5 questions about finding a flip home... someone please assist.

5 questions about finding a flip home... someone please assist.

Windsor, CT · Member since 2016 · 20 posts · 0 votes

I want to find my first property to flip. since Im new, I want it to be a cheaper property so I minimize the risk and learn in the process.

1. I have been looking at hud homes and comparing the sales histories. Sometimes a see a sale that will drastically increase in price (ie 50k,2005--- 55k, 2007--- 125k, 2009--- 50k, 2011...) and other times there will be a progression (50k, 2007-- 60k, 2009---73k, 2011-- 110k, 2012--- 125k,2013--- 60k, 2014--- 40k, 2015). I don't know how to interpret this. What does this usually mean? Why the drastic changes? Should I be concerned?

2. What do you think about very cheap homes that are typically either in the ghetto (15-20k)? I imagine its not worth it, but just wanted others' thoughts.

3. There are homes that are in safe neighborhoods (green areas on Trulia) yet seem to either have a history of being sold underpriced or have a frequent selling history, often at a loss. How do I interpret this?

4. This will be my first property. I cannot buy in my city cuz its too expensive (NYC, so Im venturing into foreign territory). A lot of stories start off with "well I knew someone...". But since I dont have any experience with home repair and I dont know how to study a foreign market aside from looking through the Trulias and Zillows online, how else can I make sure I dont get something for a loss?  

5. Is there a way to get a HUD home assessed before putting in a bid? HUD used to have as is values but i dont see that anymore.

Thanks a ton for any questions you can help with!

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Developer · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 902 votes
10y

Very cheap homes are more dangerous, IMHO. Let's say your ARV is $120k, you're buying at $40k and putting $40k in and, after all expenses, you're going to make $12k. Now what happens when, after demo starts, you find the house is riddled with termites or there's a foundation issue? Your entire profit could be eaten up with one big issue and then, just to break even, you can't make ANY other mistakes. Mistakes like underestimating the rest of the repairs or overestimating ARV, which are really easy to do when you're newer to rehabbing.

Now let's say you bought a more expensive house to flip. You paid $80k, your rehab budget is $80k and your ARV is $240k. You want to make that same 10% on ARV which is $24k. You've got the same likelihood of finding foundation issues or termites but now you've got a $24k cushion to play with rather than a $12k cushion. Make sense? I'm not saying you can't make money on a $120k ARV house but you'd have to get it nearly for free and even then, rehabbing a $120k house costs around the same per sq/ft as a $240k house. For your first flip you want cookie cutter, vanilla, middle of the road.

As to your other questions about making sense of price trends, that's way over my head! Find a standard house in the area you're looking to flip in, something with lots of solid comps for the same layout house, in an area with plenty of solid comps to rely on, and mirror what the higher comps have done. If they took out the wall between the kitchen and dining room, you do the same. If they've got a deck out back, you need a deck. 

You need to start with the ARV in mind, then the rehab budget, to then land at your MAO. Good luck!

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  • Investor · PA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 602 votes
    10y

    I would avoid the ghetto and anywhere with high taxes and/or very low sales prices. What you want is a 50k house in a nice neighborhood where it's very uncommon for anything to sell below 100k or a 100k house in neighborhood where it's very uncommon for anything to sell below 200k.  Most of the time these will be foreclosures, off market deals or properties that might need some repairs.

  • Developer · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 902 votes
    10y

    Very cheap homes are more dangerous, IMHO. Let's say your ARV is $120k, you're buying at $40k and putting $40k in and, after all expenses, you're going to make $12k. Now what happens when, after demo starts, you find the house is riddled with termites or there's a foundation issue? Your entire profit could be eaten up with one big issue and then, just to break even, you can't make ANY other mistakes. Mistakes like underestimating the rest of the repairs or overestimating ARV, which are really easy to do when you're newer to rehabbing.

    Now let's say you bought a more expensive house to flip. You paid $80k, your rehab budget is $80k and your ARV is $240k. You want to make that same 10% on ARV which is $24k. You've got the same likelihood of finding foundation issues or termites but now you've got a $24k cushion to play with rather than a $12k cushion. Make sense? I'm not saying you can't make money on a $120k ARV house but you'd have to get it nearly for free and even then, rehabbing a $120k house costs around the same per sq/ft as a $240k house. For your first flip you want cookie cutter, vanilla, middle of the road.

    As to your other questions about making sense of price trends, that's way over my head! Find a standard house in the area you're looking to flip in, something with lots of solid comps for the same layout house, in an area with plenty of solid comps to rely on, and mirror what the higher comps have done. If they took out the wall between the kitchen and dining room, you do the same. If they've got a deck out back, you need a deck. 

    You need to start with the ARV in mind, then the rehab budget, to then land at your MAO. Good luck!

  • Windsor, CT · Member since 2016 · 20 posts · 0 votes
    10y

    Thank you both tons for the response.

    Troy, I have 3 quick follow up questions, if you wouldn't mind: 

    1. In the examples you offer, Im unclear as to why my ARV would be so low. For example, if Im purchasing for 80k, rehabbing for another 80k, and the ARV is 240, then, even assuming I sold it under market value, wouldn't it be more than 24k? Ideally it would be 80k ROI, but even half of that would yield more than 24, Same for the example with the 40k purchase, 40k rehab and ARV of 120k which would leave a 40k net in value. Or do you mean 10% using it as a rental prop? I know this is my lack of understanding, so I'm trying to understand better.

    2. Wouldn't termites show up when you have the property assessed before purchase? I have read that termites are one of the worst issues to deal with, so how do I avoid buying such a property? Do I need specific pest control checks beforehand? I would imagine professionals assessing a property would be trained in identifying termites given the impact an infestation has on value. 

    3. When you mention using comps as a guide, and following improvements on similar properties like a map (ie if others took out the kitchen wall on a similar property, I do the same etc), is there an online site or database where I can get such info? I cant afford purchasing in my neighborhood so I wouldn't be privy to casual neighborhood discussions wherever I buy.

    Again, thanks a ton!!

  • Investor · San Bernardino, CA · Member since 2016 · 6 posts · 1 vote
    10y

    1. In the examples you offer, Im unclear as to why my ARV would be so low. For example, if Im purchasing for 80k, rehabbing for another 80k, and the ARV is 240, then, even assuming I sold it under market value, wouldn't it be more than 24k? Ideally it would be 80k ROI.   BAD ANALYSIS, YOU HAVEN'T CONSIDERED 1. CLOSING COSTS FOR THE PURCHASE AND THE RESALE (REALTOR'S COMMISSIONS, TITLE, TRANSFER FEES, ATTORNEY OR ESCROW FEE,S RECORDING FEES, ETC.) 2. CARRYING COST SUCH AS UTILITIES, INSURANCE, ALARMS, ETC. 3. FINANCING COSTS AS POINTS AND INTEREST FOR THE LENGTH OF THE FLIP. PLEASE DO NOT BUY A HOUSE UNTIL YOU HAVE AT LEAST READ THE BOOK FLIP OF GARY KELLER.

    2. Wouldn't termites show up when you have the property assessed before purchase? I have read that termites are one of the worst issues to deal with, so how do I avoid buying such a property? Do I need specific pest control checks beforehand? I would imagine professionals assessing a property would be trained in identifying termites given the impact an infestation has on value. YOU NEED A TERMITE INSPECTION BEFORE BUYING THE HOUSE, AND SHOP AROUND TO FIND AN AFFORDABLE ONE.

    3. When you mention using comps as a guide, and following improvements on similar properties like a map (ie if others took out the kitchen wall on a similar property, I do the same etc), is there an online site or database where I can get such info? I cant afford purchasing in my neighborhood so I wouldn't be privy to casual neighborhood discussions wherever I buy. YOU ALMOST NEVER START ON YOUR OWN NEIGHBORHOOD. I WOULD SUGGEST YOU TO 1. FOCUS ON LEARNING HOW TO CALCULATE THE ARV (AFTER REPAIR VALUE) OF A PROPERTY. 2. LEARN HOW TO FIND CHEAP PROPERTIES. 3. CHASE DOWN A CONTRACTOR OR FLIPPER OR START WORKING FOR ONE SO YOU GET A BETTER IDEA OF COSTS OF REHABS.

    ALL THIS WILL IMPROVE THE ODDS OF MAKING A PROFIT ON YOUR FIRST DEAL.

    I HOPE THIS WAS HELPFUL

  • Developer · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 902 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Steve Edwards:

    Thank you both tons for the response.

    Troy, I have 3 quick follow up questions, if you wouldn't mind: 

    1. In the examples you offer, Im unclear as to why my ARV would be so low. For example, if Im purchasing for 80k, rehabbing for another 80k, and the ARV is 240, then, even assuming I sold it under market value, wouldn't it be more than 24k? Ideally it would be 80k ROI, but even half of that would yield more than 24, Same for the example with the 40k purchase, 40k rehab and ARV of 120k which would leave a 40k net in value. Or do you mean 10% using it as a rental prop? I know this is my lack of understanding, so I'm trying to understand better.

    Sounds like you have a few terms confused. ARV is After Repaired Value or what the house should be worth (what a buyer would pay) when you're all done fixing it up. Sounds like you're confusing profit with ARV? Profit is the $12k or $24k I came up with in my earlier examples. Don't forget you get to pay taxes on that at the end of the year too :)

    In Philadelphia we pay (traditionally, it's all negotiable) half the transfer tax when we buy and half when we sell. TT in Philadelphia is 4% of sale price so we pay 2% when we buy and 2% when we sell. 6% to a realtor on the back end, closing costs on the buy and sell side, holding costs (debt service, taxes, utilities, insurance), and we haven't touched the house yet. You lose 10% of sale price (or more) to all this fun stuff and possibly more depending on your cost of money. If you're using the 70% rule, which will get you close (it's not enough on cheap properties and can have you miss out on more expensive properties), that leaves 20%. 10% for profit and 10% for mistakes/changes/delays, of which you'll have plenty. As I was saying earlier, that 10% cushion goes away quickly on a cheapo house. This is how the 70% rule is a great way to get yourself in BIG trouble on a cheap house. You really need to analyze these deals with a spreadsheet or calculator that takes all these costs into account. Rules of thumb like this are great for a quick once over but if you invest solely using this rule there's plenty of ways to get yourself in trouble. 

    2. Wouldn't termites show up when you have the property assessed before purchase? I have read that termites are one of the worst issues to deal with, so how do I avoid buying such a property? Do I need specific pest control checks beforehand? I would imagine professionals assessing a property would be trained in identifying termites given the impact an infestation has on value. 

    In my area there are shed kitchens that are basically additions off the back of the house. Half the time these are built on dirt with no crawl or access underneath. If the inspector can't see it, he can't inspect it, and won't do anything invasive to get to it. So let's say you have some termite damage in the rim joists and floor joists in the shed kitchen. At least, you'll be demoing and replacing the floors, joists, sills, etc. there. Let's say the little buggers got to some framing in the dining room on an exterior wall, adjacent to the shed kitchen, that was covered by drywall. You open up a little drywall and now you're on the hook for repairing the framing, insulating, drywall, trim and paint in an area you hadn't planned on touching. I'm not trying to scare you but I am trying to show you how $h*t goes down hill quickly, especially with a small cushion for error :)

    I lost your last comment but it's in regard to comps and neighbors. Talking to neighbors has NOTHING to do with comps. You'll pull comps from recently sold, COMParable properties. You can use Redfin, Trulia, etc. to look at properties that sold within the last 3 months (ideally, can go longer if need be) near your target property. This will give you an idea of what yours should sell for. You'll look at the pictures of finished houses and read the descriptions to see what they did as far as structural changes, opening up walls, adding on space, what finishes they used, did they finish the basement, etc. 

    How far away to look for comps is another conundrum; in my area you need to stay within a couple blocks, ideally on the same block, and not cross any invisible boundaries like major roadways, parks, train tracks, etc. In your area, if it's very rural, you may have to go miles to find comps. 

    Again, let's look at a cheapo house. You think $120k ARV all day long but with seller concessions you end up at $116k. Not entirely out of the realm of possibility now is it? So your $12k profit is now cut to $8k and that's IF you had no other major oopsies. That same $240k house and you have $8k in concessions and you're not looking so bad with a $16k profit/cushion.

    At the end of the day, this whole thing takes education and experience to even get close to doing it well. Don't let me scare you off, I just want you to be fully prepared to not make as much as you expect. My first flip, all I wanted was to break even. I shot for and projected a $20k profit and made, IIRC, $8k? I got paid $8k to get a serious education. Not bad in my book. Keep reading on BP, asking questions, listening to podcasts and you'll be ready to rock and roll in no time. 

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