Determining ARV: Am I doing it correctly? [Pictures and pdf Comps inside]

Determining ARV: Am I doing it correctly? [Pictures and pdf Comps inside]

Residential Real Estate Agent · Fort Worth , TX · Member since 2012 · 211 posts · 152 votes

I am new to wholesaling, and would like to take this one step at a time educating myself and taking my time long before trying to put my first property under contract. First is making sure I have a solid understanding of determining ARV. To practice I am looking at HUDs at HUD home store, and pulling comps on them just to practice finding ARV. Let me make it clear, these are NOT properties I have under contract and I have not actually physically looked at the property, the estimated repair number is just a number off the top of my head. This is again just a practice in determining ARV.

ARV and Estimating repairs are where many wholesalers, making overly aggressive comp pulls for ARV or underestimating repair costs and assigning a huge wholesalers fee. Thus making dud deals with not enough spread in them. The point of this post is to take it one key component at a time and focus on it, in this case ARV.

Criteria for pulling comps
- within +/- 20% sq ft of subject property
- within +/- 10 years for year built
- same or similar number of bed/bath/garage
-Attempt to get comps with same exterior and construction as subject property
-For an actual wholesale deal subject property needs to be $0.70 cents on the dollar minus repairs, or there is not enough spread for the end investor. Thats with an accurate estimate of bot ARV and repairs.

That being said, my hypothetical subject property here is Lotus. First I will show the full list of solds from the study area and show you which ones I selected. Also please view the property overview PDF I put together for this it contains an actual report as I would send to investors. Here is a link to the PDF:
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/59442741/property_overview_lotus.pdf

The above is the Full list of sold comps within subject property study area. From this list I filtered out "as is" or "HUD/REO" sales. In addition, I further filtered by subdivision, keeping comps in the same subdivision as subject property. Since there were enough comps I was able to get all comps from the same subdivision as subject property.

Once I have the sold comps I do a CMA that gives me the median $ / sq ft. I take this value and multiply it by the sq ft of the subject property. For instance if the median $ / sq ft for the sold comps is $62.20 and my subject property is 1,500 sq ft.

$62.20 x 1,500 sq ft = ARV of $93,000

Sorry for a somewhat longwinded post. Thank you for taking the time to view and or reply to my message, I truly appreciate it.

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J ScottPro Member
Moderator
Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
14y

I just posted this thread that might be worthwhile to you:

http://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/311/topics/73160-primer---estimating-arv

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Involved In Real Estate · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2010 · 341 posts · 86 votes
    14y

    Comping is always subjective, but overall it doesn't look too bad. My only question is that you have 93,000 arv here but under the dropbox you have arv of 110,000. Are you tryi g to give the impression it can be sold above market with 20k in repairs? Also, as a wholesaler, you may need to estimate work needed inside a property.

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    14y

    I just posted this thread that might be worthwhile to you:

    http://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/311/topics/73160-primer---estimating-arv

  • Residential Real Estate Agent · Fort Worth , TX · Member since 2012 · 211 posts · 152 votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Andy Chu:
    Comping is always subjective, but overall it doesn't look too bad. My only question is that you have 93,000 arv here but under the dropbox you have arv of 110,000.

    What would you suggest to improve? I am looking to do an excellent job determining a conservative ARV estimate, not just "not too bad".

    Anyways the $93,000 ARV is completely independent of this hypothetical analysis. It was just some random numbers I threw out to show you how I arrived at the $110,000 ARV of the subject property in this example.

    Originally posted by Andy Chu:
    Are you tryi g to give the impression it can be sold above market with 20k in repairs? Also, as a wholesaler, you may need to estimate work needed inside a property.

    Yes, of course if this was an actual property I was thinking about putting under contract I would definitly take a look inside. How else would you determine ERC? But as I said, this subject property is just practice in pulling comps for ARV, the ERC was something I made up off the top of my head. Its irrelevant in this case since I am focusing on making sure I picked a conservative ARV, thats all im concerned about in this exercise.

    EDIT:

    Originally posted by J Scott:
    I just posted this thread that might be worthwhile to you:

    http://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/311/topics/73160-primer---estimating-arv

    Thanks!

  • Residential Real Estate Agent · Chandler, AZ · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 928 votes
    14y
    Criteria for pulling comps
    - within +/- 20% sq ft of subject property
    - within +/- 10 years for year built
    - same or similar number of bed/bath/garage
    -Attempt to get comps with same exterior and construction as subject property
    -For an actual wholesale deal subject property needs to be $0.70 cents on the dollar minus repairs, or there is not enough spread for the end investor. Thats with an accurate estimate of bot ARV and repairs.

    I did not read your whole post as it is too long for my attention span, but I pull comps as follows:

    1 mile radius
    +/- 10% sq.ft.
    Same # of stories
    Same construction

    From there, I will narrow down by (not in any order):
    Pools +/- $12,000
    Lot size +/- $1/sq.ft
    Bed/Bath +/- $5000-$8000
    Garage +/- $4000/garage

    I favor remodeled comps and comps in the neighborhood, but an appraiser will rarely use all comps from one neighborhood.

    These values are for my market and I adjust them after reviewing more recent appraisals.

    One of the best things a new investor can do is pay for the buyer appraisals, because you then get a copy of it. You can see how appraisers are adjusting values.

  • Residential Real Estate Agent · Fort Worth , TX · Member since 2012 · 211 posts · 152 votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Justin S.:
    Criteria for pulling comps
    1 mile radius
    +/- 10% sq.ft.
    Same # of stories
    Same construction

    When you pull by a radius, couldn't that potentially go across major interstate roads or pull from different subdivisions? Pulling from other subdivisions if they are close by from what I have read seems to be acceptable, assuming the subdivisions overall are similar.

    Also, if the post is too long there is a PDF linked in the original post that you can quickly take a look through instead of my wall of text.

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    14y

    Depending on your area you will need to decide which is more appropriate, same neighborhood, similar neighborhoods and within one mile, between 1 to 3 miles, 3 to 5 miles and over. In rural areas it may be common to pull a comp in another town that is 4 miles away. In Kansas City, stay close to the subject neighborhood.

    J. Scott has a pretty good method for ARV.

    And you can svae alot of time and brain damage by getting an appraisal done based on the finished product with estimates of costs.

  • Residential Real Estate Agent · Chandler, AZ · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 928 votes
    14y

    In my area, this is not that big of a deal for the cookie cutter homes I usually deal with but it may be different in your area. That is why I encourage people to get copies of appraisals to see what appraisers are doing.

  • Residential Real Estate Agent · Fort Worth , TX · Member since 2012 · 211 posts · 152 votes
    14y

    edit: removed

  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    14y

    J Scott - In your adjustment for comp 3 in your example listed in your link, you adjusted the larger sq. footage down by $8,000. What formula did you use to arrive at that adjusted number?

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Will Barnard:
    J Scott - In your adjustment for comp 3 in your example listed in your link, you adjusted the larger sq. footage down by $8,000. What formula did you use to arrive at that adjusted number?

    First, when I went back to look at the example you were referring to (I wrote this a while back), I realized I made a mistake:

    In the chart at the bottom of page 8, the "Subject Property" square footage should be "1940" not "1854" (I copied it incorrectly from the chart at the bottom of page 7).

    That said (and I know you know this Will, but for others reading), that is the *art* part of appraising and estimating ARVs -- the exact adjustments are going to be based on the location and what is "typical" in your area. In my area, the typical adjustment for square footage is about $10-12 (and up to $15) per square foot.

    In this case, I was probably looking at the incorrect value in the chart when I did the math, so with a 710 square foot difference in living space between the subject comp and comp #3, a better adjustment probably would have been closer to $7000. But, in general, I use about $10 per square foot around here.

  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    14y

    Thanks for your answer J, I was curious how you did the adjustment and with your explanation, it now makes sense.

    I need to figure out if my method works in all areas or just in the areas I invest. Obviously, your method could only work in your area, using only $10 per sq. ft adjustment in CA would place you way off simply because our price points are so much higher on average.

    Just to let others know, I would not ever use the comp 3 in your example simply because I would not consider it close enough in sq. footage to be one (off by 27% of subject property). However, if there did not exist enough comps, I would use it under those circumstances then adjust accordingly. When comps are off in living sq. footage by greater than 20%, one must realize that RE is no different than anything else you buy at the store in that you get a "quantity discount".
    The average price per sq. ft of 1500 sq. ft properties will be higher in all areas than that compared to average price per sq. ft of 2500 sq. ft properties.

    One of the mistakes I see commonly made is to simply take the sold price, divide by the sq. footage of the comp and get a price per sq., then multiply that number by the size of the subject property. This would under value the subject property when the comp is much larger and over value when the comp is smaller. Therefore, one must have the ability to adjust for the "quantity discount" for lack of a better term.

    Thanks again for sharing Jason!

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Will Barnard:
    Obviously, your method could only work in your area, using only $10 per sq. ft adjustment in CA would place you way off simply because our price points are so much higher on average.

    Every area is going to adjust for different factors differently. After looking at a couple appraisals for houses in my area, it was pretty easy to glean that an appraiser considers square footage to be worth about $10 per sf, extra enclosed garage spaces are worth about $2000, etc.

    If you go to a different area, all the adjustments will be different, but they should be consistent for that particular area. The best course of action is to get your hands on a couple actual appraisals and see what appraisers in your area are using for adjustments for the big items.

  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    14y

    Jason, if u don't mind, I would Luke to speak with you regarding your insight into these price adjustments. Let me know if that is ok or just give me a ring.
    Thanks.
    Will

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    14y

    No problem, Will. I'm out of town for a few days (checking out some new markets with Marty Boardman), but will drop you a note when I get home.

  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    14y

    Sounds good. Good luck in your searches.

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