Jay nailed the wealth-building math on principal paydown and tax benefits.

On paper that works, but the $75k in upgrades changes the math significantly.

Rebalancing.Now look at multifamily.Freddie Mac serious multifamily delinquencies are at 0.48%, the highest level in over 21 years.Fannie Mae serious multifamily delinquencies are at 0.75%, the highest since 2021.Both have doubled in the last two years.From 2014 to 2019, multifamily 90+ day delinquency rates averaged between 0.01% and 0.10%.For comparison, the 2008 peak was roughly 0.80%.We’re not in crisis territory.But pressure is clearly building — especially in leveraged assets facing higher refinancing costs.Now bring it local.Greater Louisville market.February 15–21:Listings2025: 3202026: 391Sold2025: 1832026: 171Year-to-date:Listings2025: 2,5272026: 2,947Sales2025: 1,5042026: 1,421More supply.Fewer closings.And now rising search behavior from sellers who can’t move inventory.This is how leverage shifts.In 2021, sellers dictated terms.In 2026, math dictates terms.Add in one more structural shift.There are now more 6%+ mortgages outstanding than sub-3% mortgages.The share of 6%+ loans has climbed above 21% — the highest since 2015 — and now exceeds the share of ultra-low-rate mortgages (sub 3% interest).That changes mobility over time.When a larger share of owners are already at 6%+, the psychological barrier to selling weakens.

And if your using correct math, it's more then $100k because your doing an inflation adjustment. 

Pricing is math, not feelings.

Or are they focusing on investing in single family homes due the difficult math I mentioned previously?

That's not a timeline problem — that's a math problem.

But the point is  it’s harder today to see into the future than in the past because the math has gone more 3-dimensional in the past year.Regardless, appreciation happens on the much larger number (the purchase price).  

(NONE of the people mentioned above were involved.)  

Most underwriting mistakes aren’t math errors, they’re optimism errors.The patterns are boring but deadly: trusting pro forma over T12 reality, underestimating expense normalization, ignoring tax/insurance drift, and assuming value-add speed.A simple filter I use: don’t ask “Does this work?”