Commercial real estate exceeded expectations in 2025-Office fundamentals showed their first meaningful improvement since 2020, led by continued strength in Class-A assets.Data centers remained on an exponential growth path, expanding well beyond traditional hubs and increasingly supported by alternative energy solutions.Investment activity rebounded sharply, with CRE transaction volume up 17% year-over-year, driven by improved lending conditions and strong private capital engagement.While concerns around bank CRE loan distress dominated headlines, actual write-downs proved far more limited than predicted—though office exposure remains an area to watch.Walking into 2026, the message from 2025 is clear:commercial real estate didn’t just survive — it reset and started growing again.

Unless you’re in a prime area near hospitals or OSU with clear STR demand, long-term buy-and-hold is usually the safer, more predictable play.

Quote from @Jules Aton: I know nothing about this endeavor but wonder if things like this are ever as predictable as we might imagine.

Regan, trying to predict insurance pricing is the same as trying to predict interest rates. 

Specifically:- Estimating cash flow- Evaluating long-term appreciation potential- Understanding neighborhood demographics- Estimating renovation costsI’m working on a tool where:- You paste a Zillow link.The system uses AI to:- Analyze cash flow potential via Rentometer rents- Predict appreciation based on historical trends- Break down local demographic dataGoal: Automate the time-consuming parts of deal analysis and help investors screen properties faster. 

Sharing some context on a deal we’re currently underwriting in the Des Moines / Ames, IA market, and open to connecting with others who have experience or interest in LP buyout / refinance-driven structures.Deal overview:Market: Ames / Greater Des Moines, IAAsset type: Small multifamily portfolio in a student housing submarket near ISUUnits: 29Occupancy: 100% in-place2024 NOI: ~$239K (actuals)Status: Off-market, active underwriting, pre-LOIStructure under evaluation:Conventional bank financing with conservative leverageEquity structured as a clean LP position (no promote-heavy JV)Targeted preferred return in the high single digitsIn-place cash flow from day oneRefinance window of 12–36 months with the intent to simplify ownership post-refiThe focus here is on predictable yield and downside protection, rather than long-term equity participation or operational involvement.If anyone here has executed similar LP buyout / refi structures in the Midwest, or has perspective on how they’re being structured in today’s market, happy to compare notes via DM.Best,EduardoSharing some context on a deal we’re currently underwriting in the Des Moines / Ames, IA market, and open to connecting with others who have experience or interest in LP buyout / refinance-driven structures.Deal overview:Market: Ames / Greater Des Moines, IAAsset type: Small multifamily portfolio in a student housing submarket near ISUUnits: 29Occupancy: 100% in-place2024 NOI: ~$239K (actuals)Status: Off-market, active underwriting, pre-LOIStructure under evaluation:Conventional bank financing with conservative leverageEquity structured as a clean LP position (no promote-heavy JV)Targeted preferred return in the high single digitsIn-place cash flow from day oneRefinance window of 12–36 months with the intent to simplify ownership post-refiThe focus here is on predictable yield and downside protection, rather than long-term equity participation or operational involvement.If anyone here has executed similar LP buyout / refi structures in the Midwest, or has perspective on how they’re being structured in today’s market, happy to compare notes via DM.Best,Eduardo Cambil

Rent control trades higher upside for stability you’re buying predictable cash flow, not rapid rent growth.

Building long-term rentals with predictability and family in mind is a strong foundation, especially when you stay disciplined out of state.

Also don’t sleep on Central Florida for a winter spot that rents well and is a lot more predictable.

I’m seeing more situations where predictability and DSCR matter more than aggressive appreciation assumptions, especially in tighter credit environments.Interested in how others are underwriting these today.In the unique times when the market prices are at obvious depths (2008 - 2012), 1988-1990), etc.