Why is the "appreciation perpetuity" being ignored when valuing properties?

Why is the "appreciation perpetuity" being ignored when valuing properties?

Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 13 posts · 14 votes

An investor who invests in a property with an 8 cap return for a hypothetical amount of $1,000,000 will earn $80,000/year in cash flow. I

The 8% return provides the investor a strong return which is about equal to the 8.4% return for stocks between 1990 and 2008. However, the overlooked aspect of the investor's return is the appreciation of the property.  The property's value will likely increase at at least 5%/year over the long term. If the investor holds indefinitely, the property owner is basically receiving a perpetuity in the amount of $50,000/year. At a conservative 10% discount rate, this appreciation factor itself has a NPV of $500,000. That means the value of this investment is $1,500,000 whereas it's only being valued at $1,000,000 based on the cap rate (the cap rate seems to provide a sufficient return on its own that justifies the $1,000,000 investment value.)   Why would someone ever sell a property and give up the appreciation perpetuity that comes from "buying and holding" indefinitely?

The above analysis is an un-leveraged scenario which also doesn't even take into account tax benefits.

Am I missing something? This seems too good to be true and I can't understand why anyone would ever sell? Why isn't the appreciation factor taken into account when valuing real estate?

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Joe VilleneuvePro Member
Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
11y

Answers in the form of questions:

1 - Have we experienced a time(s) recently when the assumed equity built up from appreciation wasn't there?

2 - What good is appreciation unless you can use it?

3 - How do you access the equity built by appreciation?

4a - How many pizzas deliveries have you paid for with the equity build up through appreciation?

4b - Have you ever been able to figure out (I haven't) which part of the house is equity (appreciated or paid off) so you can maybe use a brick or two to buy the pizza?

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  • Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2014 · 137 posts · 96 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
     

    I think it makes more sense to shift to cash flow markets at that point in the cycle and wait out the California market.  Or shift out of real estate altogether and focus on other asset classes if the opportunity is there.  You can always reallocate those funds to California when the timing is right.

    Here's where I got the crazy idea you were talking about liquidating CA properties  to invest in the midwest.  Then you further tried to downplay the transactional costs of doing so by paying all cash.  Where did you get that cash if not by selling CA.  

    OK, I can see how my statement could be taken that way.  My wife and I still generate funds to invest through savings at our W2 jobs.  It's old fashioned I know.

  • Rental Property Investor · Phoenix/Lima, Arizona/OH · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    Totally agree. Caveat being that it's never a bad time to buy an under-performing asset and force appreciation...

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Ben Leybovich:

    Totally agree. Caveat being that it's never a bad time to buy an under-performing asset and force appreciation...

     You mean like this?

    http://news.theregistrysf.com/shorenstein-recapita...

    Let's see, $110,000,000 2011 purchase.  $200,000,000 lipstick rehab.  Now at $900 a sf that makes this a BILLION dolar property.  In San Francisco!  Yep, can't make any money in CAlifornia.

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