Houston: 1,516 of 9,939 homes for sale cover the full payment at 25% down

Houston: 1,516 of 9,939 homes for sale cover the full payment at 25% down

David LurveyPro Member
Real Estate Agent · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2026 · 16 posts · 5 votes

In Houston, the homes that cover their payment are spread across the whole city rather than bunched into a few ZIPs.

Each week I run every 1–4 unit home for sale in the city of Houston through one test: would a 12-month lease cover principal, interest, taxes, insurance and HOA? That's DSCR 1.0, the test a DSCR lender uses.

Today (Nov 4), out of 9,939 homes I could price (11,903 listed):
- 20% down: 925 pass
- 25% down: 1,516
- 30% down: 2,291

Going from 20% to 30% down more than doubles the count.

Where: 102 ZIPs have at least one, and the top five hold less than a fifth of them:
- 77033: 79 of 156
- 77021: 67 of 174
- 77028: 44 of 109
- 77084: 44 of 296
- 77489: 43 of 63
At the other end, 77057 has 1 of 273 and 77008 has 1 of 240.

What: 1,232 single-family homes, most priced $165k to $230k. 119 townhomes around $165k, 106 duplexes to fourplexes around $226k, 59 condos around $130k.

Not counted: vacancy, repairs, capex and management. This is the lender's test, not cash flow.

Assumptions: 30-year loan at 7.25% (7.625% for 2–4 units). Taxes at 2.1% of price, Harris County's typical rate on full market value, since a rental gets no homestead cap. MUD districts run higher, so homes in them look better here than they are. Insurance from Harris County defaults, more in flood zones. HOA as listed. Rents are two independent estimates for a 12-month lease. Site-built resale only.

If you own rentals in 77033 or 77021: what are 3-bed leases getting right now?

Disclosure: I run NetsPositive, the screener these counts come from. See Profile for more.

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  • Diana KhanPro Member
    Attorney · 10451 Mill Run Cir #755 Owings Mills, MD 21117 · Member since 2024 · 716 posts · 259 votes
    21h
    Quote from @David Lurvey:

    In Houston, the homes that cover their payment are spread across the whole city rather than bunched into a few ZIPs.

    Each week I run every 1–4 unit home for sale in the city of Houston through one test: would a 12-month lease cover principal, interest, taxes, insurance and HOA? That's DSCR 1.0, the test a DSCR lender uses.

    Today (Nov 4), out of 9,939 homes I could price (11,903 listed):
    - 20% down: 925 pass
    - 25% down: 1,516
    - 30% down: 2,291

    Going from 20% to 30% down more than doubles the count.

    Where: 102 ZIPs have at least one, and the top five hold less than a fifth of them:
    - 77033: 79 of 156
    - 77021: 67 of 174
    - 77028: 44 of 109
    - 77084: 44 of 296
    - 77489: 43 of 63
    At the other end, 77057 has 1 of 273 and 77008 has 1 of 240.

    What: 1,232 single-family homes, most priced $165k to $230k. 119 townhomes around $165k, 106 duplexes to fourplexes around $226k, 59 condos around $130k.

    Not counted: vacancy, repairs, capex and management. This is the lender's test, not cash flow.

    Assumptions: 30-year loan at 7.25% (7.625% for 2–4 units). Taxes at 2.1% of price, Harris County's typical rate on full market value, since a rental gets no homestead cap. MUD districts run higher, so homes in them look better here than they are. Insurance from Harris County defaults, more in flood zones. HOA as listed. Rents are two independent estimates for a 12-month lease. Site-built resale only.

    If you own rentals in 77033 or 77021: what are 3-bed leases getting right now?

    Disclosure: I run NetsPositive, the screener these counts come from. See Profile for more.

    @David Lurvey, I don't have firsthand rental figures for 77033 or 77021, but I like that you've separated covering the monthly payment from actually making a profit. I'd also want to compare those rent estimates with recently signed leases and check whether any existing leases or property conditions could affect the expected income.

    I'm a real estate attorney, broker, and investor based in Maryland, and I work with clients on rental properties, contracts, and real estate transactions. I've seen how important it is to understand the actual rental terms and property details before making an investment decision. A property can look good on paper, but the details can change the picture.

    Thanks for sharing the breakdown, @David Lurvey! It's interesting to see how much the results change depending on the down payment. Happy to stay connected!

    • David LurveyPro Member
      OP
      Real Estate Agent · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2026 · 16 posts · 5 votes
      21h

      Thanks, @Diana Khan . Agreed on signed leases: that's the check I trust most, and why I asked for 3-bed numbers in 77033 and 77021. If anyone has a recent one, I'll compare it to the estimates here.

      On the down payment point, it gets starker at a stricter bar. At DSCR 1.25 with 20% down, which is what most investors I talk to want, it's 45 of the 9,939 homes in Houston, against 925 at 1.0.

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