Real Estate Investor · New York, NY · Member since 2014 · 32 posts · 38 votes
Hi all, I am looking into some turnkey properties in midwestern markets that cash flow decently. This has lead me to wonder how long-time investors change their investing approach as the real estate market goes through its various cycles. Obviously it would be great to be buying depressed properties like in 2012, but that’s not the case now.
Now, there are many indicators that we are nearing the end of a huge growth cycle in the real estate market. Turnkey properties now command a premium. Where SFH’s may have been 60k a few years ago, they are 90k now. Even so, there is still decent cash flow to be had.
My question is this: in the grand scheme of things, my plan is to buy and hold for a very long time. In that case, does it matter if I pay 80k for a turnkey just to see the market take a modern downturn in a few years? What should my strategy be, to just buy cash flowing properties and if the market goes down continue to buy more properties for cheaper prices (similar to dollar cost averaging in equities)?
Any wisdom from old timers and new investors alike is welcome!!
Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
7y
This old timer is redeploying some capital from value plays to cash flow plays (and always adding value).
I am also investing more with others now...sponsors who have full time staff dedicated to putting hundreds (or more) of opportunities through the pipeline.
Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2011 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
7y
Predicting when a down turn in real estate is going to happen is very difficult. Analyzing a property is much easier. If you spend that 80k on a solid, cash flowing property and don't overleverage you will be fine either way. Then when the market does go down you will be in good shape to buy more.
Real Estate Broker · Bay Area · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
7y
I think you have to look at large Macro view to give you a general idea on how aggressive you want to be. My timeline is 10, 20, and 30yrs. I plan to buy when the market is up, down, and flat. As long as it fits the parameters I have set for myself. In your case, you are buying $90k rental. Let's say that prices go down 20% your property is now $72k. That won't hurt you. If that were to happen. That's not a bad thing. It gives you the opportunity to scale in and buy more.
As much as we would all love to bottom pick and top sell. We have no idea what will happen. All I can do is manage my risk and scale into and out of deals. Here is the cool thing about investing in real estate. You don't have to predict the future to make money.
Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
7y
This old timer is redeploying some capital from value plays to cash flow plays (and always adding value).
I am also investing more with others now...sponsors who have full time staff dedicated to putting hundreds (or more) of opportunities through the pipeline.