What strategy works well to come up with the ARV for non listed houses? I know how to get the ARV for listed properties. This time I need to come up with the ARV for non listed vacant properties. I want to deal directly from the sellers.
What strategy works well to come up with the ARV for non listed houses? I know how to get the ARV for listed properties. This time I need to come up with the ARV for non listed vacant properties. I want to deal directly from the sellers.
The same thing you would do with listed properties.
So you mean MLS and real estate agents work well to get the ARV on homes that are not listed anywhere? Those are the only two ways I heard of that works well to get an accurate after repair value. I was hoping I would not have to involve agents or having to go through the various processes of getting information the MLS.
You generally want to get active, sold and under contract comp info on any property. Whether you use the MLS or not to do this for listed properties, you would do it the same way for unlisted properties.
Whether a property is listed or not isn't really relevant to how you would comp it, apart from the fact that the listing price is helpful as a "check" on whether or not you've done your valuation correctly. That isn't to say, however, that the listing price IS the value; if you think it is listed high and has been on the market for quite some time, or you think it is low and just went on the market, the listing price can help confirm your valuation (as opposed to being a substitute for it).
Jake, notso random question: how long does it take you to run a comp on a house? Say, 3/2, built 1965, 1500 sq ft, wood siding. Basically, just a normal old house to flip.
Assuming I have MLS access for the subject property:
To get an idea of ballpark value (within 5%) to determine whether or not the property warrants further consideration: About 90 seconds.
To be very confident of my value (within 2%): About 7-8 minutes.
Bear in mind, I only know two counties and only very specific pockets of those two counties.
@Antonio: Sorry for hijacking this thread, but it seemed a good place for this discussion
@Jake: Thanks for that Jake. That question was leading up to this...
As an "investor-friendly realtor", would you run comps for a newbie investor without POF, if you "know" they'll list with you when ready for resale?
I ask because the realty company in town everybody tells me to use, won't run any comps for me without a POF. They know I'm looking for properties on and off the MLS, and I've told them several times I'll list with them for resale, solely based on their reputation in town, and my COI (Circle of Influence). It's frustrating me, because I'm still working on Private Lending, but I'd like to be able to get some solid comps and start running numbers on some properties, to present to my potential lender. He needs to see some REAL WORLD deals ripe for the picking, and I'll have him. Or so I tell myself.
Thanks for any thoughts. Again, sorry to hijack this thread if I am...
Lack of POF and/or track record = tough sell when promising a listing for a property you don't have the means to buy.
Why not offer to pay one of these brokers to run valuation reports for you? $$ talks.
Pay for an inquiry?
Zillow, Realtytrac and some of the other websites pull from public record just like MLS. MLS does not deliver a "value" it is a listing service and database query from public records and agent entries.
You will need to have a little knowledge to create a qualified comp set. Frankly, there are plenty of agents that are terrible at this and they will be happy to take your money and deliver a crappy report.
Try and compare comps within a small radius to the subject property staying as close as you can. (less than 1 mile)
Do not jump out of sub-divisions. (A house in a 200k neighborhood should not be compared to a house in a 900k neighborhood down the street)
Look for properties with similar features such as size, year built, what sort of features such as pool and features such as waterview, etc.
Break your sets down to price per square foot.
Websites such as Zillow and Realtytrac are Automated Value Models (AVM) which means they collect this data and calculated it without any human adjustments. When an appraiser appraises the house they will collect the same information (as that is all there is)and make manual adjustments to each unit in the comp set.
The only thing MLS has that you may not have access to is current listings, but with the high use of Realtytrac and Zillow now-a-days by real estate agents you will still be able to pull enough current listings. Zillow and Realty track pay many MLS services for their IDX records, but they are not linked in to all MLS boards across the country.
I would do it for free and as you get serious you can pay for a report when needed. If you trying to become a serious investor, work on developing the tools you need for yourself which is figuring out how to evaluate real property and not be so dependent on a real estate agent for all your answers who may not know more about the topic at hand than you.
One other concept. Which I may be reading too far into your question. "ARV" After Repair Value is not a value that exceeds the going market value. ARV and market value are the same thing. ARV is meant to illustrate that repairs are needed. It does not mean there is some higher number that can be achieved by doing repairs.
If you buy a home with an ARV of 100k, its market value after you complete the repairs is 100k. If the price you pay for that home is 90k and you put 20k of repairs in, it does not mean the home will be worth 110k. It means you have a real nice 100k home and "overbuilt" (aka lost money).
A home with the 100k ARV should have a "As Is" value (value right now before repairs) that allows you to put the repairs in and make some money, say around 50k, so when you put 20k in your cost basis in the property is 70k which you can then sell for the ARV/Market Value of 100k and make a couple bucks.
Again, I may have read too far into your question and understanding of the concepts.
I can't believe brokers are charging for comps. In my opinion the business would come back 250x from word of mouth. Don't pay for comps. Find an agent who will work with you for business.
Back to Shane's hijack for a minute:
You aren't getting the time of day because you aren't valuable to anyone. You're a guy who doesn't know how to evaluate properties (which is why you are asking agents for help) and can't buy one if you do find a good one (which is why you think you have a private money lender but you actually don't). If you paid me to do your valuations for you, you'd have to pay me $200/hr because you wouldn't ever buy anything I evaluated for you. Make sense?
@Brent: I'd love to pay them for comps. I've read on here that's illegal in TX.
@Dion, I'm assuming you're answering the OP. For most states, your response is accurate. However, not valid in all states. Texas is a non-disclosure state, so unless you have actual MLS access, you cannot see sold prices. They're not available on any public records. Investway offers a service for $99/month that will show you some, but their search filters are kinda buggy.
@Danny: I've been trying to PM you for 2 days now. I saw you are following me but I can't msg anyone until it's fixed. I agree with your post, and that's what I'm working on :)
@Jake: So, would you do a few comps for the listing? (The theoretical one from no-experience-guy?)
If you want to pay $200/hr: Yes.
If you don't: No.
Shane, as I stated, Zillow has this information available.
Zillow pays for access into MLS boards IDX records as well as county records.
Give me an address, I will be happy to look it for you. One day if you ever see me in person, buy me a beer.
lol Jake you're too fast. I was typing while you answered above. Didn't ask the question after you already answered it. Just saying :)
I understand your thought process completely, as I'm sure it's the same with my local agents. Aside from the POF, is there anything besided paying you $200/hr that would CONVINCE you that I'll be able to buy something, and know what to do with it to turn a profit?
If not, that's cool, but I'm from Danny's school of thought...
If I were an agent, and Joe Schmo came to me and said, "hey can you run a couple comps for me, and if I aquire these houses, I'll list them with you for resale or rent?" And have a simple signed agreement stating so...I'd be inclined to spend a few minutes working out those few comps if they were "bread and butter" simple. Is one $2500 commission going to make or break me, no. But I'm all about helping people, and 30 minutes here and there definitely WON'T break me.
As to "valuating a property", in TX, there's really no way to know for sure without MLS access, which I can't get without an agent. I know what all types of properties "list" and "last list Price" is per square foot in my county, for just about all areas. I just don't know what they're selling for. I'd assume 5-10% under the last list price, but I can't verify that without an agent. See where I'm going?
I'd LOVE to buy you a beer and pick your brain. I've played with Zillow quite a bit. I'm only relating what I've read here and other places, that even Zillow is innaccurate for TX and other non-disclosure states. My understanding in TX is that even paid MLS subscribers like Zillow can only show/use the last list price in their online pricing models. Maybe I misunderstood.
Danny, brokers should work for the business, however, if all you have to sell is your dream, i.e. you have no funding and no track record, then you will probably need to pay for their time.
Hey Brent,
Thanks for posting. I'd LOVE to pay an agent to run comps. Tell me how legally in TX. :)
Antonio,
Follow the above advice and you should be able to come up with comps, listed or not does not affect the process.
When working solo, especially as a newbie having on intimate knowledge of your area of operation (like Jake mentioned) is key in being confident in comps and knowing what is and is not a deal. There are enough resources online that you should be able to confidently find comps on your own. I personally do not like zillow I have yet to see an accurate Zestimate at lease in my area. Look for agencies that have all of their recently sold properties listed online as well as for sale as another resource.
Dion,
I always thought ARV and Market Value were different animals that depending on the condition of the property could end up being the value.
A house with ARV of $100,000 that needs $20,000 in repair would have a Market Value of $80,000 (what it is "worth" on the market "as is") if it didn't need the $20k the ARV and Market Value would be the same. That is why you want to buy below Market Value.