Unemployment Analysis & Charts - SF Bay Area & US - Any better?

Unemployment Analysis & Charts - SF Bay Area & US - Any better?

J. MartinPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Oakland, CA · Member since 2011 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes

It might not feel like a jobs boom to many, but damn! Does it get much better than this!?
Check out the historical unemployment charts for the United States, California, San Francisco, and the greater Bay Area.. Some interesting stuff! Wonder what the Fed is going to do next time.. Just a reminder of where you are buying in the economic cycle :) (If you don't care about CA or the SF Bay, skip to the bottom for US)

I'm not a chartist, but I was surprised how regularly unemployment in CA reverts relatively quickly after getting down to almost exactly 5.0% in the last few decades.. 5.7% as of Nov 2015. If CA unemployment continues it's current pace of dropping about 10-20bp per month, it would be back at 5% by Summer 2016. Again, who knows.. But interesting.. And look how fast unemployment goes up, relative to how slow it goes down!

*Keep in the back of your mind while reading all this that the Fed has ALWAYS lowered rates at least 300bp (3%) in every past recession to cushion the fallout.*

For San Francisco... wow! Bouncing from 3.2% to 3.4% with what looks like some seasonal fluctuations.. Past the 2006 boom, and approaching tech bubble levels. Good times! The winds are at our back folks, and historically, they don't blow much more, before they start blowing in our face! How much lower does it typically get, how long does it stay that way, and what tends to happen afterward? What is that grey area..? Hmmm..

That's just SF J! What about the rest of the Bay? Well.. things are booming!
Here's the SF / Oakland / Fremont MSA Unemployment rate. At 3.9% now, it has bounced around the 2006 boom levels. A year ago in Nov 2014, it was 4.9%, a full percentage point higher. It has only gone below 2.9% briefly leading up to the tech bubble. We'll see if it gets back there, and what happens afterward..!

Silicon Valley - The San Jose / Sunnyvale / Santa Clara MSA. Doing great also at 4.0%! However, this is the first one that looks like it is starting to lose it's steam, interestingly enough. Historically, it has gone lower in prior booms, and has sputtered in the past, before steaming ahead to the end, then entering a recession. So maybe it still has some room to go. It was at 4.9% a year ago, almost a percentage point higher. It's only breached 3% in the tech bubble. (This is a seasonally adjusted smoothed chart, like the CA chart, so I'll get the regular one later..)

But J! That's just the Bay Area!
The rest of the country is just recovering from the last crisis still! OK OK.. Here's nationwide unemployment. Not quite as "on the verge" as SF and the Bay, but hmmm... Down to 5.0% in Nov 2015. In Nov 2014, it was 5.8%. If continuing at that rate, it would be down to 4.2% by the end of 2016 - and only breached that level in the hot '99/2000 market, which is the lowest unemployment watermark for almost all areas. As low as 4-5% in the last 3 recessions.

The Sky is Falling!!!!
This is not any sort of dooms-day calling for RE or the economy. It's a simple statement that just like unemployment, jobs, incomes, and RE, things go up.. and things go down.. cycles. Are we in the early, middle, or late stage of an expansionary cycle? What's the Fed going to do next time when they can't lower rates 300bp or more to help the economy out? (negative rates? buying securities more broadly?) It seems like a lot of long-term investors make more money buying when the charts are the other way around. So go enjoy yourself for a bit, sock away some cash, and I'll see you in a couple/few years! ;)

@Minh

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Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2014 · 137 posts · 96 votes
10y

@Matt R. Well, at the moment unemployment is still declining, so I wouldn't look to sell just yet.  My takeaway is that when unemployment starts ticking up that's a leading indicator for the next recession.  Most people think it's the opposite, that a recession precedes the job losses, but these charts prove otherwise.

The affordability ratio is at extreme levels in some localized markets (especially tech heavy areas), but on a statewide basis it still has room to get worse before the next crash.

There was plenty of affordability during the last crash.  I was living in a Huntington Beach condo during the crash and I knew the market was close to bottoming out because positive cash flow was possible on these units, something I don't think had ever happened in my adult life.  I was telling anybody that would listen that you could cash flow in Huntington Beach but I would get one of two responses:  people would laugh and call me crazy, or they were too consumed by fear to pull the trigger.  I was only able to convince one person that the numbers made sense and he pulled the trigger in late 2011 setting the lowest comp of the cycle for the complex that I lived in.   So not only did he get a great cash flowing deal but the value has doubled in the 4 years since he bought.

I ended up buying my primary residence around the same time, so I didn't have the dry powder to scoop up rentals as well, but I couldn't believe that more people weren't jumping at these opportunities of a lifetime.

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  • Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2014 · 137 posts · 96 votes
    10y

    This is great analysis of the business / economic cycle.  The rapid increase in unemployment lines up perfectly with each recession, which lines up with the boom/bust cycle in California real estate.  Looks to me like once falling unemployment starts flattening out, it's time to bail out! 

    I can't believe more people haven't commented.  Great job @J. Martin!

  • Professional · Cupertino, CA · Member since 2015 · 62 posts · 5 votes
    10y

    Housing market is really hot in Fremont, North San Jose area.  Townhouses listed for $740K with more than 12 offers, 6 of the offers over $800K with no contingency.

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @J. Martin Looks like a good time to sell if you think unemployment is going to rise. But if you are a buy and holder maybe not with locked in low rates and taxes. For sure the affordability ratio left the building already. That begs the question since when were great Cali coastal areas affordable?

  • Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2014 · 137 posts · 96 votes
    10y

    @Matt R. Well, at the moment unemployment is still declining, so I wouldn't look to sell just yet.  My takeaway is that when unemployment starts ticking up that's a leading indicator for the next recession.  Most people think it's the opposite, that a recession precedes the job losses, but these charts prove otherwise.

    The affordability ratio is at extreme levels in some localized markets (especially tech heavy areas), but on a statewide basis it still has room to get worse before the next crash.

    There was plenty of affordability during the last crash.  I was living in a Huntington Beach condo during the crash and I knew the market was close to bottoming out because positive cash flow was possible on these units, something I don't think had ever happened in my adult life.  I was telling anybody that would listen that you could cash flow in Huntington Beach but I would get one of two responses:  people would laugh and call me crazy, or they were too consumed by fear to pull the trigger.  I was only able to convince one person that the numbers made sense and he pulled the trigger in late 2011 setting the lowest comp of the cycle for the complex that I lived in.   So not only did he get a great cash flowing deal but the value has doubled in the 4 years since he bought.

    I ended up buying my primary residence around the same time, so I didn't have the dry powder to scoop up rentals as well, but I couldn't believe that more people weren't jumping at these opportunities of a lifetime.

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Brent Seehusen That's awesome. HB is great. I almost bought a condo there across the street from the beach right on what was the Seal Beach border. I just was not up for the 40 mile commute to Samo. Since you have been around for a bit you recognized a bonafide bargin. Those dudes should have listened to you and emptied thier accounts to buy. It is the old buy when everyone is fearful rule. In OC that rule is golden I imagine and most especially in HB.

  • Real Estate Agent · Fountain Valley, CA · Member since 2015 · 83 posts · 27 votes
    10y

    Thank you for this post!

    It's posts like these that help keep my trigger finger at ease when i feel the urge to try to jump in to buying properties without any savings. 

    Have a good day and I appreciate the info

  • Investor · Tracy, CA · Member since 2014 · 49 posts · 11 votes
    10y

    Great post. I am a little late to the discussion. Just a caveat about looking at historic unemployment rate as an indicator of the overall job market. My understanding is that the U-6 rate is the most comprehensive way to analyse the job market. The unemployment rate is reported by the media and the politicians and gets a lot more importance than it deserves.

    Here is a news article on the various metrics to analyse the job market.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/06/whats-the-real-unem...

    As can be seen in this article, the U-6 rate has not gone down as much as the unemployment rate in the past couple of years.

    The unemployment rate is based on the # of applicants for unemployment benefits. So if someone has not found a job and run out of 52 weeks of unemployment benefits, he/she is mistakenly counted as having found a job. Also, if someone is underemployed due to economic reasons, it shows up in the U-6 rate but is ignored in unemployment rate.

    I am not sure if historical data is available for U-6 rate and how it impacts the analysis.

    p.s. My information on the topic is from libertarian talk radio, and needs to be confirmed or verified by people who know more about the topic.

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