Trump a Genius?
It is a great time honoured tradition for famous people in the to run for and ultimately win public office. Public popularity is leveraged into votes and ultimately into public office. Former professional wrestler, became the Governor of Minnesota, arguably the biggest movie star in the world, became the California Governator and quite possibly the most famous and successful actor turned politician, former
is rumoured to be following this group into public office. The Roast of Donald J Trump on the ended by Donald Trump announcing that he would make his decision in June 2011, if he would be running for the big office in 2012. On face value it seems an ego driven move, by one of the biggest celebrity personalities in today's global media market.
Currently, at last reported, for the Republican nomination, Mr Trump is in second place. As of April 11, 2011, for the Republican nomination for President, Mr Trump, the business mogul and TV star has 21% of the vote. the former governor of Massachusetts, leads with 27%. Rounding out the field are and , with 12% each.
What we all know about Mr Trump is that he is a ceaseless self promoter who prides himself on establishing his personal brand which is of the highest quality and prestige. He is on top of the world, with a net worth in the $2.7 billion range, a brand worth arguably double that, private plans, a hit TV show and a legion of people who twist on his every word. Why would you risk this image to take over a failing US economy, unprecendented debt levels, a devalued US dollar, losing confidence in US ability to pay back debt, the Chinese threat and surging oil prices?
Simple. It is really simple if you think about it. Donald Trump has trained himself to see a deal. He sees opportunity where no-one else does. He sees a chance to really build his brand and image to a level that is unprecedented. If he becomes president and turns back on the US economic engine, he will go down in history as the man who saved the USA. He will become a modern day folk hero. In this, he will achieve immortality.
Donald Trump simply put, doesn't do a deal unless he knows he has won going in. At this point in life, he has too much to risk on a gamble. He must know, going in that he has better than a puncher's chance of changing the fortunes of the USA.
So, great, you think, everyone wants to change the US economy, what is different about The Donald? Donald Trump wants to change the US economy, turn his family into the modern and "save" Americans. How will he ever be able to change the seemingly negative downward spiral? Again, the answer is simple if you think about it. Donald Trump will go where he always has gone, to REAL ESTATE!
According to current statistics, foreclosures will end in early 2013. New home construction levels across the United States are at ridiculously low levels (below sustainability). Over supply in the market is evaporating quickly and overstock will disappear when foreclosures stop.
What does all this mean? The US population (308 million people) grows annually by 0.89% meaning an increase of 2,741,200 people annually. In the US, there are 2.59 persons per household, so each year the USA needs another 1,058,378 houses per year to keep up with demand. In some areas of the United States, homes have not been built since 2008, meaning they are currently in need of new homes to be built, but with depressed housing prices, builders are not building, at least not now.
If the US needs another 1,058,378 houses per year, and construction has been at a virtual stand still since 2008, the US should be short about 4,233,512 houses after the foreclosure wave finishes. Let's assume that builders had overbuilt and provided an extra 25% of needed house stock, that still means that there is an understock of 3,175,134 houses across the United States.
Every two new homes built create one new job (). That means, in the United States, annually there will be another 529,189 jobs created to handle the annual need of new housing stock once the new home building industry gets moving forward. There will need to be another 1.5 million jobs necessary to build the houses that haven't been built.
Where are these jobs? 2 million plus jobs is a huge number.
The obvious ones are tradespeople, realtors, financing people, but also there are jobs in the furniture industry, security companies, gas stations, retail sales, landscaping, automotive industry, mini-storage, etc. That statistic of one job for every two houses might even be a bit low.
The second factor that The Donald will be factoring is the change in US population's demographics. The US society is demographically older than Canada and is primed to enter into the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in the history of the world. It is much more common for Americans to marry in their twenties and have children at younger ages than Canadians, so there will be a twenty plus year window of increase child births, which undoubtably will mean a higher than 0.89% increase annually in the US population.
Donald Trump is well aware of both of these factors which are effecting the US economy in the next 2 to 3 years and for the four years beyond that. He knows, unlike in 2008, just before the economic meltdown, it is the time to enter the Presidential election. Don't be surprised, in June, on the finale of the (when wins) that Donald Trump announces to the United States public that he is running for President in 2012 and that is "FIRED"!
is rumoured to be following this group into public office. The Roast of Donald J Trump on the ended by Donald Trump announcing that he would make his decision in June 2011, if he would be running for the big office in 2012. On face value it seems an ego driven move, by one of the biggest celebrity personalities in today's global media market.
Currently, at last reported, for the Republican nomination, Mr Trump is in second place. As of April 11, 2011, for the Republican nomination for President, Mr Trump, the business mogul and TV star has 21% of the vote. the former governor of Massachusetts, leads with 27%. Rounding out the field are and , with 12% each.
What we all know about Mr Trump is that he is a ceaseless self promoter who prides himself on establishing his personal brand which is of the highest quality and prestige. He is on top of the world, with a net worth in the $2.7 billion range, a brand worth arguably double that, private plans, a hit TV show and a legion of people who twist on his every word. Why would you risk this image to take over a failing US economy, unprecendented debt levels, a devalued US dollar, losing confidence in US ability to pay back debt, the Chinese threat and surging oil prices?
Simple. It is really simple if you think about it. Donald Trump has trained himself to see a deal. He sees opportunity where no-one else does. He sees a chance to really build his brand and image to a level that is unprecedented. If he becomes president and turns back on the US economic engine, he will go down in history as the man who saved the USA. He will become a modern day folk hero. In this, he will achieve immortality.
Donald Trump simply put, doesn't do a deal unless he knows he has won going in. At this point in life, he has too much to risk on a gamble. He must know, going in that he has better than a puncher's chance of changing the fortunes of the USA.
So, great, you think, everyone wants to change the US economy, what is different about The Donald? Donald Trump wants to change the US economy, turn his family into the modern and "save" Americans. How will he ever be able to change the seemingly negative downward spiral? Again, the answer is simple if you think about it. Donald Trump will go where he always has gone, to REAL ESTATE!
According to current statistics, foreclosures will end in early 2013. New home construction levels across the United States are at ridiculously low levels (below sustainability). Over supply in the market is evaporating quickly and overstock will disappear when foreclosures stop.
What does all this mean? The US population (308 million people) grows annually by 0.89% meaning an increase of 2,741,200 people annually. In the US, there are 2.59 persons per household, so each year the USA needs another 1,058,378 houses per year to keep up with demand. In some areas of the United States, homes have not been built since 2008, meaning they are currently in need of new homes to be built, but with depressed housing prices, builders are not building, at least not now.
If the US needs another 1,058,378 houses per year, and construction has been at a virtual stand still since 2008, the US should be short about 4,233,512 houses after the foreclosure wave finishes. Let's assume that builders had overbuilt and provided an extra 25% of needed house stock, that still means that there is an understock of 3,175,134 houses across the United States.
Every two new homes built create one new job (). That means, in the United States, annually there will be another 529,189 jobs created to handle the annual need of new housing stock once the new home building industry gets moving forward. There will need to be another 1.5 million jobs necessary to build the houses that haven't been built.
Where are these jobs? 2 million plus jobs is a huge number.
The obvious ones are tradespeople, realtors, financing people, but also there are jobs in the furniture industry, security companies, gas stations, retail sales, landscaping, automotive industry, mini-storage, etc. That statistic of one job for every two houses might even be a bit low.
The second factor that The Donald will be factoring is the change in US population's demographics. The US society is demographically older than Canada and is primed to enter into the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in the history of the world. It is much more common for Americans to marry in their twenties and have children at younger ages than Canadians, so there will be a twenty plus year window of increase child births, which undoubtably will mean a higher than 0.89% increase annually in the US population.
Donald Trump is well aware of both of these factors which are effecting the US economy in the next 2 to 3 years and for the four years beyond that. He knows, unlike in 2008, just before the economic meltdown, it is the time to enter the Presidential election. Don't be surprised, in June, on the finale of the (when wins) that Donald Trump announces to the United States public that he is running for President in 2012 and that is "FIRED"!
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