The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, but the vote was 10-2. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both wanted another quarter-point hike, and the statement upgraded the economy to "strong" from "solid."

The 10-year reacted the way you'd expect and went to 5.05% Wednesday, its highest close since October 21. Then Thursday's numbers came out: Q3 GDP at a 3.4% annual rate, September PCE at 3.6% year over year, core at 3.1%. Core matched forecasts exactly, and that's all the bond market needed. The 10-year closed Thursday at 4.98%, and Freddie Mac's 30-year average fell to 7.24% from 7.32%, the second weekly drop in a row.

What that's worth on an exit: a $330,000 house with 20% down is a $264,000 loan. At 7.24% that's about $1,799 a month in principal and interest. Two weeks ago at 7.40% it was about $1,828. Hold the payment at $1,828 and today's buyer can carry about $268,200, so roughly $4,200 more budget.

It's real, but it's small. A year ago the 30-year was 6.17%, and the same $264,000 cost about $1,612. Today's rate stretches that payment to only about $236,500 of loan.

I wouldn't put the $4,200 into an offer. Two members already voted to hike, the market was pricing roughly an 84% chance of a December increase before the decision, and the October jobs report lands next Friday. If it runs hot, I think this two-week rally is over. I'm sizing exits at today's rate and still running every deal at ARV times 70 to 75%, less repairs and closing costs.

The other number I'm watching: pending home sales fell 7.3% nationally in September and 12.0% year over year in the South. Fewer contracts means more sellers holding listings into the winter.

I put the full write-up on my website, which you can find through my profile.

For those of you with a flip listed right now: have these two weeks of lower rates brought buyers back to your showings, or is traffic still flat?