Well, that is your personal forecast and prediction. 

I predict that over the next 5 years, it will become part of 90% of conversations about real estate speculation in the SW. 

The bad news is that it is difficult to predict which will be 'successful' and which won't make it to their 2nd anniversary in the business.Here is the best advice that I can give you: get up, get dressed, go to work.In other words, treat it like a REAL JOB.  

So I guess, if I'm trying to decide about how much money to throw at the place (i.e. a 3 year breakeven or a 5 year breakeven)...I pretty much have to just do enough to get the job "done" (i.e. get the result that will get the rent and appreciation that I want...which is admittedly hard to exactly predict without a lot of experience)?

No one can predict prices softening.

I don't think that it is ever going to "pop" as some people say, but it is a good buy and hold area because of the stability of the main employers, which you will be able to predict.  

He predicts that sometime soon it will sink, or correct, the same way that stock market did in October-December of last year.

However, if we could really predict the future with Excel, we'd all be ridiculously wealthy.

I see a strategy of hoarding cash to increase speed of purchases now and refinancing (like a big blanket loan) in a few years to provide a more predictibly paydown period (after growth phase is complete).Is the extra cash worth the rate risk?

Any number of things could happen completely beyond my control to predict and I could be out thousands of dollars in just a few short minutes.I got out of that train wreck.