Colorado real estate market, no end in site?

Colorado real estate market, no end in site?

Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes

I while back I posted about the possibility of selling some of my rentals and investing in a new market. I am located in Northern Colorado and our prices have doubled in the last four or five years, making it really tough to cash flow. My thoughts were to sell a few properties here and reinvest that money in a new market. 

I have two of my rentals under contract and set to close in the next couple of weeks. 

  • One I bought for $88,000 in 2012, put about $15,000 of repairs into it and it is listed for $199,900 now. 
  • The other I bought for $120,000 in the beginning of 2015, put about $15,000 of repairs into it and it is listed for $179,900. 

Earlier this year I felt that the market in Denver and Colorado may be nearing it's peak. We have plenty of land and once prices get closer to what they can build at, it seems natural that inventory would increase and prices would stabilize. I talked to my local planning and zoning office in Greeley and they actually said there are less building permits being issued in 2016 than there were in 2015. Of those that are being issued, more of them are multifamily that ever before. I am in a town that is 60 miles from Denver and not exactly a urban environment. I personally don't think people want condos or apartments, they want houses. With less houses being built, new construction prices are rising just as fast as existing homes. 

I am starting to think that the single family home market may not be slowing down soon, if they cannot create more inventory. That is the problem, too many people want houses and there aren't enough. The state has talked about creating programs to help first time home buyers, but that will only increase demand. I do not see how that will help the supply/demand problem. The state and local Realtor association was proud of a bill that would create a savings account for home buyers that would accrue interest tax free with Colorado, not the Feds. That plan would save a whopping $30 a year for most people that use it. 

I am curious what others are seeing in Colorado. Are they starting to build more and if so, is it multi or single family? I am a little worried about the number of multifamily projects being built, especially around here. I don't think our market has as much demand for multi as the developers do. 

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Lender · Denver, CO · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 597 votes
10y

The Denver market is wild - inventory is the lowest ever, prices are rising quickly and competitive bidding is guaranteed on just about anything under $400k. 

New construction is happening all over the suburbs and the builders can't deliver houses fast enough. I disagree that the houses are not affordable to local residents because the data says differently in the pace the houses are selling.

Infill new construction of town homes inside Denver's urban core is everywhere with projects typically selling out before completion. Million dollar plus houses are selling at higher volumes than ever. 

There are no market indicators to show this market will slow in the near future. No inventory, higher quality borrowers, low unemployment and rents that won't slow - Not to mention it is Colorado, who doesn't want to live here. I feel like the potential issues will be affordability (not yet because rents and prices continue to grow) or the cost or construction out pacing the values (starting to see that now on the town home products - lack of skilled labor)

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  • Realtor · Denver, CO · Member since 2016 · 499 posts · 129 votes
    10y

    Hi Mark, there are many new builds in the northern denver area. Unfortunately, most of them are on higher end of SFR's. Most start at 400 or higher and most people who live and work here cannot afford those houses. Many people who are moving from California and other places have the money to buy these houses and they are beating out all the locals on the 250-350 home market. It is getting harder and harder for a hard working person to afford home ownership in Colorado.

  • Specialist · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2013 · 260 posts · 245 votes
    10y

    @Mark Ferguson This isn't unique to Colorado. A lot of place are seeing rise in prices. In Orlando, there are a lot of multi-family projects going up and people are saying there are too many. However, I've spoken with developers and the numbers are saying otherwise. Downtown multi-family is 95% occupied and rental rates are continuing to move. This leads to developers adding more projects because the numbers are supporting their investment thesis. It all comes down to the math and investment pro forma. Do the numbers make sense? At some point, it will reverse and some developers will get crushed. It happens in every cycle. Same goes for flippers.

    If the market sentiment is that things aren't going to slow down anytime soon. I would start to be more conservative in my pricing ie. Can you hold the property for double the time instead of the initial period? Do some stress testing to see if your investment is strong enough to hold if things went south. I'm not saying they are but I start to question. As Warren Buffett once said, "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

  • Lender · Denver, CO · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 597 votes
    10y

    The Denver market is wild - inventory is the lowest ever, prices are rising quickly and competitive bidding is guaranteed on just about anything under $400k. 

    New construction is happening all over the suburbs and the builders can't deliver houses fast enough. I disagree that the houses are not affordable to local residents because the data says differently in the pace the houses are selling.

    Infill new construction of town homes inside Denver's urban core is everywhere with projects typically selling out before completion. Million dollar plus houses are selling at higher volumes than ever. 

    There are no market indicators to show this market will slow in the near future. No inventory, higher quality borrowers, low unemployment and rents that won't slow - Not to mention it is Colorado, who doesn't want to live here. I feel like the potential issues will be affordability (not yet because rents and prices continue to grow) or the cost or construction out pacing the values (starting to see that now on the town home products - lack of skilled labor)

  • Lender · Denver, CO · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 597 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Mark Ferguson:

    I have two of my rentals under contract and set to close in the next couple of weeks. 

    • One I bought for $88,000 in 2012, put about $15,000 of repairs into it and it is listed for $199,900 now. 

    I love this ^^ - I am selling a property similar numbers in Denver- bought at $72k, $17k in repairs in 2012, with $6k out of pocket to get it closed. Just went on the market at $220,000 - offers up to $250,000 - FHA appraisal came in at $232,000. Not to Mention the $28k I netted in rent over the 4 years!

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Travis Sperr:
    Originally posted by @Mark Ferguson:

    I have two of my rentals under contract and set to close in the next couple of weeks. 

    • One I bought for $88,000 in 2012, put about $15,000 of repairs into it and it is listed for $199,900 now. 

    I love this ^^ - I am selling a property similar numbers in Denver- bought at $72k, $17k in repairs in 2012, with $6k out of pocket to get it closed. Just went on the market at $220,000 - offers up to $250,000 - FHA appraisal came in at $232,000. Not to Mention the $28k I netted in rent over the 4 years!

     That is a pretty awesome deal!  

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Travis Sperr:

    The Denver market is wild - inventory is the lowest ever, prices are rising quickly and competitive bidding is guaranteed on just about anything under $400k. 

    New construction is happening all over the suburbs and the builders can't deliver houses fast enough. I disagree that the houses are not affordable to local residents because the data says differently in the pace the houses are selling.

    Infill new construction of town homes inside Denver's urban core is everywhere with projects typically selling out before completion. Million dollar plus houses are selling at higher volumes than ever. 

    There are no market indicators to show this market will slow in the near future. No inventory, higher quality borrowers, low unemployment and rents that won't slow - Not to mention it is Colorado, who doesn't want to live here. I feel like the potential issues will be affordability (not yet because rents and prices continue to grow) or the cost or construction out pacing the values (starting to see that now on the town home products - lack of skilled labor)

     Cost of construction is high here due to water, land costs and of course increased government costs. 

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Ian Tudor:

    @Mark Ferguson This isn't unique to Colorado. A lot of place are seeing rise in prices. In Orlando, there are a lot of multi-family projects going up and people are saying there are too many. However, I've spoken with developers and the numbers are saying otherwise. Downtown multi-family is 95% occupied and rental rates are continuing to move. This leads to developers adding more projects because the numbers are supporting their investment thesis. It all comes down to the math and investment pro forma. Do the numbers make sense? At some point, it will reverse and some developers will get crushed. It happens in every cycle. Same goes for flippers.

    If the market sentiment is that things aren't going to slow down anytime soon. I would start to be more conservative in my pricing ie. Can you hold the property for double the time instead of the initial period? Do some stress testing to see if your investment is strong enough to hold if things went south. I'm not saying they are but I start to question. As Warren Buffett once said, "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

    Ian

    Check out my profile!

     I would say that good flippers do not get burned when prices start to drop. In and out quick with plenty of profit is how I flip. I think the flippers who get caught up in a hot market and pay too much may get burned. 

  • Fort Collins, CO · Member since 2016 · 45 posts · 23 votes
    10y

    Fort Collins seems to be leading the way on housing increase. I got completely destroyed on a couple bids I put in that went up to $15k over asking. I'm waiting to see what one of them sold for, but I am sure it went for around $25k over, would be a perfect rental, but the place also needed a lot of rehab from rowdy tenants. 

    On the construction side, seems any open area is being developed and they're on the higher side starting around $400k. Wellington is going build crazy too, and won't be slowing in the near future. One builder is on phase 2 of building an entire subdivision which will go to 2019 from what they had told me. 

  • Wholesaler · Denver, CO · Member since 2016 · 4 posts · 0 votes
    10y
    Travis Sperr I agree wholeheartedly. The lack of available skilled subcontractors is making for a very tough market when it comes to rehabilitating for a buy and hold or a flip. It is a testament to how popular Denver is right now. It is finally becoming the city it was meant to be. Onward!
  • Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2014 · 732 posts · 137 votes
    10y

    Well have friends in real estate in Pueblo West and they tell me investors are going further south to invest, ex: Pueblo West, Colorado Springs.

  • Realtor · Denver, CO · Member since 2016 · 499 posts · 129 votes
    10y

    Hi Steve, I have clients that have land in Pueblo west if your friends might be interested. Colorado springs is feeling a little bump in the market thanks to the Denver craziness. 

  • Realtor · Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    @Mark Ferguson How much of the permit decrease do you think should be attributed to the price of oil for Greeley? It's starting to pick back up from my contacts up there, but it isn't what it once was. 

    I'm seeing softening in the around $600k level here in Denver with one of my current clients. Everything $400k and lower is still highly competitive. Even when rates go up here soon, they aren't going to slow us down. 

  • Somerset, PA · Member since 2015 · 103 posts · 24 votes
    10y
    Matt M. I also am noticing the softening around $600+. Even anything close to $500k seems to be pretty competitive.
  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    That is with oil sub $50 for current and past years? What is Greeley supply and demand going to be like if oil rebounds again? Most areas 60 miles outside LA are going pretty solid too I think. IDK but you could have some Denver spill over?

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Matt M.:

    @Mark Ferguson How much of the permit decrease do you think should be attributed to the price of oil for Greeley? It's starting to pick back up from my contacts up there, but it isn't what it once was. 

    I'm seeing softening in the around $600k level here in Denver with one of my current clients. Everything $400k and lower is still highly competitive. Even when rates go up here soon, they aren't going to slow us down. 

     I have not seen any affect on the market in Greeley from oil prices. A lot of people predicted a market softening and it never happened. Prices have continued to rise and there are still no homes for sale. The economy is diverse enough that unemployment is extremely low and all those oil jobs were easily absorbed. I know many people who could had to hire from out of state to find workers when oil was booming. Now they are finally able to hire local again. 

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Matt R.:

    That is with oil sub $50 for current and past years? What is Greeley supply and demand going to be like if oil rebounds again? Most areas 60 miles outside LA are going pretty solid too I think. IDK but you could have some Denver spill over?

     Correct, the oil prices had no affect on home prices as far as I could tell. 

  • Bill S.Pro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Mark Ferguson and @Travis Sperr I agree that the numbers say there is no end in sight. Really anything below the median is really challenging. I also agree that the cost to develope is the main driver. I have mentioned this before but it is worth mentioning again. I have a friend who finds land for developers. They looked at a project where it would have cost them $100,000 per lot just to get intitlement. That was the cost of water and impact fees for schools, roads, sewer and water infrastructure. It's really tough to build a $400,000 house when you start out that far behind.

    The construction defects law is really holding a lid on opportunities for entry level buyers. Traditionally when things get hot, people build condos. They go up fast and are usually fairly cheap. That's not happening now. If the politicians wanted to help housing prices in Colorado the solution is pretty easy IMO. Change the construction defects law so that insurers will write builders risk insurance for condo construction. That would do way more than the plaitudes of interest savings.

    I am really watching the appartment segment. My gut tells me there is significant overbuilding in the the Class A space. What I can't figure out is what the means for the rest of us. Sure it will trickle down I just can't figure out the impacts. I do know it's a huge red flag when a planner tells me that apartments are so profitable that the developers think they can't overbuild. I'm paraphrasing a bit but that was the jist of what the planner said. This one thing has me cautious about buy and hold. I don't think now is a good time to reach or stretch to make a deal work. Solid deals with equity and cash flow are the only way to do a buy and hold now. 

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Bill S.:

    @Mark Ferguson and @Travis Sperr I agree that the numbers say there is no end in sight. Really anything below the median is really challenging. I also agree that the cost to develope is the main driver. I have mentioned this before but it is worth mentioning again. I have a friend who finds land for developers. They looked at a project where it would have cost them $100,000 per lot just to get intitlement. That was the cost of water and impact fees for schools, roads, sewer and water infrastructure. It's really tough to build a $400,000 house when you start out that far behind.

    The construction defects law is really holding a lid on opportunities for entry level buyers. Traditionally when things get hot, people build condos. They go up fast and are usually fairly cheap. That's not happening now. If the politicians wanted to help housing prices in Colorado the solution is pretty easy IMO. Change the construction defects law so that insurers will write builders risk insurance for condo construction. That would do way more than the plaitudes of interest savings.

    I am really watching the appartment segment. My gut tells me there is significant overbuilding in the the Class A space. What I can't figure out is what the means for the rest of us. Sure it will trickle down I just can't figure out the impacts. I do know it's a huge red flag when a planner tells me that apartments are so profitable that the developers think they can't overbuild. I'm paraphrasing a bit but that was the jist of what the planner said. This one thing has me cautious about buy and hold. I don't think now is a good time to reach or stretch to make a deal work. Solid deals with equity and cash flow are the only way to do a buy and hold now. 

     I read an article somewhere about a major multifamily builder in Denver who is stopping all new projects because they feel there is a crash in multi coming soon. They think single family will not be affected much, if at all. But they see overbuilding in the multi for sure. 

  • Scott TrenchPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    10y

    I choose to play this game in two parts. 

    First, with regards to detached houses (think yards). These aren't being built fast enough. I think it is foolish to expect the market to end soon and fail to enter if you are a local student of the market, and I think it is equally foolish to think that the party will continue forever and stay out entirely. Unless you have information that the rest of us don't, I think that conservatively buying detached property that produces reasonable cash flow is the way to go in this market, and short of some fundamental shift in the ecoonomics and desirability of this city, I can't see most buyers looking back in 10 years wishing that they had bought elsewhere.

    Second, with regards to attached houses (think condos), it's my opinion that current owners are riding a bubble. I think that some folks will get pretty rich pretty quick riding up the prices in the under $400K condo market over the next few months, perhaps the next few years. But at some point in the next 5-6 years, all those "apartments" that have been hitting the market are going to get converted, and I'm betting we see some volatility in that market. I bet that folks buying condos today will wish that they hadn't held them over the next decade.

    Just my opinion.

  • Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2015 · 138 posts · 73 votes
    10y

    @Bill S. - As you mention impact fees for developers, I recently read an article about the city of Denver possibly implementing more fees for development, up to $7 per sq ft to fund affordable housing.  Guess what that's going to do? Developers are just going to jack up the price to make up for it and the buyers are the ones who end up paying...that will do the opposite for the affordability housing plan the city had in mind.  Gotta love them! You can read it here:

    city nears a pay plan

  • Residential Real Estate Broker · Littleton, CO · Member since 2016 · 22 posts · 5 votes
    10y

    Travis is right, and with over 100K people moving to Colorado year over year needing a place to live, they're only going to keep building.  It's ling been predicted that 'Denver' is going to become a lot like L.A. in that it will stretch from Ft Collins to Colorado Springs.  The high density housing is just the starting point for newcomers and for first time home buyers to be able to find something affordable to get their foot in the door of home ownership. As long as we're experiencing this influx of people, values should continue to rise. 

  • Investor · Claremont, CA · Member since 2014 · 150 posts · 36 votes
    10y

    So what do you think @Mark Ferguson still going to sell your rentals?

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Dorothy Ma:

    @Bill S. - As you mention impact fees for developers, I recently read an article about the city of Denver possibly implementing more fees for development, up to $7 per sq ft to fund affordable housing.  Guess what that's going to do? Developers are just going to jack up the price to make up for it and the buyers are the ones who end up paying...that will do the opposite for the affordability housing plan the city had in mind.  Gotta love them! You can read it here:

    city nears a pay plan

     I saw that too and thought the same thing. They are trying to make housing affordable by increasing the fees to build houses!  Brilliant. 

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Joseph Graeve:

    So what do you think @Mark Ferguson still going to sell your rentals?

     I am selling two now that were two of my least desirable ones. I am not selling the others any time soon. I am not buying any new rentals here since I cannot cash flow well. 

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