Huge project underway - how do I price the condo?

Question

Hey Florida Investors,

I’m looking for some strategic advice on pricing a premium asset in the Clearwater / Dunedin border pocket (Zip 33755) as we navigate this shifting Florida buyer's market.

I hold a highly unique, off-market 1-bed, 1-bath second-floor condo inside an exclusive 4-unit building. The property is completely turnkey, sold fully furnished, and was completely curated by a professional interior decorator (high-end quartz countertops, brand-new stainless steel appliances, custom white shaker cabinets, and a stunning, custom-built master walk-in wardrobe system).

It is rent-ready right now, and local metrics comfortably support a target rent of $1,650/month.

My Questions to the Forum:

• Given that Florida is a buyer's market right now, does an all-in price of $190,000 under-market leave enough meat on the bone to spark an immediate cash transaction?
• How much of this upcoming $48 Million development appreciation should I be baking into my current private asking price, or should I leave that future equity surge completely as a free bonus to incentivize a rapid 14-day cash close?

Given that Florida is a buyer's market right now, does an all-in price of $190,000 under-market leave enough meat on the bone to spark an immediate cash transaction?

How much of this upcoming $48 Million development appreciation should I be baking into my current private asking price, or should I leave that future equity surge completely as a free bonus to incentivize a rapid 14-day cash close?

Would love to hear from active Pinellas County landlords or 1031 exchange buyers on how you would position this asset right now. If anyone wants to analyze the financial brief or review the private photo link, drop a comment below or DM me directly.

Thanks!

Marcelina Klimczyk · Answer

yea, I think you're looking for the wrong place and address.

Rick Albert · Answer

What is in that $48M development? A quick search shows that it is retail at the bottom and apartments on top. Everyone is different but for me, I wouldn't buy your condo as a rental. There's a major development happening that is going to be competition with all the great amenities and walkability. Your only advantage will be price.

The second challenge is condos are hurting right now. Special assessments, rising HOA dues, and many under construction for improvements have pushed some first time home buyers out of the market. Yours is a small complex so it could be a different situation.

The only way you are really going to know what price works is by putting it on the market. Put it low, and you will find out if a cash buyer comes through.

Ricky Trinidad · Answer

I develop mixed-use condo projects, including in Florida, though not in Pinellas. So take the market read from the people who are there and take this from the other side of that $48M building.

Rick flagged the development as competition rather than a tailwind. From the build side, here is the mechanism.

Developers rarely discount the sticker. We buy the closing instead. A year of HOA paid, a rate buydown, a design credit, closing costs covered. The sale prints strong at the courthouse and the real trade was several points softer. Your buyer sees the concession package. Your appraiser sees the printed price. So during lease-up and sellout, that project sets a ceiling more than it lifts a floor.

Now the other side of it, because I do not think any of this is a golden rule.

The Tampa and Pinellas pocket moves month to month. I have watched buying activity there go quiet and then come back inside a single quarter. Anyone who tells you what that market will pay in November is guessing.

And on almost every project I have built, brokers told me before construction that my projected sale and rent numbers were too high. I have beaten my own projections more often than I have missed them. My read is that product with no true comp does not get priced by the comp set. New construction does this constantly. A fully furnished, decorator-finished unit in a 4-unit building is closer to that than it is to a resale 1-bed, which means the sold comps may understate you. Worth testing before you assume the low end.

Two things I would still underwrite, optimism aside.

A 4-unit association means you own 25 percent of every decision, one roof, no reserve depth, and three other owners who have to agree. A cash buyer who has been through a Florida assessment prices that in.

And $1,650 a month is $19,800 gross. Subtract HOA, insurance, taxes, vacancy and maintenance. Whatever those four total is the net yield you are actually selling. That number, not the ask, is what a cash buyer is solving for.

Underwrite it conservatively (internally), then let the market tell you it was wrong. In my experience it often does, in the right direction.

Jacob Camhi · Answer

your focus for a quick cash close in a buyer's market needs to be on today's value, not future appreciation from a development. that future project is a great selling point, but usually not included in the immediate asking price.

i'd pull the last 90-120 days of sold 1-bed, 1-bath condos in 33755 from the pinellas county property appraiser's website. look for similar small buildings if possible.

a turnkey, fully furnished condo is a strong selling feature, but it still needs to be priced against what similar properties (furnished or not, adjusted for value) are selling for right now. you want to create immediate value for a cash buyer.

have you checked the public records for recent condo sales in that specific zip code and building type?

Huge project underway - how do I price the condo?

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