hypothetical buying scenario

hypothetical buying scenario

Mountain View, CA · Member since 2016 · 26 posts · 0 votes

This is a hypothetical scenario. Let’s say

  • you have 400,000 you can invest on RE
  • there’s property(A) you want to buy. The price is 500,000, And it is expected to go down to about 450,000 in 4 years.
  • when you make 125,000 (loan is 375,000) downpayment, cash flow will be zero. when you put down 250,000, you can get positive cash flow (2000 monthly)
  • The amount of conventional loan you can get is 37,500 at max.

Here are questions;

  1. Which is better? Down 125,000 (25%) and save the rest for later? Or down 250,000 (50%), enjoy the cash flow (.8% ROI), and refinance it when things are ready to buy another property?
  2. you have 37,500 left. That would be enough to buy another similar property(B). However, because you already have a loan from the property A, you can’t borrow anymore. Is there anyway you can purchase another property without waiting for 2 years to prove the bank the property (A) is self sufficient?
  3. should we still purchase property (A) even when you know it’s completely overpriced and it’s not a good time to buy, because you understand 2 year requirement and you’d like to move on to leverage to purchase another property (B) sooner?
  4. Let’s say you bought property (B) after 2 years, and you have 15,000 left for another down payment for property (C). Do we need to wait for another 2 years?
  5. After 4 years, it got changed to buyers’ market. However you used all of your money to buy properties A, B, C. if you refinance from property A and B, you will be able to get some cash to buy property (D), but property (A) and (B) will generate negative cash flow. it’s certain that appreciation of (D) will be pretty good just in a few years, following the historical pattern of the cycle. Would you risk to put up with negative cash flow for property (D)’s appreciation value? If so, how much would you borrow and risk?
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  • Investor · Fair Lawn, NJ · Member since 2014 · 384 posts · 189 votes
    10y

    I know there are people that invest for appreciation and even do quite well. I stay away from assuming appreciation because I do not know how to model it.

    What I can say is that it makes no sense to me to invest in a property I know that I am not going to get cash flow from and where I'll be under water in 4 years.

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Jin Kim, (I think you left out a zero in some of those loan scenarios).

    First, if you believe property you are considering buying is overpriced, simple: DON'T buy it!

    Even if you think it's fairly priced, your Offers should be for LESS than current intrinsic market value (not the least reason being the exact scenario that you described being a real possibility)! 

    Otherwise, the argument is: you are not an hands-on investor, because any fool can pay retail!

    Secondly, if you have enough to put down 25% deposit on three separate properties, who says you can't find a Lender who will let you buy all three of them at once? A significant proportion of their net income will be taken into account when determining your ability to repay. Which makes it even more important to make sure that they are proper "deals" in the first place. Cheers...

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