Professional · Anaheim, CA · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 686 votes
7y
I'm vested in #7 Las Vegas. For 2018, Las Vegas was the #1 market in US, with double digit gains of about 11%. For 2019, forecast of 7.9%, which is not bad. Way better than average for nationally of 2-3%. West coast was all the rage in 2018, but not so much in 2019. The above map looks spread out more evenly across the nation.
Rental Property Investor · Phoenix AZ / Kendallville, IN · Member since 2016 · 293 posts · 149 votes
7y
I live in Phoenix and even though it might be "hot", I think housing is still high to get any cash flow for SFH and MFH units. I vest in the midwest whereas the cash flow is much better in my situation.
Now if I had invested after 2008 that would be different ;)
Realtor.com predicted fairly accurate on Las Vegas in 2018.
If Realtor.com predict accurate again in 2019, that is a good news to Las Vegas landlords and owners, that their house price will go up higher. Another 7.9% appreciation in Las Vegas in 2019, sounds good. Can’t wait to see my assets grow another 7.9% more one year later.
Real Estate Agent · Merritt Island, FL · Member since 2017 · 974 posts · 1k+ votes
7y
@Terry Lao - I moved out of South Florida a few months ago, though I still keep tabs. I don't agree with Miami at #2 (might not even be top 20). There are parts that are hot, they're underdeveloped and with lots of money in Miami, investors are buying up quickly. Then there are other areas that aren't as hot. For example, about a month ago I read a piece that showed South Beach with around a 19 month supply. That might qualify as top 10 slow markets. The Lakeland prediction could be accurate, that area is doing well from what I hear.
Developer · Houston, TX · Member since 2017 · 161 posts · 134 votes
7y
@Terry Lao these are the markets to avoid in 2019. Why would you want to go to a market that was just published as being “hot”. Don’t follow the crowd. Follow the data. And maybe your market isn’t hot right now but it’s your home town /nearby market and is simply cycling right now. I say stick with it. This is real estate not stock. We are in it for the long haul.
I was told in las vegas the inventory level has almost doubled from this time last year.
That’s rights, Las Vegas inventory has doubled from 3500 houses to 7000 houses. However, Las Vegas sold average of 3000 houses each month, and a normal 6 months balance market should have 18,000 houses inventory.
Current inventory level of 7000 houses is still far away from the expected normal 6 months inventory level of 18,000.
Professional · Anaheim, CA · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 686 votes
7y
@Account Closed
Your are correct. Even though Las Vegas inventory doubled, to maybe a 2-3 months supply, we are still far short of a 6 months supply, which is considered normal. This is still a seller's market in Las Vegas.
Statistically, Las Vegas over took Seattle at #1 in mid year, June/July 2018. Previous #1 was Seattle for around 20 straight months. So Las Vegas has about a 6 month streak, and that will continue.
Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
7y
@Terry Lao
Good for you and your Vegas investments. Do remember that the Vegas market suffered some of the biggest declines and foreclosure rate during the last downturn. That local market tends to have bigger booms and busts. I'm not calling for a correction there. But it is easier to build new housing there, compared to California and Seattle.
Rental Property Investor · Palmdale, CA · Member since 2016 · 122 posts · 88 votes
7y
@Terry Lao, are you buying in Vegas this year or you’ll wait until it changes to buyer’s market? I don’t think we are going to see reduction in prices anytime soon because their new stadium opens next year.
I'm a numbers person by trade, in accounting and finance. Back in 2008 and the meltdown, where SFR's lost over 50% of value and many REO's. The bottom was Feb'12, and if you timed the market, you've done really well. Also, appreciation is measured year over year and by percentage. If Las Vegas, lost the most percentage wise, then it has the most to gain percentage wise.
Median SFR in Seattle is around 700k. Median SFR Orange County is like $720k. Median SFR Las Vegas is $297k. If you have a good paying job around 100K, and if married, then maybe combined $200k, you have many options. If not, then look for city like Las Vegas.
Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
7y
@Terry Lao I explored Vegas during the downturn but chose Phoenix instead because I thought it had a deeper economy. The housing stock in both markets was relatively new, which is just the opposite from my City where the buildings are much older. Vegas took a bit longer to recover than Phoenix. That's ancient history now. I expect Vegas to add lots of new construction now. Orange County and Seattle have very high prices - and it's less because of the higher wages people make than the inability to add new housing stock to the market. California rates as the most difficult state to build. They will continue to lose middle class and working class residents to Vegas.
I've bought and did a flip, in Las Vegas during 2014-2016. I tried buying more in 2017-2018, but got out bid every single time. More inventory came into the LV market during mid 2018, like double to about 3000 SFR, but 6000 is considered balanced and normal. So still in seller's market, but seller's are asking a lot in list price. I see more price reductions now than multiple offers.
I'm in situation now where do I take 350k in profits or hold and buy more? A wise person said that you never lose money when you take profits.
I've bought and did a flip, in Las Vegas during 2014-2016. I tried buying more in 2017-2018, but got out bid every single time. More inventory came into the LV market during mid 2018, like double to about 3000 SFR, but 6000 is considered balanced and normal. So still in seller's market, but seller's are asking a lot in list price. I see more price reductions now than multiple offers.
I'm in situation now where do I take 350k in profits or hold and buy more? A wise person said that you never lose money when you take profits.
Terry
Take the money. Inventory is steadily on the rise, sales have actually declined, DOM is rising, interest rates are rising, and the entire Vegas economy subsists on nonessentials that don't weather an economic downturn well.
Leaning towards the money. Waiting for spring, as this might the be last hurrah for additional price appreciation. The Las Vegas forecast is 7.9%, and this is double what the national forecast rate. I was not into real estate investing, but owned my own home in southern california. I knew the market was bad, and did not look or keep track.
Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2018 · 403 posts · 474 votes
7y
If anyone is interested, I pulled some deeper rental data for Las Vegas, by property type, unit type, geographical area. Property types: Multifamily, condos, SFR (townhouses and houses). Unit types: # bedrooms. Areas: north, east, south, northwest, southwest, Henderson.
I included average rents, median rents, average days on market, and number of units leased in each segment. Then got the % changes from 2017 to 2018.
Article here (with opportunity to download all the stats)