My first deal -- is this the one?

My first deal -- is this the one?

Real Estate Investor · Aurora, CO · Member since 2008 · 10 posts · 0 votes

Hi everyone! My husband and I are newbies and have had a couple seemingly good deals pass us by in the last few weeks because we haven't been willing to pull the trigger. I could really use some help analyzing this one, because if it looks good we're ready to jump. Here are the particulars:

Bank-owned SFH
1,605 finished sf on main level plus 980 finished sf basement
4 bed (1 non-conforming); 3 bath
Built 1983
Oversized 2 car attached garage
Needs cosmetics (clean carpet; interior paint; new light fixtures)
All kitchen appliances are included
No HOA
Just re-listed yesterday (guessing the financing failed)
Total listing time approx 100 days
Easy, non-highway commute to 3 major employment centers
Easy commute to airport
Asking price $99,900
Cyberhomes estimate $154,625
Rent comps average $1,100
Only 1 sold comp in last 3 mos.: 1 block east, same finished sf and year built, sold 9/17/08 for $132,000

Pending inspection and any new info re: repairs (roof, furnace, etc.), we're thinking of an initial offer of $72,500 with 20% down. We're assuming $1,000 in potential repairs. It would be a cash deal (i.e., full $72,500 payable in cash at closing). All funds would come from loans from our 401(k) accounts (6% fixed for 58 months).

We'd like to rent it for $1,000 a month, and would use a property management company (the one I'm leaning toward charges $350 one-time set-up that covers unlimited advertising; 10% of collected rent monthly; plus $12 a month to handle evictions). Taxes are $1,636 annually.

Any insight/guidance/words of wisdom would be much appreciated!

Marjorie

Edited to add: One of the things that appeals to us is that, due to the financing via 401(k) loans, we'd own the property free and clear in 5 years...so it would be 100% cash flow after that. Thoughts?

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  • Loveland, CO · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 123 votes
    17y

    I'd let this "seemingly" good deal pass too!

    Even if you get it at your initial price (doubtful), and put another $10K into it, you're at $82K. Way too high to justify try to make it on a $1K/month rent. BTW, why would you rent it for $100/month less than "market"?

    In my experience banks tend to sell their product for "market" price. You need to be buying for less than market, therefor you need to look outside the traditional market.

    You also need to relook at your repair estimates. How could you possibly spend $10K on carpet cleaning, paint and some light fixtures? Most people underestimate repairs, but it seems as though you're overestimating them to offset this. You need to have a good, reliable estimate.

    Although I am suprised to see prices that low per square foot, $40, in Centenniel. I didn't know parts of metro Denver were that low.

    Run away from this one.

    Frank

  • Real Estate Investor · Aurora, CO · Member since 2008 · 10 posts · 0 votes
    17y

    Frank --

    Thanks for the reply! Yikes! The $10,000 was a typo...I meant $1,000. I'll edit my post.

    As for the rent, there's wide variability in that particular area...from $900 to $1,300. My husband felt that by renting at $1,000, we'd reduce the potential for vacancies.

    The property is in Aurora (not Centennial).

    Do my responses have a material effect on your analysis?

    Thanks again!

  • Real Estate Investor · Myrtle creek , OR · Member since 2008 · 343 posts · 13 votes
    17y

    Marjorie, this is the way I see this deal. Say you can buy it for 72,500, with 20% down you would be financing 58K at 6% for 58 months, payment $1,154 mo. Rent 1,000 mo. Even without figuring in any expenses ( which you will have plenty with a 25 year old house ) after management fees your only bringing in $888.00 mo. Thats $266.00 negative cash flow. After 58 mo., after your loan is paid off you will have spent 36,428 of you own money. ( 20K down+ 1K rehab + 15,428 for negative cash flow ). Why would you want to spend 36,428 of your own money, to own a property free and clear that may be worth less than the original purchase price after 5 years? Jim

  • Real Estate Investor · Aurora, CO · Member since 2008 · 10 posts · 0 votes
    17y

    Hi Jim --

    Thanks for the response. I'm trying really hard to understand all of this as a newbie, so please be patient :-)

    Let me throw some "what if's" out there...

    What if we used the 401k loan only for the down and repairs, and secured conventional non-owner-occ. financing or used a HELOC on our current home? (We have impeccable credit, at least $140,000 of equity, and a loan balance under $60,000.)

    What if we were aiming instead to repair/upgrade and retail it (3 comps in immediate area over last 6 months have sold for an average of $130,000)?

    Can you recommend any other exit strategy where the numbers could work?

    Thanks!

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    17y

    I'll take a slightly different perspective. If you could buy this at $72,500, I think it would be a decent deal. You should certainly be able to get $1100 if not more in rent, given the size of this property and the square footage. Not the best time of year right now to try to rent it, though.

    I don't think I'd use that approach to buy it. Use more conventional financing. Really, its not a great deal, so even with conventional financing, its just at break even. With this financing, you're going to be in the hole each month.

    I see potential for appreciation in this area. There are lots of new jobs nearby, and a good pool of tenants. Lots of redevelopment.

    I would be extremely surprised if the bank takes your offer. If this is considered a good deal by other investors, there will already be multiple offers. If not, the bank will reject your offer, or counter at $98K or some such. You'll have to watch it until the price drops, then snap it up quick.

  • Real Estate Investor · Myrtle creek , OR · Member since 2008 · 343 posts · 13 votes
    17y

    Marjorie, If you read my earlier post I apologize. I've edited it. I miscalculated the payment using thirty year fixed financing.Not making excuses, just to tired. Jon and Tom are both correct.thank you for correcting me Tom. Jim

  • Real Estate Investor · OH · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 86 votes
    17y

    John is correct.

    74000 for 30 yrs @ 7.5% you monthly payment is $504.00

    Rents $1000

    Expenses $500

    Cash flow neg $4.00 bucks per month.

    If you can get an extra $150 bucks a month in rent and you have A LOT of equity, it might be worth a shot.

  • Real Estate Investor · Myrtle creek , OR · Member since 2008 · 343 posts · 13 votes
    17y

    Marjorie, did you make an offer? Was it accepted? Jim

  • Real Estate Investor · Aurora, CO · Member since 2008 · 10 posts · 0 votes
    17y

    Thanks for your input, everyone. We finally got in to see the property, and it needs a LOT of work...I wouldn't be surprised if we're talking $20,000 before all is said and done. We're rethinking it, obviously ;-)

    Does anyone have any thoughts in regard to attempting to rehab and retail it?

  • Owen DashnerPro Member
    Lender · Omaha, NE · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    17y
    Originally posted by Marjorie Wallwey:
    Thanks for your input, everyone. We finally got in to see the property, and it needs a LOT of work...I wouldn't be surprised if we're talking $20,000 before all is said and done. We're rethinking it, obviously ;-)

    Does anyone have any thoughts in regard to attempting to rehab and retail it?


    Hi Marjorie,

    If you are considering rehabbing the property and you are estimating $20,000 in repairs alone, then your offer needs to be a lot lower than $72K. You have to factor in all of the "quiet costs" as well. Realtor commission, closing costs (acquisition & selling), utilities, dumpster rental, taxes, insurance, and interest payments are some of the things that will eat away at your profit.

    Get some really good retail comps (not Zillow or any online estimate) by physically walking through similar properties in the area, and have your realtor pull recent sales. Look at how long the comps sat on the market and price per square foot, and factor that into your calcuations. You will want to price your completed rehab property slightly less than the current comps to ensure that it sells quickly. After you arrive at your eventual sale price, subtract your rehab costs, carrying & quiet costs, and desired profit. The number left over should be your maximum offer.

    With all that being said, if the property needs extensive repairs, I would probably not recommend starting out with it as your first investment. On my first rehab REO property, I made the classic mistake of underestimating costs, and trying to make a good deal out of something that simply wasn't.

    Also, If you are looking primarily at REO's, you definitely don't want to fall in love with any particular property or you will get frustrated and disappointed. Keep several going at once and make some lowball offers with an inspection contingency. REO deals typically take a LONG time to come together, so just do your due diligence and try not to get too excited when evaluating any one property.

    Just my $.02...

    Good luck!

  • CA · Member since 2008 · 277 posts · 11 votes
    17y

    Marjorie wrote: One of the things that appeals to us is that, due to the financing via 401(k) loans, we'd own the property free and clear in 5 years...so it would be 100% cash flow after that. Thoughts?

    You're willing to take the money out of your 401(k), pay the early withdrawal penalty thereon, to pay cash for the property?

  • Real Estate Investor · OH · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 86 votes
    17y

    Caitlyn,

    I think she is planning on taking a loan, therefore repaying herself with interest. This is how I got my start too for a DP on my first HUD.

  • CA · Member since 2008 · 277 posts · 11 votes
    17y

    Ahh, I see now. She did say "loans."

  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    17y

    Actually, using 401k funds via the borrowing provisions, is a seldom used but wonderful strategy so long as the funds are used to purchase cash producing assets. Wouldn't you want to guarantee your 401k borrowed funds a set rate of return, no downside in the stock market, thus increasing and benefiting your 401k, and at the same time, having your 401k benefit you (outside of a retirement account) legally with the purchase of an investment!
    Combining your efforts to get a property at a good discount, with conventional financing and 401k borrowed funds, you can get into deals with no money down (none out of pocket anyways).

    As far as if this is a good deal or not depends on your strategy and the area it is in. If your strategy is ONLY cash flow, you probably are not there with this deal. If your startegy is to get a great property at a great discount, rehab it and sell within the next year or two, you could make a nice chunk of money with this deal. You have favorable financing, what appears to be a nice reserve account (home equity line, etc) so you may be on to something here.

  • Member since 2008 · 1 post · 0 votes
    17y

    Newbie,

    Don't worry about missing a deal or two there will be more coming... If you are looking at renting a property you may want to condiser buying a duplex. I am not sure what Denver's market is for duplexes, but I will give you a scenario of what is going on in Minneapolis. My clients and I have been buying duplexes for similar prices to single family homes (same neighborhoods). There were and are so many investors that were foreclosed upon that there are incredible opportunities out there. If you can pay about the same for a duplex as a home your income will be almost double (of a single family home) and your costs are about the same. Two other pieces of advice don't look at just one property and try to do all the planning on it-go out and look at 20 properties. You will get a better Idea of the market conditions and you will find one or two properties that will shine above everything else and you won't have to ask for advice you'll know that its a great deal! If nothing else you will learn about the market. Also make several offers. My most successful client makes 40 offers a month and buys 8 per month. If he doesn't want a property he uses the inspection as his way out.

    Finally, look at using a line of credit on your home instead of your 401k. If you are downsized, or layed off you will have a huge tax bill if you can't pay back the loan!
    Jason Reed

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