon Valley.
Do you think we're witnessing man kind's destruction as Stephen Hawkings predict? Without jobs, no one is going to cease to exist.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Letter_on_Artif...
@Jay J. good one!
- 9yJon Q.Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votesOP
Originally posted by @Chris T.:
Very interesting discussion about AI. Definitely agree it will surpass our intelligence as a species at some point. I definitely didn't realize that it is happening much faster now especially in the Silicon Valley.
Do you think we're witnessing man kind's destruction as Stephen Hawkings predict? Without jobs, no one is going to cease to exist.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Letter_on_Artif...
@Jay J. good one!
No one knows man. I certainly hope human beings are smart enough to developing ways of insuring the survival of our species, but...look at what we're doing to our planet?
I'm starting to think that the quotes in Matrix are accurate. Consiousness = control/expansion/destruction... Human beings may be destined to destroy the environment and themselves.
I am very concerned.
- Software Developer · Vidor, TX · Member since 2015 · 922 posts · 639 votes9y
The development of an AI system that can interpret scope of work and not only write code but utilize the latest and greatest SDK's, use different development environments, download/install/configure frameworks/DBMS and use appropriate languages in the most efficient manner is way off. Not to mention being able to debug, test and deploy those applications into production.
If anything, you'll see even higher level programming and the market will become more saturated due to lowering the barrier of entry and the overall difficulty of development in general.
People learn basic fundamentals in college and have to be trained more often than not in the specifics of the company. The company and it's vision are what innovate, not the universities.
The day a programming AI comes into being, you can bet your *** I'll be the one making the purchase order, on the phone with technical support setting it up or scoping out the infrastructure needed and monitoring the process(es) to make sure projects are working and deployed on time.
You could say the same about robotics and being able to have machines produce housing cheaper with urban development tax write-offs pricing you out of the rental market. But the technology isn't cost effective or practical. Especially when you have AI developers and robotics engineers as foremans.
- Investor · Downers Grove, IL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 955 votes9y
- 9yJon Q.Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votesOP
Originally posted by @Jeff B.:
Originally posted by @Chris T.:
thanks for sharing @Jon Q.
It is definitely true if your job is easily replaceable.
Automation and technology could displace "lower level" jobs, but the demand for engineers, programmers and people with technical skills and knowledge will only go up. These jobs will also be much higher paying.
Worked in 'hi-tech' for 37 years and this is true. It is also true that these are hi-stress, hi-hours required as they are IRS classified as Exempt Employes and thus work for fixed salaries w/o OT.
Half of my friends work at Google, Facebook, or Twitter. TV glamorizes it, but their jobs suck...and startup life sucks (I started one). Over-worked, never leave the office, no life outside of work. I would never trade that for what I do now. Must own income producing assets.
- 9yJon Q.Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votesOP
Originally posted by @Chris T.:
I think Mother Nature helps a lot. That explains what we're terming "natural catastrophies".
It's nature telling us that we need to change our course. But are we listening? No! We continue building in unsafe areas, injecting toxic chemicals into the ground, poising our environment with petroleum based products, extinction of plant and animal species, and enslaving and killing each other. I think it'll get worse, if and when it ever gets better.
- 9yJon Q.Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votesOP
Originally posted by @Chris T.:
Institutions move at difference speeds....
Corporate.............................Education......Legal System......Government...etc.
Corporations and the speed of innovation moves much faster than government's ability to regulate, than universities ability to educate, than the legal system's ability to appropriately resolve legal disputes.
I think what's needed is...
(1) New edutech startups/orgs to be developed to help people get practical education/skills required to meet employers current HR needs. Corporations will likely begin developing their own schools to serve their own needs (this happened with a Bank in Brazil that couldn't location enough qualified prospects).
(2) Patent System overhaul....Due to speed of innovation, our patent system now discourages, not encourages innovation.
(3) Remove all money from politics (unfortunately, I don't think this will happen).
(4) All countries must develop a global governmental body and give it sufficient power to effectively police and punish corporations that commit crimes globally, particularly in countries with little power. Many multinational corporations have more money and power than country governments (ex. Chevron, Exxon, Apple, Google, Koch Industries, etc.)
(5) Adopt National Living Wage or some system to ensure survival for the massive job loss that will likely begin occurring when a larger percentage of U.S. jobs are automated...
(6) 100% Recycle. Draft New Law that (1) requires all components of products produced in the United States be 100% recyceable and (2) that the company be required to accept and recycle ALL PRODUCTS and components that it manufactures.
Many of these things are already happening in other countries...
- Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes9y
Jon S for president!
Skyline Properties - 9yJon Q.Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votesOP
Originally posted by @JD Martin:
Jon S for president!
Not interested. The president is mostly a figure head, but if not, I still would not be interested.
- Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes9y
Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
Originally posted by @JD Martin:
Jon S for president!
Not interested. The president is mostly a figure head, but if not, I still would not be interested.
And therein lies the problem....good people don't want to serve! :)
Skyline Properties - Investor · Downers Grove, IL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 955 votes9y
Great ideas! I'm sure some politicians start out wanting to make a change for the good but got swayed by outside influences and pressure.
- 9yJon Q.Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votesOP
Originally posted by @Chris T.:
Great ideas! I'm sure some politicians start out wanting to make a change for the good but got swayed by outside influences and pressure.
I increasingly think that our society had outgrown our government structure and its usefulness.
Government is now trying to play catch up (ex regulatory bodies failing to effectively regulate ; guns, environment, etc), but never will effectively catch up.
- Henderson, NV · Member since 2014 · 111 posts · 163 votes9y
Okay, 25+ year veteran of the tech industry. Was in before the first website existed and have done the bubble and burst.
If I wanted to take the time, I could probably find you this same scare story written in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. The AI and robots are going to take our jobs theme has been around a long time but in 40 years . . . the impacts has been rather subdued.
And while AI has many practical applications, the predictions of the mass extinction of need for humans tends to forget we still have so few actual needs for AI at the moment. I mean, look at this story citing a single example of the burger bot over and over again to stress how easy it is to kill 3 million jobs. But the number of people who cook only burgers is not 3 million. It's not an article written to give one a realistic look at the potential impact of AI and bots, rather it's purpose is to scare you.
There really are a lot of holes in this story. Like noting that there was an economic shift in the 1970s but back in the 1970s computing was a negligible blip in terms to contributing to that change. Yet it then quickly forgets all of the other economic factors which lead to wages being flat vs. productivity and somehow attributes nearly everything to technology after that.
Not that I'm saying that AI won't change our lives or that many jobs will be automated. But someone here suggested we're not that far away from computers being able to write sophisticated applications . . . I don't see that. Right now, AI can barely write very structured copy like stock market reports and sports scores where it's mostly MadLib style plugging in of data. "The market [rose] today [75 points] on [strength in industrials]." Writing quality consumer oriented software would be like extrapolating this neat little copywriting trick into writing a novel. That, I'm fairly confident, won't happen in my lifetime.
But should computers take the job of somebody who was writing market recap reports like a mindless machine anyway? I don't see any harm in that for the job market other than we really should be taking a very close look at how we educate people for the future. Probably 60% of college majors should be done away with or at the very least, no public funds (student loans) should be put towards funding educational paths that will lead to people with skills that have near zero value to society.
I've hired hundreds of college grads over my career and it's so sad to see someone dump tens of thousands of dollars and four years of their life into a degree that makes them less qualified for an entry level job than someone who at least has held a job at McDonald's for four years.
In the past just having a piece of paper from a four year university was enough to guarantee middle class membership. But that's not true anymore. Train people to move up the value ladder so they can get jobs that aren't easily replaced by AI or robots.
One of the causes of income inequality (but far from the only cause) is that there's a shortage of labor in the highest paying fields (which is why they're the highest paying fields). We keep graduating people with degrees, and charging them tens of thousands of dollars, that are over saturating the market with college educated people who aren't prepared for a career path that will lead to middle class incomes. Those that actually get a degree in a field with high demand end up making magnitudes more income than everyone else.
I also find it amusing that the theme of this post was that jobs are going away so invest in RE. Except, evaluating deals is a pretty automatable job. Even property management can be highly automated. Why can't you have a self-serve, totally automated system to place ads, screen tenants, collect rents, and file eviction notices?
If the OP's thesis is correct then the ultra wealthy will simply employ an army of AI bots to scour the market for deals 24/7 and purchase it the same way that bots trade the stock market with little human input. The market will become highly efficient and spreads will become so thin that you'll be lucky to be making $1 a door.
Sorry, you can't have it both ways. If bots are going to automate us all out of jobs your job is just as automatable as everyone else's.
- Henderson, NV · Member since 2014 · 111 posts · 163 votes9y
Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
Half of my friends work at Google, Facebook, or Twitter. TV glamorizes it, but their jobs suck...and startup life sucks (I started one). Over-worked, never leave the office, no life outside of work. I would never trade that for what I do now. Must own income producing assets.
I would never go back to doing startups in the tech field again either but that whole scene is a young person's game and always has been. I have friends who work in law firms and are over-worked, never leave the office, no life outside of work, etc too. I have friends in finance who are over-worked, nver leave the office, no life outside of work, etc too. I have friends in the entertainment industry who . . . . you get the idea.
Almost all high paying career fields have a similar sort of weeding out process. Those who make it past the first few years end up having a lot more choices.
Unfortunately there has never been a career field where you start directly at the two martini lunch stage.
Even in RE, you either start off with a lot of money (usually made by making huge sacrifices like the ones you mentioned) or you put in the hustle which means you're over-worked, always on the look for deals, etc, etc.
You seem to be confusing the fact that you either had access to capital or hustled your way to earning enough income to be where you are today with where people can start off in RE.
- 9yJon Q.Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votesOP
Originally posted by @Bill R.:
Okay, 25+ year veteran of the tech industry. Was in before the first website existed and have done the bubble and burst.
If I wanted to take the time, I could probably find you this same scare story written in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. The AI and robots are going to take our jobs theme has been around a long time but in 40 years . . . the impacts has been rather subdued.
And while AI has many practical applications, the predictions of the mass extinction of need for humans tends to forget we still have so few actual needs for AI at the moment. I mean, look at this story citing a single example of the burger bot over and over again to stress how easy it is to kill 3 million jobs. But the number of people who cook only burgers is not 3 million. It's not an article written to give one a realistic look at the potential impact of AI and bots, rather it's purpose is to scare you.
There really are a lot of holes in this story. Like noting that there was an economic shift in the 1970s but back in the 1970s computing was a negligible blip in terms to contributing to that change. Yet it then quickly forgets all of the other economic factors which lead to wages being flat vs. productivity and somehow attributes nearly everything to technology after that.
Not that I'm saying that AI won't change our lives or that many jobs will be automated. But someone here suggested we're not that far away from computers being able to write sophisticated applications . . . I don't see that. Right now, AI can barely write very structured copy like stock market reports and sports scores where it's mostly MadLib style plugging in of data. "The market [rose] today [75 points] on [strength in industrials]." Writing quality consumer oriented software would be like extrapolating this neat little copywriting trick into writing a novel. That, I'm fairly confident, won't happen in my lifetime.
But should computers take the job of somebody who was writing market recap reports like a mindless machine anyway? I don't see any harm in that for the job market other than we really should be taking a very close look at how we educate people for the future. Probably 60% of college majors should be done away with or at the very least, no public funds (student loans) should be put towards funding educational paths that will lead to people with skills that have near zero value to society.
I've hired hundreds of college grads over my career and it's so sad to see someone dump tens of thousands of dollars and four years of their life into a degree that makes them less qualified for an entry level job than someone who at least has held a job at McDonald's for four years.
In the past just having a piece of paper from a four year university was enough to guarantee middle class membership. But that's not true anymore. Train people to move up the value ladder so they can get jobs that aren't easily replaced by AI or robots.
One of the causes of income inequality (but far from the only cause) is that there's a shortage of labor in the highest paying fields (which is why they're the highest paying fields). We keep graduating people with degrees, and charging them tens of thousands of dollars, that are over saturating the market with college educated people who aren't prepared for a career path that will lead to middle class incomes. Those that actually get a degree in a field with high demand end up making magnitudes more income than everyone else.
I also find it amusing that the theme of this post was that jobs are going away so invest in RE. Except, evaluating deals is a pretty automatable job. Even property management can be highly automated. Why can't you have a self-serve, totally automated system to place ads, screen tenants, collect rents, and file eviction notices?
If the OP's thesis is correct then the ultra wealthy will simply employ an army of AI bots to scour the market for deals 24/7 and purchase it the same way that bots trade the stock market with little human input. The market will become highly efficient and spreads will become so thin that you'll be lucky to be making $1 a door.
Sorry, you can't have it both ways. If bots are going to automate us all out of jobs your job is just as automatable as everyone else's.
I agree with much of what you've said. I hope you're right about AI not automating the job if software engineers in your lifetime.
Property management is not automateable. For the most part, real estate investing (deal making, negotiations, relationship management, etc), is a relationship person to person business. The startups that have tried have achieved very modest to no success and have offered little value (zillow, Trulia, et. al), hence the consolidation (zillow merging with Trulia). The property management software (building, appfolio, etc), offers some value, but can't replace the important relationship management party of property management.
- Flipper/Rehabber · Merced, CA · Member since 2016 · 221 posts · 115 votes9y
40 is the new 30.
A B.S. is the new H.S. diploma.
The middle class job is the new entry level job (for pay & lifestyle).
Google, "Restoring America's Economic Mobility" by Frank Buckley. If you follow John Mauldin, he provides an intro / analysis for his followers (investors). It's a much broader discussion than A.I. but relates to the overall U.S. workforce. Ties in with what our children need to study to stay in the middle class & their ability to move up. - Buy & Hold Owner · Redlands, CA · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes9y
Originally posted by @Chris T.:
Tech R&D (not support) has basically only five regions in the country:
- Seattle / Redmond (aka Microsoft)
- Silicon Valley; Google, Yahoo, Facebook
- Tuscon, AZ
- Huston, TX
- Washington, DC Beltway
All are high cost of living areas and even the techies live hand to mouth.
AI? LOL ! Been there, done that - - B I G hype without delivery. The technologies are capable but our personal machines STILL need decades of improvements; Memory and GHZ cycles. Follow Big Data in the Cloud; that's what's happening there.
I was well paid, but sacrificed personal and family development. To do over, I would go to the Trades. Plumbers & Electricians I know did better than I and were less stressed. Additionally, they could get jobs in any city in the Country.
Like 99% of us, I went chasing the money when I should have been chasing the life style and finding the job that would allow it. It's a priorities and I learned that T O O late.
- Henderson, NV · Member since 2014 · 111 posts · 163 votes9y
Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
I agree with much of what you've said. I hope you're right about AI not automating the job if software engineers in your lifetime.
Property management is not automateable. For the most part, real estate investing (deal making, negotiations, relationship management, etc), is a relationship person to person business. The startups that have tried have achieved very modest to no success and have offered little value (zillow, Trulia, et. al), hence the consolidation (zillow merging with Trulia). The property management software (building, appfolio, etc), offers some value, but can't replace the important relationship management party of property management.
That's what everyone who has had their jobs outsourced overseas has said too. :-)
Why can't you automate property management? Maybe not 100% of it but enough where being a property manager would become relatively mindless work not worth much in terms of wages. List every aspect of property management and I can come up with a way to automate it given enough data and some minor advancements in AI.
Automating placing ads for new tenants? Yep. In fact, you can probably write an app today that would effectively test the response rate and quality of applicant from every type of source.
Give tenants an app and let them report their own maint requests.
Screen tenants? You can write something that crawls into every aspect of a tenants life and scores them for you. Isn't that what a credit score is anyway, except only on limited level. What if a bot would tell you about what they post on FB or Twitter about? Gathered up data on who they were friends with and gave you an idea of what kind of social circles they associated with?
The mechanisms for cutting off your water or power are automated by the utilities that provide them so why couldn't you have a system that could handle a good portion of automating dunning letters, filing notices, etc? Not that you would cut off the tenants water or power, just that when you don't pay, they fire off a letter, and then the system waits X days, and then it fires off another letter, and then you might get an automated phone call saying that they'll cut off your power or water. When it gets to the point where they do cut off your water or power, that might be the only time a human being is involved. Same with tenants. The only time you have to get involved is when you file the legal paperwork (and even much of that can be automated).
I understand that it's a people business but if AI has taken over the world and can write applications and have taken all of our jobs, AI has also made it possible for institutions, funds, etc to buy up 80% of all rental properties and they don't have time to give the personal touch so this type of renting becomes the norm.
Even in the investing process you're looking at Zillow today and assuming that Zillow will be similarly capable in 20 years. If AI can write software, believe me, AI can price real estate by that point. The MLS will simply be like the stock market where people buy and trade RE for micro-margins because the second it hits the MLS 10,000 bots have seen the deal, evaluated it, and decided whether or not to add it to their portfolio, flip the deal like a wholesaler, or pass on it.
Like I said, you can't make the argument that tons of jobs like software engineering are easily replaced but what RE investors do is so special that no computer can ever crush your margins so badly that it's impossible to make money without access to massive amounts of capital.
They used to say the same thing about trading stocks and commodities. But grudgingly, more and more trading is done by computers rather than traders in a pit.
Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.