Rental Property Investor · Minot, ND · Member since 2020 · 47 posts · 18 votes
Friends,
I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on the ND real estate market in 2021. In my area (Minot) single family homes can still be found at reasonable prices and rent well. I'm cashing flowing $300+ on the two I have currently. I close on my 3rd next week and it projects to do even better. However, multi-family deals seem to be expensive, overdeveloped and in short supply on the MLS. I'm optimistic that Air Force base upgrades (North) and the Trinity hospital development (South) will create a positive growth trend over the course of the next 5+ years. This year I am seeing estimates of 8% appreciation in the zip codes I own property in.
I am expanding my radius to find a good multi family or small apartment deal, but have no idea how to evaluate the more rural areas. Bismarck looks to be pretty expensive and Williston/Dickinson I worry about due to the current politics surrounding fossil fuels. Grand Forks/Fargo are a bit beyond my reach.
Any other thoughts/strategies for your neck of the woods this year?
Minot is a strange environment, no doubt. The established investors seem to stay rather quite. Fortunately for all of us, BP has really supported a new wave of investors for ND's big four (Minot, Fargo, Bismark, & Grand Forks). The other thing with Minot is that it was completely overbuilt a few years back due to the oil boom, but now that the population is back on the rise for reasons other than oil, vacancies are being filled. Currently you can buy existing property for cheaper than you can build it, but my estimate is that will change in the next 3 to 5 years.
Also... DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE RURAL ND. I bought a 6,000 square foot building on main street in a small town for $120,000 with a 1.9% interest rate, and in the next 3 years it will net $3,000/mo up from $1,000/mo today. Find a SFH that can do that. ;)
I've found quite a few good deals in the Bismarck area. They are out there, but 90% of them aren't on the MLS. Most Realtors that list a rental/multi family property list them like they were a single-family residence and try to price them like their someone's forever home. I got my Realtor license a few years ago thinking i could save the commission and get access to more deals. I think since I've became a Realtor I've only bought one of the last 10 properties I've purchased on the MLS. Everything has been off market/word of mouth.
Definitely don’t bother with Dickinson/ Williston and rural. I see vacancy rates going up and rent going down in the next few years, along with depreciation. I’ve owned my personal home in Dickinson for about 6 years and would guess I have zero appreciation. Bismarck is where I invest, solid numbers with positive growth.
I am also worried about the impact that a declining oilfield could present. I agree that the AFB and Trinity add stability to the area specifically around Minot, but I am always fearful of a reduction in the Air Force presence here. I am currently considering the Grand Forks and Fargo areas pretty strongly. While they are a ways away, they have pretty steady growth (Fargo especially). There are some good property managers over there and contractor rates are cheaper than the western part of the state. I think a lot of the deal searching could be done from home with just a few trips to inspect properties. Maybe I am wrong, because I am very new to this, but I wouldn't discount the eastern side of the state just yet.
I feel your pain, Im about to buy a town house in Watford. Im not going big, but I should be able to hold it for a few years until the market comes back. A few podcast on here say try craigslist so I did. From talking with him I can't be for sure if its a real lead or not. The Minot market should be pretty good.
You know I called every brokerage in town a couple of weeks ago to figure out how local investors are getting together and networking. Minot seems to be a very closed loop. Additionally, there is no REA org here that I'm tracking. I'm trying to break in to the word of mouth circle, but it's been tougher than I initially thought it would be. Or maybe... there is just not that much action here. Could be an opportunity. My wife is also working on her license for the same reason you did, so I'm disappointed to hear it didn't aid you too much. I'm contemplating doing some direct mail to see if I can generate some off market that way.
@Matthew Rogers, I’m in Minot. To speak to the fear of the Air Force numbers declining, that’s a big no. They won’t downsize as long as the missile field doesn’t move... it’s not going anywhere 😁. Don’t forget the university as well. I’ve heard people speak poorly of ND, but Minot is a little different. Like you said, there are multiple supports here. I’d be curious to see what you come up with.
I own rental property in both Williston and Watford City. I live in Watford City as well. Yeah there was a decline in people dur to Corona Virus crashing the Oil prices. But it is steadily coming back. My rentals have staying full and i have had to lower my rents a little bit but still doing really well. Im optimistic that things will get back on track and Fossil Fuels will not take to much of a hit under a Biden Administration. I am currently in the mix on picking up 2 apartment buildings and a duplex in Minot ND. as well as starting to buy fixer uppers and remodeling them. i would love to connect with Minot investors and talk about property managers and who is preferred in the area.
Your right about the AF. I’m an officer up there and I know for a fact hundreds of millions are headed this way for weapons systems upgrades. Expect contractors flocking in like crazy in 3-5 years. High paying jobs and these personnel will be looking for nice rentals. The Air Force has looked at contracting temp housing from the oil companies. It’s going to be great.
Minot, Malmstrom, and F.E. Warren AFBs are the 3 ICBM bases that will be impacted. Unfortunately, Ellsworth has different mission sets and will not be in the mix for those funds.
Minot is a strange environment, no doubt. The established investors seem to stay rather quite. Fortunately for all of us, BP has really supported a new wave of investors for ND's big four (Minot, Fargo, Bismark, & Grand Forks). The other thing with Minot is that it was completely overbuilt a few years back due to the oil boom, but now that the population is back on the rise for reasons other than oil, vacancies are being filled. Currently you can buy existing property for cheaper than you can build it, but my estimate is that will change in the next 3 to 5 years.
Also... DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE RURAL ND. I bought a 6,000 square foot building on main street in a small town for $120,000 with a 1.9% interest rate, and in the next 3 years it will net $3,000/mo up from $1,000/mo today. Find a SFH that can do that. ;)
I was thinking 12th or 13th late afternoon/evening. Maybe a buffalo wild wings because its on the south side of town. I'm open to any other ideas as well. I know its a trek from BisMan area so I'm happy to shoot down there next time as well.
I could probably make either of those days work. Maybe some of us Bismarck folk can get a caravan going to Minot like those peeps from guatamala go to the border!
I think we have enough consensus to nail down an event. Let's do 6:30 @Buffalo Wild Wings (Minot) on Friday the 12th. I'll make the reservation. Of course, invite anyone else not affiliated with this thread that would be interested in coming. The focus of the meeting: 1) Meet & Greet 2) discuss establishing a recurring meeting plan that works for both Minot & Bismarck participants (and everywhere in between) 3) discuss future meeting content (guest speakers, education, etc...)
I really look forward to getting to know everyone and think that, when we work together, we can add a lot of value to our communities and make ND a better place to live. PM me for my cell phone # if you do not already have it and we can discuss any other questions/comments/concerns.@Matt Fogle
Stanley is a cool little town. I'm not sure what the long term economic viability is there with all the political turmoil surrounding the fossil fuel industry. What would be your investment strategy?