Arizona Governor Issues Statewide Stay At Home Order

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Arizona Governor Issues Statewide Stay At Home Order

Wes Blackwell
Real Estate Agent · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2016 · 738 posts · 1k+ votes



https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/03/30/arizona-coronavirus-stay-home-order-issued-gov-doug-ducey/5088109002/

"Gov. Doug Ducey on Monday issued a statewide "stay-at-home" order to stop the spread of new coronavirus, barring Arizonans from leaving their residences except for food, medicine and other essentials.

The order will take effect at the close of business Tuesday.

"Our goal here is to protect the lives of those we love most and to ensure the health care system has the capacity to provide them with the care and comfort they deserve," the Republican leader said at an afternoon press briefing."

Arizona follows California's footsteps in issuing a statewide stay-at-home order to help prevent the further spread of the Coronavirus.

HOW WILL THIS IMPACT THE PHOENIX HOUSING MARKET?

A couple of weeks ago when the virus was first making national headlines, it didn't seem to have much of an impact at all. I was still getting 5-6 people per day through my open houses. And besides less shaking of hands, there didn't seem to be much impact on my business. 

But now that homebuyers are being told to stay home, that may throw a wrench in the purchase and sale of housing statewide.

Luckily, Realtors have had a couple weeks to adjust while people were still out and about, and more virtual showings and meetings through Facetime were happening than ever before. 

But this stay-at-home order not only impacts how many people show up to open houses, but also affects the people being told to stay home from their jobs, and the effect that has on the economy nationwide.

MY HOPES FOR THE PHOENIX HOUSING MARKET:

My hope is that within 30-60 days the Coronavirus hysteria will be over, and things will quickly return back to normal. But we'll have to wait and see what happens and how this stay at home order affects the local economy.

The upper price-range of homes may feel the impact the hardest, as buyers and sellers of luxury homes are usually business owners with part of their portfolio tied up in other assets that are feeling a greater impact.

The housing demand for the bread-and-butter price (sub $300k) should hopefully only be stalled or delayed, and ideally we'll see some pent up demand be unleashed in the summer and fall if things get back to normal. 

But, it's still a little early to tell what is going to be the lasting impact, and this new stay at home order for Arizona is definitely more negative than I had hoped for. 

For now, keep your finger on the pulse and get info from various sources to make your predictions. No one has a crystal ball, and everyone is making their best educated guesses.

Things are changing pretty rapidly, and we'll have to wait a week or two to see the effects of this stay at home order and how it affects employees, small businesses, tenants and landlords alike. Also, how the real estate industry adapts to the potential changes in consumer demand.

If anyone has any specific predictions for the Phoenix market, I know there are many investors and real estate professionals that would love to hear your thoughts, so please share.

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  • Account Closed
    Contractor · Placerville, CA · Member since 2019 · 85 posts · 66 votes
    6y

    @Wes Blackwell thanks for sharing this Wes. Hope you and yours will be well. Phoenix investors please chime in on this.

    0Reply
  • Gil Segev
    Austin · Member since 2018 · 108 posts · 47 votes
    6y

    I just completed a flip and can't put it on the market for at least a month and who knows how the market will look when this shelter at home order is lifted.. 

    0Reply
  • Matthew Terry
    Rental Property Investor · Mesa, AZ · Member since 2019 · 138 posts · 144 votes
    6y

    The market will largely depend on how effective the CARES act and future stimulus is. Loan forbearance, unemployment stimulus, SBA emergency loans, and penalty\tax free draw from IRAs might keep real estate sustained in general. Phoenix has a very diverse job market and might not be hit as hard with unemployment compared to other large cities. Inexpensive property taxes will help, too. I think the market will also depend on how hard our state gets hit with COVID19. It is a very sad thing to think about, but thousands of deaths might mean thousands of homes added to inventory.


    As we enter a recession in such a major appreciation market, SFH prices will probably fall. I would imagine that all the investors who are over-leveraged or have subpar performing properties will seek to exit as fast as they can, especially if they are short term rentals. Even with price reduction, many people who were saving for a down payment will have another few years added on to the time it will take because they might be burning through savings to survive. This means rental demand might climb. As a long term buy/hold investor myself, this might be the perfect scenario of rent:value ratios going up in Phoenix.

    Construction and building maintenance companies are part of the essential list, so property managers and contractors can still work which makes buy\hold a good avenue. 

    There might be an uptick in Section 8 demand considering the safety net of gauranteed rent, often which pays for PITI even if the tenant doesn'\can't pay their portion.

    0Reply
  • Matt Morgan
    Residential Agent And Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2013 · 212 posts · 83 votes
    6y

    This changes very little as the list of essential services in Arizona is much, much broader than many other states with stay at home orders. Real estate IS on the essential services list, so business can continue like normal.

    0Reply
  • Paul Welden
    Real Estate Agent · Tempe, AZ · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 543 votes
    6y

    Virtually meaningless as there is almost no way to enforce it. However, it probably does allow the cities to enact more specific lockdown/shutdown measures. 

    0Reply
  • Wes Blackwell
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2016 · 738 posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    The challenge is that we don't have enough data yet to really look at the numbers and make any meaningful predictions or summations of the effect so far.

    There will likely be an increase in supply for the coming months in the Phoenix market, as the Covid crisis will undoubtedly push some homeowners in foreclosure, force some AirBnb investors to sell off some properties, and kick the iBuyers out of the market for now and force sellers to sell via traditional means if needed.

    It may be reasonable to expect a short-term recession (and I mean super short term, as everyone is hoping this will be over in 60-90 days), but it's not reasonable to expect a massive depreciation of home values or another foreclosure crisis like in 2008.

    Home prices in the Phoenix market have risen consistently since 2013 (like most of the country), but not outside the affordability range of average home buyer with a median home price of $265k or so.

    If the majority of average buyers can weather the storm with government aid and such, then we should be ok and bounce back fairly quickly once the pandemic subsides. 

    0Reply
  • Daniela Muhammad
    Developer · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 20 posts · 3 votes
    6y

    Really great & informative info! Thank you for posting this. This is a great time to get creative and think outside of the box! If we could've predicted this COVID-19 hysteria & global reset, what would we have done differently? How would we have planned better? Passive & recession proof income is my best guess. Our team is feverishly & excitedly working on some projects to set us up for security & insurance in the event this happens again.

    0Reply
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