Bakersfield, Fresno or Neither?

Bakersfield, Fresno or Neither?

Member since 2018 · 17 posts · 9 votes

I know its a long way out but when the High Speed Rail is finished it seems inevitable that some people will forgo the expensive LA and SF rents and move to cities like Fresno or Bakersfield (they already are). 

There is also a new highway being built in Bakersfield that connects the whole west side to the 99 which goes straight to LA. 

Good investment? Too far out (10-20 years)?

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Investor · Bakersfield, CA · Member since 2015 · 483 posts · 234 votes
8y

@Trevor Muska if a long term buy and hold strategy is your objective, I would recommend Bakersfield.  Here are a few reasons why:

-Growth

Bakersfield has had a large population growth in the past 20 years, and the city itself has expanded pretty heavily to accommodate all the new growth.  In the coming 20 years, Bakersfield is expected to grow to surpass the size of Fresno (including both cities growth rates).

- Development

Bakersfield is developing and re-developing some of the largest commercial projects.  This will start to affect property values in a positive direction.  A large commercial live, work, play development was just put into movement after 10 years of back and forth.  The properties in those areas are more than likely going to increase in value in the more immediate term.  

- Distance

Bakersfield is within a 4 hour drive of Most of the population of California which puts it in a very unique position to provide goods to a large population with a lower operating cost than other businesses may have.   With proximity to large metros Bakersfield is a perfect location for distribution, which is only becoming larger.  We already have Ross, Target, Caterpillar, and many more distribution centers popping up everywhere.  Also, imagine living in a location that will allow you to visit the mountains and beaches in the same day, all within less than a 3 hour drive.  When the major metros become too unreasonable, it may look like a better option.  

- Resources

Kern county also produces more oil than most other locations around the country.  For better or worse, that is a profitable venture still.  Kern county is also going to be home to the largest solar project in California, and provides a large amount of the nations food.  

- Transportation

Yes, they are building a freeway which will connect the 99 to the 5.  They are also doing many other roadway projects to allow for increased traffic around the city.  This shows that the city is growing at a stable pace.  

And the HSR, even though at a snails pace, we are getting the HSR up and running, projections are, once that does happen it could potentially triple the size of Bakersfield's population.  If you can imagine, living in a place that will buy you a literal mansion of sorts for $500,000 and only being a 45 minute train commute to work.  I don't think prices will last as low as they are that much longer once the project is complete.  

Sorry for rambling on, but it is a topic I love to talk about.  Hope this was of some help to you, and if you would like to chat further feel free to PM me as well. 

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  • Investor · Walnut, CA · Member since 2017 · 72 posts · 37 votes
    6y

    Thanks for the response. It is helpful since you have real world examples. How much is rent in Santa Clarita and those tiny condo space?  

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    6y

    @Drew Leo Family with one 150K income can still live in Silicon Valley, actually, one can still rent a condo for $2K something. If they want to buy, a condo or townhouse in Livermore/Tracy area is still around $300K. I think the rent price is still affordable in Silicon Valley, what is not affordable is SFH. But condo or townhome is still doable, especially if it's not in good school neighborhood. If a family buy-in Fresno and work in SJC with temp house, that's more expensive compared to just plain renting.

  • Investor · Walnut, CA · Member since 2017 · 72 posts · 37 votes
    6y

    Very nice reply. Interesting that the type of housing matters in that area. Under assumption when decades of real estate prices in Silicon Valley are overly inflated, there is a difference when it comes to condos and townhomes. 

  • Specialist · San Jose, CA · Member since 2017 · 6 posts · 4 votes
    6y

    @Trevor Muska if you're holding out on the train you have to consider never as a non-zero possibilty. I believe that currently there are no active plans to bring the train in either of those metros and to start operating only in the Central Valley. Don't get me wrong I'd love to see it happen but feel less and less hopeful about it as time passes.

  • Investor · Walnut, CA · Member since 2017 · 72 posts · 37 votes
    6y

    You could be right.  What I saw with my eyes could be just a small local in improvement.

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