I tracked 2,405 Memphis rentals to the day they leased.

[Andrew Glisson]

I run a property management company in Memphis, and I got tired of guessing how long a vacancy would really take. 

So we started following every rental listing we could find in the city, night by night, from the day it appeared to the day it came down.

2,405 of them have now gone all the way through the cycle. A few things the data says that I did not expect:
The citywide median is 31 days from list to lease. Not the "we lease in a week" you hear in marketing, and not the 60 days people fear when they are budgeting vacancy.

The zip spread is bigger than the citywide number suggests. Collierville (38017) leases in about 16 days. 38122 takes about 39. Same metro, more than double the wait. Chart attached with every zip that has 20 or more completed cycles.

The thing that actually moves the clock is the price cut. Listings that never cut their asking rent take about 31 days. When a listing does cut, it leases in a median of 7 days after the cut. The market answers fast when you meet it.

If you are underwriting Memphis, the practical takeaway: budget vacancy by zip, not by the citywide average, and if a listing sits past the zip median with low activity, the data says the ask is the problem.

Happy to pull the number for a specific zip if anyone wants it.

[Aaron Breckenridge]

Damn, that's a great analysis!