How to determine current market appreciation.

Question

Hey everyone, my name is Dillon and I am 23 years old looking to buy my first property in the next few months. My plan is to house hack and I am looking to buy a 2-4 unit property. I realize appreciation among many other things plays a big part in how you analyze deals and make an informed decision about a property. To do that, how does one calculate current market appreciation in your local market? Are there websites or ways one can determine something like that? Similarly, how do you determine if a property you are considering won't appreciate?

As a new investor, I am looking forward to learning and growing along side you all.

Caleb Brown · Answer

I see you are in KC too. Since I am an agent I use the MLS and look at the past 1-3 years and see the %. In general the market here is seeing 3-4% YOY appreciation.

Divin Kanyama · Answer

Welcome to the journey, @Dillon Carlson . One thing I'd suggest is not putting too much weight on appreciation when analyzing a deal.

Nobody can predict appreciation with certainty. Instead, focus on fundamentals like job growth, population growth, rental demand, and local development. Sites like Zillow and Redfin can help you see historical price trends, but they're just one piece of the puzzle.

The best advice I received was to buy a property that works based on today's numbers. If the deal cash flows and helps you achieve your goals without relying on future appreciation, any appreciation you get is a bonus.

House hacking a 2-4 unit at 23 is a great way to get started. Focus on cash flow and location first, and let appreciation take care of itself over time.

Crystal Smith · Answer

I'm a realtor and investor and we use "infosparks" to capture local market appreciation data. If you establish a relationship with a realtor for your property search ask the realtor if they have access to Infosparks. It's not available to the general public.

How do we determine if a property won't appreciate?- Great question. We believe that all properties appreciate- it's just a matter of how much over what period of time.. When we consider appreciation we evaluate the past 3 to 5 years of growth via Infosparks. We also review current permit activity & track local public initiatives. If the appreciation from the past 3 to 5 years is flat and the permit activity is low and no public initiatives then we would determine that a property by itself won't appreciate much.

With that said since you are a new investor looking forward to learning- If we purchase a property at a deep deep discount and our analysis shows that through renovation we can increase the value of the property (i.e. force appreciation) we may still pull the trigger on a purchase. This is how gentrification happens by investors buying at a discount, renovating and forcing appreciation.

Igor Ganapolsky · Answer

Dillon, Gregory's advice about not banking on appreciation is spot on. But since you're asking how to actually measure it, here's what I do in Broward County where I buy at tax deed auctions.

The county property appraiser website is your best free resource. In Florida every county has one — BCPA for Broward — and you can pull assessed values, sale history, and owner info for any parcel. Compare the assessed values from 2022 to 2024 to 2026 for comparable properties in the neighborhood you're looking at. That gives you the trend, even if it lags by a year or two.

But here's the thing that taught me more than any website: watching what actually sells vs. what sits. At our tax deed auctions, the properties that get multiple bidders are priced for today's interest rates and cap rates. The ones that go unsold are still priced like it's 2022. That gap between what sellers want and what buyers will actually pay — that's your real-time appreciation indicator, and right now in a lot of markets it's pointing sideways or down.

For Kansas City specifically, pull the Jackson County assessor data and look at the median price per square foot for multifamily over the last 12 months. If it's flat or declining while inventory is rising, you're in a market where cash flow is your return engine, not appreciation. And honestly, for a 23 year old house hacking a 2-4 unit, that's exactly the market you want to be in — you're buying at a reasonable price with actual income from day one, not gambling on prices going up.

Gregory Acs · Answer

Appreciation is definitely worth considering, but I'd be careful about relying on it when analyzing a deal. I like to assume little to no appreciation and make sure the property still makes sense based on today's cash flow, expenses, and financing. If appreciation happens, that's a bonus rather than something the investment depends on.

To understand a market, I'd look at recent comparable sales, local inventory trends, employment growth, and population changes rather than trying to predict future appreciation. If you'd like to walk through how to analyze a potential house hack or compare financing options for a 2-4 unit property, I'd be happy to help.

Morgan Weiss · Answer

You're asking the right question but it could be slightly adjusted. A Kansas City appreciation rate will not tell you whether the specific duplex you are looking at will appreciate. The reason is size — Jackson County is huge, and values move a lot from block to block.

I work with housing data, so I pulled every tract in Jackson County, 2014 vs 2024, percent change per tract. You can run the same pull free on data.census.gov — table B25077, all Jackson County tracts, 2014 and 2024. Takes an afternoon.

What came back: 216 tracts matched both years. Median was +79.0% for the decade. But the slow tracts (10th percentile) did +46.2% and the fast ones (90th) did +136.1%. Nearly 3x between slow and fast blocks in one county. That's why a single metro number can't answer your question — it averages across all of that.

Then I crossed it against rent — B25064, annual rent divided by value. County median 7.12% gross, ranging 4.43% to 13.66%. In the $100k–$300k band, which is probably where you're looking: 136 of 216 tracts, median 7.30% gross.

On what won't appreciate — the thing I watch is income (B19013) and population (B01003) moving under the value line. If values are climbing while income is flat or falling, the price moved without the buyer base behind it. A metro average can't show you that.

Two caveats: these are ACS 5-year estimates, small samples, mostly single-family — treat any one tract as rough. And rent-to-price is a screening number, before taxes, insurance, repairs, management, and vacancy.

On the local side — which blocks in KC — the agents and locals here know more than me. I'd just run the tract pull before trusting anyone's metro average.

Aaron Breckenridge · Answer

Probably best to speak to an agent that knows that market. Appreciation has tapered off over the last few years and months in many markets, so you’ll really want up to date info.

We do track general statistics for a lot of markets at https://www.biggerpockets.com/markets but it’s very broad strokes and it’s only as good as public data out there.

How to determine current market appreciation.

How to determine current market appreciation.

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