Land Valuation questions

Land Valuation questions

Bothell, WA · Member since 2016 · 3 posts · 1 vote

I'm looking for advice on land valuation in the Seattle metro area (Bothell, Lynnwood, Kenmore, Lake Forest Park, Woodinville, Kirkland). I have a desire to build a passive house and I've been looking for land. It seems like desirable land is hard to come by so I've been looking at tear-down houses or manufactured homes that can be removed. I've been reading about Residual Land Value to determine if a piece of property is reasonably priced. The way I understand it is as follows: Determine final value based on comps, subtract 7% for agent fees, subtract cost to build SFR, subtract a percentage to keep as profit.

As an example, let's say I want to build a 2000 sq. ft. house that can sell for 900k.  Subtracting 7% = 837k.  The cost to build a 2000 sq. ft. house (depends on who you ask, but I'll go with $200 per sq. ft.), 400k, leaves 437k.  If I want to make a 20% profit (is this too high?) then subtract 180k (900k*20%).  This leaves a valuation of 257k for the land.

I haven't seen a piece of buildable land on Zillow for that low of a price for a long time. I know the Residual Land Valuation method is based on a lot of assumptions and you can argue every assumption I made in the example. Are deals on the MLS just over priced or am I missing something? What are typical lots going for? Are most good deals off market?

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Michael HaasBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · Redmond, 🌧️ Seattle Investor-Agent | 🤑 Helped 400+ Clients Invest in Real Estate | 🏘️ Owns 23 WA Rentals & Airbnbs | 🏗️ Built 5 DADU's | 📈 You Can Do It Too · Member since 2016 · 724 posts · 3k+ votes
4y

@Matthew Harris everyone runs numbers differently, so take this with a grain of salt :). 2 recommendations for you:

1. Not a lot of new builds are selling for just $900k, especially new builds that are environmentally friendly or have some other unique features. What if you target a higher exit price (like $1.2 mil). How does that affect your calcs?

2. Profit may be a little high for where we are in the market - we are conservative and target 15-18% profit after all fees. Often real profit exceeds this because we don't assume any appreciation between purchase and resale, and of course our market can appreciate a lot in 6-8 months :).

Always happy to chat more. Sounds like a cool project!

HouseHack Seattle | Michael Haas & Team572 Reviews
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  • Real Estate Agent · Mukilteo, WA · Member since 2018 · 124 posts · 148 votes
    4y
    Hi Matt!

    I'm a real estate agent in Mukilteo but I live in Lynnwood where we recently built 6 homes and plan on building 5-6 more. Your numbers seem to be fairly accurate. For agent fees I wouldn't subtract more than 6%. Honestly I'd account for 5%. Most new construction buyers agents receive 2.5% max and I'm sure you could find an an agent to list it for 2.5%. (I'd do it for 2.5 lol).

    The best deals will be found off market but every now and then you'll find a deal on the MLS. They get scooped up quick though. Have you considered flipping?

  • Bothell, WA · Member since 2016 · 3 posts · 1 vote
    4y

    Hi Aaron,

    Thanks for the reply.  I have considered flipping but I'm more interested in the idea of a passive house.  Often times, it's easier and cheaper to start from scratch.  There is a retrofit passive house standard but I think I'll have a better chance at meeting the standard with new construction.  Also, my thoughts are to live in the house for two years to avoid capital gains, like a live-in flip but I won't be able to live in the house until it's done.  I hope to build one every two or three years.  So there are good deals out there around 250k in this area?

  • Realtor · Bellevue, WA · Member since 2019 · 882 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    @Matthew Harris, your numbers make sence. You may drop agent fee a little. For development cost, $200 is a good starting point, but it will vary a lot based on a few factors like if you have utilities on the road or not, ...

  • Michael HaasBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Redmond, 🌧️ Seattle Investor-Agent | 🤑 Helped 400+ Clients Invest in Real Estate | 🏘️ Owns 23 WA Rentals & Airbnbs | 🏗️ Built 5 DADU's | 📈 You Can Do It Too · Member since 2016 · 724 posts · 3k+ votes
    4y

    @Matthew Harris everyone runs numbers differently, so take this with a grain of salt :). 2 recommendations for you:

    1. Not a lot of new builds are selling for just $900k, especially new builds that are environmentally friendly or have some other unique features. What if you target a higher exit price (like $1.2 mil). How does that affect your calcs?

    2. Profit may be a little high for where we are in the market - we are conservative and target 15-18% profit after all fees. Often real profit exceeds this because we don't assume any appreciation between purchase and resale, and of course our market can appreciate a lot in 6-8 months :).

    Always happy to chat more. Sounds like a cool project!

    HouseHack Seattle | Michael Haas & Team572 Reviews
  • Bothell, WA · Member since 2016 · 3 posts · 1 vote
    4y

    Thanks for the advice.  I guess I was aiming a little low for exit price and too high for fees and profit to cover for anything I might miss as a beginner.  Most of the lots I come across on Zillow range quite a bit in price and time on market.  Most are obvious why they haven't sold (steep slop, water/environmental issues, power lines) but occasionally I find one that would work with these new assumptions.

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