First investment - deal or no deal?

First investment - deal or no deal?

Houston, TX · Member since 2013 · 34 posts · 4 votes

My wife and I are contemplating on whether we should proceed with a contract we have on a house that would be our first investment rental property. Would love to know other investors thoughts on whether they would proceed with the deal or pass.

Here is some background and rental analysis for the property.
- Located in a good rental neighborhood in Houston. Estimating rents $1200 - $1250

- Listed for $95K; seller received 2 full price offers within the first week of listing. Ours was the third. Seller accepted first but that buyer backed out in inspection period since all the plumbing to be replaced. Second buyer had already moved on. Seller accepted our offer and agreed to replace all plumbing for $5650 (now completed); work included replacing electric water heater, new toilet, faucet, etc.

- Seller also agreed to replace roof for about $8500.

- Other than those two items house is in good rental condition: new carpet, new appliances, granite in kitchen. Estimating we'd spend $3000 - $5000 to replace garage door, minor sheetrock patching where plumbing work was done, blinds, some paint, clean up, replace electric box, etc.

Here are the numbers I ran using JScott's SFH Rental analysis spreadsheet. Thanks JScott!

Cost Assumptions
- Purchase Price $95K, Improvements/Rehab $5K, Closing Costs $4750

Financing Assumptions
- Down payment 20%, Interest rate 4.3%, Mortgage 30 yrs, Mortgage PMT $374, Cash Outlay $28750

Expenses:
- Monthly rent $1200, Vacancy rate 8.3%, Property Taxes $2418, Variable Cost PM 13% (includes leasing fee), HOA $200, Insurance $800, Maintenance $720 (annual).

Cash Flow and ROI
- Annual Cash flow $2850, Cash ROI 9.95%, Total ROI 14.40%

Is it really worth it to proceed with a deal that provides 9.95% COC and $238 monthly cash flow? Or should we sit tight and wait till we can get a deal that meets our goal for 15% COC and $300 - $400 monthly cash flow?

Thanks all in advance!

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  • Eric TaitPro Member
    Investor · Houston, TX · Member since 2013 · 314 posts · 146 votes
    13y

    What is the ARV value (after repaired value) of the house? With that I may be able to tell you how to use hard money to drop your out of pocket and increase your ROI.
    I can also tell you if you are getting a big enough discount, although the houston market it tight, there are deals to be had out here where you can still get a significant discount to ARV on initial purchase price.

  • Houston, TX · Member since 2013 · 34 posts · 4 votes
    13y

    ARV is probably $110k best case $115k. Thanks!

  • Houston, TX · Member since 2013 · 2 posts · 0 votes
    13y

    Your maintenance yearly is a little low. For SFR in Houston, it will more than likely be 1.2% of your house value for maintenance and deferred maintenance yearly which bring your COC to a little over 8%. I don't know where you can find 15% COC, but I been looking in the Katy area and once in a blue moon, there's a property that shows up with a 6 or 7 COC and I got outbid every single time so far.

  • Eric TaitPro Member
    Investor · Houston, TX · Member since 2013 · 314 posts · 146 votes
    13y

    As a thought experiment you could look at using hard money.

    Assume 3 points (3K) added to your closing costs, but they will lend you 75% of the ARV - $86,250 assuming $115,000 ARV

    So now you are out of pocket $12,740 (your original closing costs and closing fees and rehab) on the 3K on the hard money loan.

    Assuming you rehab it in 60 days (very long for a rental) you are out another $1725 in interest expense plus let's say $400 for utilities.

    Then you refi into your permanent loan where you have another set of closing costs of around your original $4750.

    Your total out of pocket in this scenario is around $19,700.

    Your new mortgage is $426.83. on $86,250

    This now give you a COC of around 11% in this scenario with about 10K less out of pocket all else being equal.

  • Investor · Cypress, TX · Member since 2013 · 403 posts · 59 votes
    13y

    That's alot of money to put in for only $238 in cash flow. Are you certain of the property taxes and insurance. Seems kinda low but I guess it depends on where exactly the property is and how big it is. Your not getting much capital gain either. I'm really surprised they agreed to do the pipes and roof. Most are selling as is. I know there has to be some better deals out there for you.

  • Houston, TX · Member since 2013 · 34 posts · 4 votes
    13y

    Thanks guys for taking the time to respond. We decided to pass on the deal and keep looking. Eric Tait I'll definitely look into using HML for our next deal.

  • Eric TaitPro Member
    Investor · Houston, TX · Member since 2013 · 314 posts · 146 votes
    13y

    Ok, I can give you the names of a few when you are ready.

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