BiggerPockets

Not sure if this decade ends at the end of 2009 or 2010, but I think either of those are optimistic. I know this graph's been posted before, but have another look. Resets don't stop until then end of 2011. Then, we have to wait for those foreclosures to perk through the system to, most likely, turn into REOs. Then, they have to eventually be bought. I drove through my farm area again today for the first time in about three weeks, and REOs that were overpriced in January are still setting now. Only difference is the weeds are higher and they have fewer windows. If we get a little more protection like San Diego's proposed " foreclosure sanctuary" (i.e., " no more loans" ), we'll still be working off the backlog in 2013 or 2014.

Simple. It'll swing back. Not all the way - but quite a bit. Probably back to about 80% of the " old value" .

That was my thought, too.

As far as long-term values, I'd again go back to the Case-Shiller data. Eventually, prices will move to some inflation adjusted value. It may well be that if you take the pre-2000 value trend and extrapolate it into the future, continuing to adjust for inflation, you'll arrive at the new long term trend. When prices eventually match up with that, either by going down in value or by inflation catching up, we'll start seeing appreciation, at the inflation rate.

I think that assumes lending guidelines in the future are similar to what they were like in the 80's and 90's. If they're much tighter, the new trendline will be lower. If they end up being looser (which is what drove this bubble anyway), the new trend line coudl be higher.