Reventure YouTube Predictions

[Joe Watson]

I watch the Reventure channel I love Real Estate Data. Sometimes I find myself heartily disagreeing with what his presentation of the data means. Recently He has predicted that 2027-30 will be a new housing market reset like 2009-12. I just don't see it. I was working as a handyman in 2009 and at that time it made sense to me that housing was falling in price because each person I personally knew to lose a home to forclosure was really over extended. 

In 2009 there were 4 million (nation wide)active listings, NINJA loans were everywhere, 5 yr ARM was the easiest loan to get.

NONE of those things is currently happenening in this market. AI might be a bubble but it is not a housing bubble.

2008 Tucson Az had 26,592 listings, Today we have 2,418

Check me if I am wrong but, we need serious lending deregulations and a year or two of subprime borrowing to collapse this market(price), or could a serious shock to the stock market cause a flood of home sales rapidly accelerating metropolitan areas (NO). Real Estate has been slower than in the pandemic but, not dead. I believe that we are in a stagflating real estate cycle currently.

Looking at the Housing sales data, 2025 in my market was an absolutely flat year, sales price growth 4% (Median) but, Sales declined in total number -4%. That indicates to me that many peoples wages are not keeping pace with inflation. This is not an immediate indicator of a housing crash to come, it is much more indicative of a K shaped economy where the white collar/managerial class/ boomers are holding the market as steady as possible and first time home buyers whose wages have been flat for 4-5years are not purchasing and are instead being squeezed by higher rents. 

How do you see this being resolved?

I hope that this issue is resolved by bringing more high paying technical jobs into the United States, Re-Programming our educational institutions to only provide degrees that make a wage in the working world. Lower student loan debts by regulating the education of Americans? This is not solved by deregulating lending and allowing the working class to take riskier loans or longer term loans, there has to be a balance between the working class wage and the rent/Mortgage payments we expect them to make. As a builder I think about the land cost and the materials cost and labor cost, and how these factors can be incorporated into one property for a family or individual to afford. There are still deals to be done and won, there is no affordability crisis, there is a "Lots of americans work menial jobs and do not seek to be retrained for a higher paid (more responsibility) position crisis.

[Jay Hinrichs]

he is a click bait artist.. some of his info is pretty accurate but a lot of it is not real estate is highly regionalized and local