HSV market has seen some cool down in the past 6-12 months one due to macro events (interest rates etc) and secondly due to the city banning STR/AirBnBs which resulted in huge increase in rental supply resulting in much longer vacancies.Also agree with @Michael S. that new builds will not cash flow but most likely that is the case almost in every other market...I have seen builder getting little anxious to get rid of their inventory and you might get some deals in there but you will have to hold it long term.I feel in the long term HSV will be a solid investment.

 $100 rent increase is $1200.  

I calculate that I could refinance/increase equity and improve my cash flow by $430/month.  

To increase deal flow outside of the MLS you can network.

I cannot subsequently purchase a property in DC and write-off or capitalize my Raleigh, NC exploration costs.

If tenant does not agree to rent increase then you can provide notice to vacate.  

This is simplest and fastest way to increase incoming cash by $2k/month

Or can you terminate the lease for not paying the increase.

The lease is up in Feb 2026 and I’m considering converting the garage and moving to renting individual rooms to increase cash flow.. any thoughts on moving to this model?

Nov 1 post a notice that as they have not replied to your lease renewal and subsequent attempts to contact you about the renewal, the lease is not being renewed.