2026 Spring Housing Market is the 4th Dud in a Row

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2026 Spring Housing Market is the 4th Dud in a Row

https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/06/housing-markets-crucial-spring-selling-season-is-in-tatters/
Michael Carbonare
Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2013 · 926 posts · 614 votes

2026 Spring housing market is the 4th dud in a row.
Mortgage purchase applications came in 34% below the same week in 2019.
Pending home sales are still 30% below March 2019 levels, hovering near record lows.
Inflation is re-accelerating. The Fed is now talking rate HIKES as the next move .

The story heading into 2026 was that falling rates would finally unlock demand. That didn't happen. Inflation didn't cooperate.
The Fed forced mortgage rates below 3%, triggering the worst inflation in 40 years. Home prices exploded 2020–2022. Now we're living with the consequences.

Buyers can't afford the prices. Sellers won't move. Four years and no resolution in sight. 
Who blinks first ? Buyers, sellers, or the Fed?

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  • Morgan Weiss
    Member since 2026 · 72 posts · 30 votes
    5mo

    It looks like we are stuck in a classic standoff where the "higher for longer" reality has finally broken the spring cycle. Sellers are still anchored to 2021 valuations, but with purchase apps down 34% from 2019 levels and the Fed leaning hawkish again, the math for buyers simply doesn't pencil out.

    History suggests that sellers usually blink first once the "waiting for rates to drop" narrative expires and inventory finally stacks up, but with so many locked into 3% mortgages, we might just be looking at a multi-year horizontal grind rather than a sharp correction.

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