Downturn Scares? Preparation?

Downturn Scares? Preparation?

Investor · Saint Louis, MO · Member since 2016 · 970 posts · 1k+ votes

So theres a ton of talk about being over leveraged, a downturn or correction is coming, etc etc.


Well, I'm pretty leveraged. It was the only way to succeed without a 350k/year 9-5. brrr over and over.

So correct me if I'm wrong but what does anyone have to be scared of if the following conditions apply in a meltdown

1. youre locked into a 30 year conventional or 7 year commercial loan and the banks cannot re-appraise or call in full your loan as long as mortgages are being paid  per the closing docs

2. your rents can take 25-35% cut and still break even on all mortages, taxes, and insurance

3. you live in a populated and buzzing area where demand has always been heavy and unless a bomb dropped on it (yay insurance) you shouldn't have trouble finding renters

4. downturn --> people lose jobs and homes or try to downsize and  turn to renting  (good thing).

5. have solid tenants that have older co-signers (parents, guardians)

Am I missing something that the banks can still do to me even if I'm paying my debts on time?

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Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
8y
Stock up on McRibs while you can. The end is nigh. I've seen it in the coffee grounds.
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  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Jay Hinrichs That jet would have got you two Lambos.

    What @David Zheng doesn't know is that the first Lambo gets you the connections, the second one gets you the girlfriend. Halfway there!

     I wish a jet  try 3 million and up for a JEt or turbine mine is a just a little bug smasher.. albeit a nice one  !!

  • Investor · Malakoff, TX · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    8y

    Wow, that's more impressive to me than the care.  Guess I better check into one  ;  )

  • Joe SplitrockPro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
    8y

    @David Zheng that is my dream car. I have loved Lambos since I was a kid. There is no car more beautiful. I am pretty sure if I had a car like that when I was your age, it would have landed me in jail. Stay safe. I am going to hit you up for a ride next time I am in St. Louis.

  • Ian WalshBusiness Member
    Lender · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8y

    Too much leverage broke a lot of owners that had 10-20 properties in the last down turn.  Portfolios don't seem to have the nice and easy 1 vacancy every so often.  For whatever reason, when someone's portfolio takes a down turn, it usually pours.  So a 20 unit portfolio at some point will see 5-7 vacancies at one time.  In order to turn that ship around, there are mortgages that need paid, evictions that need completed and turn overs that await.  That gets really expensive and when you multiply it by 5x most people find they try to tread water by going back to a day job and eventually can't sustain.  The ones that make it have very low leverage and planned for a rainy day by putting the cash flow aside.  This was just the experience I witnessed in 08-09. We were just starting to build a management company and saw a lot of this over a sample size of about 300 properties and a bunch of different owners.  Today the management company has thousands of units and the clients that went through this are washed out of the game for the most part.  The clients at the top of a market are totally different.

  • Realtor · Charleston, SC · Member since 2016 · 229 posts · 159 votes
    8y

    " Be cautious/fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful/cautious." ~Pretty Famous Investor 

    Also, as mentioned by someone who I believe to be a 100% genius...stock up on that MCrib while you can...thats the future!! @Jim K.  best thing I have read all day...thank you

  • Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    8y

    @Chris Armstrong

    ¡Hasta la revolución siempre!

    Flaked and formed forever.

  • Cambridge, MA · Member since 2017 · 268 posts · 247 votes
    8y

    Evidence is stacking up that residential real estate has at least hit a soft patch. Last week, the National Association of Realtors reported that seasonally adjusted existing-home sales declined for the fourth consecutive month in July, a drop of 0.7%. The decline was particularly steep in the northeast at 8.3%.

     While house prices are remaining relatively firm, housing sales, and therefore mortgage volumes, aren’t faring as well. 

    This week the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index showed home-price appreciation slowed to 6.2% from a year earlier in June, down from 6.4% in July. Weakness again was concentrated in the northeast. New York was the only one of the 20 major cities tracked to see a fall in prices from a month earlier.

    These figures are far from dire. Aaron Terrazas, senior economist at Zillow Group, says the housing market is being supported by a strong national economy, particularly in rural areas and smaller cities. At the same time, stretched affordability after years of price gains, and the reduced deduction for state and local taxes, are weighing on certain markets, especially in high-cost coastal areas

  • Seattle, WA · Member since 2014 · 308 posts · 170 votes
    7y

    This was a fun thread to read thru. So many not worried...aka have it all figured out. Myself I loved that last downturn. I built the bulk of my REI portfolio on the backs of investors who were A. overleveraged or B. really thought it wouldn't get that bad. The market now has all the makings of another roll over. I don't need to get into them. It also has way better fundamentals to keep it from doing so. At the end of the day only one thing can really topple the REI investor and first is leverage and second is no tenants. I would focus on #1. As well bigger has proven thru time too many times bigger is not better. Myself, I haven't sold any of my homes from the great downturn for paltry 50-100% gains. I sit on 4 baggers and have reaped the rent rewards ever since. Every property has paid for it self twice over since then and its pure profit. Now these rentals buy other rentals for cash.

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