A lot of flip analysis stops at buy price vs. sale price. My team maintains a dataset of recorded sales across the NC Triangle, so we checked how that view holds up once rehab is counted.

Step 1: Score the house against its ZIP

Divide the asking $/sqft by the median sold $/sqft in that ZIP.

For example, the median in 27701 is $265/sqft. 80% of that is $212/sqft, or about $275K on a 1,296 sq ft house.

Here’s how past purchases resold, grouped by how far under the ZIP median they were bought. These numbers are before rehab, carry, and selling costs:

• Under 60%: about 72% median gain, 4.3% lost money (94 resales)

• 60–80%: about 33% median gain, 5.5% lost money (289 resales)

• 80–100%: about 5.4% median gain, 11.8% lost money

Purchases under 80% and at or below $290K had about a 61% median gain, and 2.4% lost money (208 resales). The same tier order held going forward in all 12 markets we track.

Step 2: Subtract the rehab

Here are 938 repeat sales by price band, after estimated rehab and carry:

• Cheapest fifth (median buy $145K): +29.35% net, 54.3% cleared zero, 174-day hold

• Entry-level ($225K): +7.53% net, 61.7% cleared zero, 168 days

• Middle ($310K): −9.36% net, 31.3% cleared zero, 153 days

• Upper-middle ($434.5K): −13.17% net, 23.9% cleared zero, 196 days

• Top tenth ($633.5K): −17.2% net, 11.7% cleared zero, 251 days

Overall, the typical resale netted −6.14%, and only 38.5% cleared zero. The two lists group deals differently, so you can’t subtract one from the other. Still, a low gross loss rate says little about what you keep.

How I’d use this

• Treat the ratio as a screen, not a verdict. Deeper discounts resold better, but under 30% of the ZIP median is usually a wrong size, a lot, or a partial interest.

• Choose the house, not the ZIP. Ranking ZIPs by past gross spread didn’t hold up in later sales (rank agreement 0.38).

• Underwrite to the low end of ARV. Across 137 flips, actual ARV landed between 20% below and 43% above the modeled figure four times out of five.

• Walk the property. Below about $158/sqft here, condition sets the price, and public data can’t see condition.

Limits: Rehab is estimated per deal, not taken from receipts. Selling costs aren’t called out in the net figures, so budget for them yourself.

If you flip in the Triangle, how close is this to your actual net, especially above $300K?