Denver's Hot Housing Market - Dazed and Confused - Advice Appreciated

Denver's Hot Housing Market - Dazed and Confused - Advice Appreciated

Professional · Arvada, CO · Member since 2015 · 2 posts · 0 votes

Hi all,

I came across this forum researching a particular real estate investment opportunity that I've been debating, and figured I should try to solicit some input from the Pros, especially since my background is void of any real estate investment knowledge.

I bought a 3,200 SQFT house in April of 2014 for $305K in Arvada, CO (80004 zip-code).  The house was completely re-modeled upon purchase and in a way that made renting out the bottom seamless: 1,600 SQFT up and 1,600 SQFT bottom, BOTH having 3bd/2ba, each having FULL range kitchens, laundry rooms, living/family rooms, dining rooms, completely separate entrances (walk-out basement accessed around side yard), and bifurcated parking spots.  Financing was a little tricky since I had to convince the bank that a single-family was going to occupy the house (not zoned or legally grandfathered in for multi), but it all worked out at the end.  It was perfect to lease out the bottom our first year, which covered a substantial portion of our $1,800/month mortgage, but we recently had to 'boot' the tenants downstairs so that we could take over a couple of the rooms (baby number 1 on the way and I needed to move my office to make room for our little guy - crazy how time flies and space requirements double ;-) ).

The hot Colorado rental market got me thinking.  Is it time to buy another house and rent out our existing one in a duplex style manner.  The property management company that I met up with the other day is convinced that I could squeeze AT LEAST $3K/month from renting ($1,700/month top and $1,300/month bottom).  Our current principal balance on our existing mortgage is $284K on a 30-year, 4.49% fixed-rate and my lender is confident that the house would reappraise (if needed) for at LEAST $410K.

The positive cash flow from renting is apparent, but I am not sure if buying another house is the 'right move' , especially since I am boggled by the extremely overpriced homes on the market due to low inventory and high demand. I don't want to overpay for a new house to raise a family in, especially if we're experiencing a bubble. We did just prequal with our lender the other day without a problem (NO HELOC or no proof of renters needed) and are looking to spend sub $450K on the new house.

Is this a 'smart' real estate investment decision to buy another and rent our current house, or should I wait?  The other option would be to sell and rebuy, but I would probably have to remodel the basement to make the layout make sense for a single family in order to get the most out of the market...and for it to appraise.  Another option would be to rent for another year and then use the cash to re-model to a single-family and just live in it while our family grows.  Love the area, as we have awesome neighbors, and the demographics are only continuing to shift favorable, but we are definitely not emotionally attached to the unit.

Wish I had the real estate background to make this easier, but that's why I am here now - to learn as much as I can from others in order to make a wise decision down the right direction.  I appreciate any and all advice!

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  • Rental Property Investor · San Jose, CA · Member since 2013 · 486 posts · 170 votes
    11y

    @Jeffrey Sherman

     First of all congrats on the kid. I suggest you name the second Jordan, it's a great unisex name.

    The property management's company's interests conflict with yours. They want you out, so they can collect their 10% of gross rents. I would do your own market survey via zillow, trulia, rentometer, and you can also put up your own ads to see if anyone would nibble at those prices.

    Hot markets scare me. If you sell your house, and then buy another one of comparable value and build at these inflated prices, I don't really see any net benefit for your family because now you might have a higher mortgage payment at an inflated price. 

    Also, don't think in terms of prices, think in terms of CAP rates when you buy your next investment property. And if you buy a new house, determine how much you could earn if you rented it out.

    I would probably sit tight.

  • Professional · Arvada, CO · Member since 2015 · 2 posts · 0 votes
    11y

    @Jordan T.

    Thanks for the response, Jordan.  Regarding the name, I agree it's a good one and we'll keep it in mind...if we have another kid ;-).  Great suggestion on the market survey.  I'll most definitely take a look at that. 

    Would you mind expanding on the CAP rate analysis? Also, are CAP rates useful for a fix and flip (appreciation strategy) or rental (cash flow / build equity strategy) analysis? How does my current house fit into the analysis?

    Also, do you think our existing unit that I got in at $305K, which would now appraise for $400K+ would be a good rental scenario? What type of combined (top and bottom) monthly rental income would you want to see before renting it? Maybe the CAP rate analysis on our existing home will answer this question, if this type of analysis is typically used to determine viability for a cash flow / equity strategy, instead of an appreciation one.

    I think I may continue looking for a house if the rental numbers make sense, as I could slowly build equity, and we do need a bit more SQFT that makes sense from a single-family standpoint.  However, instead of paying for an overpriced house, I think i should  take the time to look for a house that needs a lot of work, and put the time and money into fixing it up myself. Thanks for the advice so far!

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