San Mateo, CA · Member since 2016 · 78 posts · 28 votes
Hi BP,
Yes the news these days is tough to keep up with and comprehend with all the various legislative orders and changes going on - I'm not trying to start any political discussions here, so I ask everyone to weigh in respectfully.
That said, I'm wondering if any BP members and those that invest in real estate in Texas are keeping a close eye on potential impacts this "wall" may have on the local real estate industry there. Specifically San Antonio, is an area I am keen on.
I am/was considering investing, but wondering if this is something you'd take into consideration.
Andy
Lender · Fort Worth, TX · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 6k+ votes
9y
@Andy C. I would not worry about this. I mean, I guess if you predict something bad will happen in the "future" sooner or later you will be right. Texas has doubled it's population in the past 40 years. 90% of all that growth is within 50 miles of I-35. You're profile says you are from California. Since 2008 1510 businesses have left California. Texas took 219 of those business. Apple, eBay, Facebook, and the list goes on and on. About 10,000 people move here each month. A healthy economy suggests a housing inventory that covers demand for 6 months. We have 2.5 months of inventory here. There are bidding wars for homes on the open market. Stay away if you want but nobody else is.
Wholesaler, Rehabber and Landlord · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
9y
Of course all this stuff is going to have an effect on the Texas market. Texas and California together export and import quite a few items with Mexico. It will slow things down for Both states. Real estate is already hovering at the 10 year mark for a downturn. It was inevitable that something would slow things down around here. Interest rates going up, Trump policies, and people just not able to afford higher prices around here.
For the long term buy and hold, I would not really worry too much. There are quite a few positives going on also. Jobs and people continue to move from the Rust Belt, making the Texas cities larger and causing more demand. That has been happening for over 20 years and will continue.
It will temper the growth that we have seen in the last 7 years. But Texas is very solid and will not fall dramatically like some other parts of the country will.
With luck it will further depress the real estate market which will be a major plus for those long term investors looking to buy. There will always be those looking to rent so any factor that benefits long term hold investors is a plus.
The expectation is that most Trump policies will have a negative impact on the economy so the possibility is that you will be facing a wide spread opportunity to buy at depressed prices. Trump policies should be good for investors wanting to get in at a low dollar value. It's too early yet but wait and see.
Lender · Fort Worth, TX · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 6k+ votes
9y
@Andy C. I would not worry about this. I mean, I guess if you predict something bad will happen in the "future" sooner or later you will be right. Texas has doubled it's population in the past 40 years. 90% of all that growth is within 50 miles of I-35. You're profile says you are from California. Since 2008 1510 businesses have left California. Texas took 219 of those business. Apple, eBay, Facebook, and the list goes on and on. About 10,000 people move here each month. A healthy economy suggests a housing inventory that covers demand for 6 months. We have 2.5 months of inventory here. There are bidding wars for homes on the open market. Stay away if you want but nobody else is.
Rental Property Investor · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2011 · 512 posts · 290 votes
9y
I wonder what it will do to the cost of labor for those of us rehabbing houses to sell or keep. Many of the workers in this industry are undocumented. Whether you hire them or not, there could potentially be a gradual decrease of supply of cheap labor thus pushing labor costs higher. I believe this administration intends to be inflationary and this is one potential place we may feel it in our industry. Trying hard to avoid a "political" discussion here. I'm concerned for the future. Whichever party one likes, I think we are in for drastic change and I am reading "experts" with way more economic education than I have, with conflicting views of what may be in store.
@Account Closed Thanks for starting an interesting thread. Good luck with your investing.
Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2016 · 736 posts · 582 votes
9y
Will Pritchett l think the effect will mostly be psychological. Prior administrations changed labor laws to be unfavorable (I know someone that sold their peach orchard because of it). Documented laborers crossing back and forth will have no trouble continuing to do the same. The wall itself will have little impact (the point I was trying to make as far as it being there already - which many folks surprisingly don't realize).
I think other aspects intended on slowing the outflow of cash into Mexico (i.e. Western Union's business) will have a greater impact on economies than a physical wall.
San Mateo, CA · Member since 2016 · 78 posts · 28 votes
9y
Andrew Postell good points. As an ou of state investor it's so important to keep an eye on the local impacts of changes in our economy and policy. As we all know real estate varies state to state, city to city and of course even down to the neighborhood.
You're right Businesses are leaving California or setting up satellite offices in other cities, it doesn't speak to the job creation and growth here that displaces those outflows. Texas no doubt is doing quite well.
San Mateo, CA · Member since 2016 · 78 posts · 28 votes
9y
Thanks Greg S. , Will Pritchett , Ed E.
for all the input. Really appreciate the thoughtfulness in everyone's responses.
Continuing to watch San Antonio as it's an interesting market, given the growth in neighboring cities such as DFW, and Austin.
You guys are all right as the news may or may not have an impact. And the wall, or talk of the wall... may very well have lesser impact than the media portrays it to be. The one constant I've learn, over the years, that does not ever change is population growth. And TX is certainly continuing to see it's fair share of it.