Boston refuses to cash flow

Boston refuses to cash flow

Contractor · Boston, MA · Member since 2018 · 38 posts · 16 votes

Hey, everybody,

I'm not quite sure if there are problems with my calcs, or if everything I find on market are simply bad deals. Please let me know if I'm doing anything wrong here? Here's the details...

I plan to use FHA loan on a multi. Initially, I will house hack, but I'm running numbers to see what it will do once I leave and it becomes solely an income property. I'm analyzing North shore homes, 2 & 3 families, on the outskirts of the city. I've worked out some kinks and THINK I am as accurate as I can get.

I'm using list prices from MLS and estimating rents from craigslist. I'm including closing costs into the mortgage ($7,500 generically, is there a good percentage to use?). 5% (each) for vacancies, repairs, and cap-ex. 10% for management. Local utilities have been estimated, and of course, PITI and PMI using a mortgage calculator.

With 2 families -($500k-$525k range)
What I'm finding is that they refuse to cash flow with 5% down. At 20% down they will cash flow but the COC ROI is under 4%, and also falls shy of the 1% rule. (I've also included a 1% "clean-up" cost for minor repairs/paint as a one-time cash expense, into the COC ROI)

With 3 families -($600k range)
At 5% down payment, they seem to cash flow nicely, over $200/door, although the 50% rule is pretty negative and I just meet the 1% rule. In this scenario, the COC ROI is suspiciously inflated at over 20%. (Also included the 1% clean-up fee).

3 fam- ($650k range)
The numbers are much more realistic. Cashflow just over $100/door. COC ROI 11%, but 50% rule is WAY negative (About $1k) and falls under 1% rule.

I'm aware the 20% vs. 5% down payment makes a world of difference, plus saving the PMI. I can't afford 20% on a 3 family, and the 20% on 2-family scenario just seems off to me at 4% COC ROI.

So...Is anything glaringly off with my numbers, or is this expected for the current market?

Thanks for reading!


 


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Real Estate Agent · Princeton, NJ · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
6y

@Rob Ferdinand - if you’re living in it, 40-50% expense ratio is too high. Out of of $48,000/year of gross income I maybe spend $2000 on repairs and capex combined. So 5% vs 10%. I also don’t spend anything on a property manager and everyone pays on time with zelle with less than 2 hours a month of checking in with people, so that’s 10% off. In high high demand areas you’ll see very low vacancy akin to 2 weeks every 2 years, but that depends on how good you are at marketing and maintenance. Ideally pass through all water and sewage with prorata or rubs and you only have left insurance, property taxes, and minor common area maintenance like landscaping.

- My favorite strategy to build wealth is to buy a huge house 5+ bedrooms 2400+ sf and have professional roommates- the busier/ more workaholic, the better- you barely see these ones. People spend money for bedrooms, especially near jobs. The extra space wasted on extra living rooms and kitchens doesn’t really pay off. Some places have rules about rooming houses and how many unrelated people can live together. Often you have exceptions for owner occupied housing. Example numbers - $4000/mo rent on a $400k asset in Washington dc suburbs close to many office buildings. Mortgage is 2400ish. Cash flow is approx $1000/mo because highly occupied (98%+) and BTW you live for FREE. Neighbors rent their homes for 2400ish. There arent any duplexes to buy and professionals grouping up is very common. STRs only recently got a bad rap because of excessive use of police resources (kicking out smokers, parties, etc.) and now require fees and a license.

- Back to your 2-3-4 unit dilemma. Investigate appreciation in various areas you are considering. Appreciation is highest in good school districts near high paying jobs where additional housing isn’t being built due to restrictive zoning. Where do you or would you rent and can you find somewhere nearby there? The purpose of the house hack is to live cheaper than you would just renting and you get a cheap loan and appreciation.

- You could try to buy a foreclosure fixer upper with a Fannie home style or fha 203k rehab loan where they build the construction $$ into the cost. Unknown if they will give you income credit for the other units though so you can buy a bigger asset. Often with normal fha you will pay top of market prices or you won’t get your offer accepted.

- In addition to being on a real estate agent’s auto-email list for multifamily, consider sending direct mail or driving for dollars to try to buy something off market from a motivated seller. You can still get normal loans on off market properties.

- Lastly — good luck and go do it!

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  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    I am not from Boston, but some of the economics are similar in my City.  Two units in decent areas never cash flowed well in my career.  Many of the buyers are owner occupants who are content with getting some of their mortgage paid on their pricey real estate.  

    Strong markets, like Boston are expensive.  There is a shortage of housing stock (supply).  This translates into above average appreciation.  So some of the implied return is more appreciation that cash flow.

    From my travels to Boston, as a tourist since I was a kid - the City has become more wealthy and gentrified.  It is a city that attracts top talent.  And some neighborhoods that were blue collar have changed.

  • Rental Property Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2015 · 14 posts · 13 votes
    6y

    @Rob Ferdinand I live in Boston and invest out of state for this reason. In the past people have invested in Boston for the appreciation and stability. Yes, it’s a market with high demand due to a great economy and lots of student so your vacancy rate will be much lower. Also your maintenance will be lower as a percent of your rents since rents are very high. However Covid has hit Boston really hard and much of our economy is based on people needing to congregate in the city for work or class. I’d imagine the rental market here is going to take a bit more of a beating so I wouldn’t bet on appreciation. Check out Worcester, Southern NH or Providence for a better cash flow.

  • Real Estate Agent · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2019 · 448 posts · 320 votes
    6y

    I am not sure if this is the case in Boston, but when I see overpriced deals in other markets (example, Los Angeles) I just assume the pricing reflects both high demand and the hope/expectation that at that price the property value will appreciate quickly and somehow make an otherwise poor ROI into a good one. I've always felt that hope is a risky investment strategy that is bound to backfire at some point. Also, sometimes it's just the seller testing the market with an extremely high price and they aren't really that serious about selling.

    I guess if the initial return is really low to a point it's OK if other metrics such as price per SF, vacancy, below market rent, location, etc make sense.  

  • Rental Property Investor · Washington, DC · Member since 2019 · 7 posts · 4 votes
    6y

    @Rob Ferdinand unfortunately, NJ is mostly the same way unless you can get a stellar deal in south jersey. The property taxes are just getting too high that the cash flow is hardly worth it. Closer to north jersey and other cities seem to be more appreciation plays as supposed to cash flow plays. Best of luck!

  • Specialist · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Rob Ferdinand:

    Hey, everybody,

    I'm not quite sure if there are problems with my calcs, or if everything I find on market are simply bad deals. Please let me know if I'm doing anything wrong here? Here's the details...

    I plan to use FHA loan on a multi. Initially, I will house hack, but I'm running numbers to see what it will do once I leave and it becomes solely an income property. I'm analyzing North shore homes, 2 & 3 families, on the outskirts of the city. I've worked out some kinks and THINK I am as accurate as I can get.

    I'm using list prices from MLS and estimating rents from craigslist. I'm including closing costs into the mortgage ($7,500 generically, is there a good percentage to use?). 5% (each) for vacancies, repairs, and cap-ex. 10% for management. Local utilities have been estimated, and of course, PITI and PMI using a mortgage calculator.

    With 2 families -($500k-$525k range)
    What I'm finding is that they refuse to cash flow with 5% down. At 20% down they will cash flow but the COC ROI is under 4%, and also falls shy of the 1% rule. (I've also included a 1% "clean-up" cost for minor repairs/paint as a one-time cash expense, into the COC ROI)

    With 3 families -($600k range)
    At 5% down payment, they seem to cash flow nicely, over $200/door, although the 50% rule is pretty negative and I just meet the 1% rule. In this scenario, the COC ROI is suspiciously inflated at over 20%. (Also included the 1% clean-up fee).

    3 fam- ($650k range)
    The numbers are much more realistic. Cashflow just over $100/door. COC ROI 11%, but 50% rule is WAY negative (About $1k) and falls under 1% rule.

    I'm aware the 20% vs. 5% down payment makes a world of difference, plus saving the PMI. I can't afford 20% on a 3 family, and the 20% on 2-family scenario just seems off to me at 4% COC ROI.

    So...Is anything glaringly off with my numbers, or is this expected for the current market?

    Thanks for reading!


     


     Despite what you heard on BP (believe it or not) properties with a 5% DP don't "cash flow". Nor are they supposed to.

    You should be investing for profit anyway.

  • Rental Property Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2017 · 44 posts · 17 votes
    6y

    As others have pointed out, you do not need to estimate 50% for maintenance.  As a rule of thumb, I use 30% including property management, which you can get for under 10%.  It's worked well for me so far.  The reality is if you're collecting 2x or more in rent than people are in LCOL areas, the repair work will be more expensive but it's not 2x.  A faucet is still a faucet.  If you're renting a triple decker for 8k/month, you're not paying 4k/month (48k/yr) in maintenance.  That would mean you were replacing major systems or a roof on a yearly basis.  

    You can find the deal you want.  You just have to get creative and keep hunting.  
      

  • Contractor · Boston, MA · Member since 2018 · 38 posts · 16 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Rob Gifford:

    @Rob Ferdinand I live in Boston and invest out of state for this reason. In the past people have invested in Boston for the appreciation and stability. Yes, it’s a market with high demand due to a great economy and lots of student so your vacancy rate will be much lower. Also your maintenance will be lower as a percent of your rents since rents are very high. However Covid has hit Boston really hard and much of our economy is based on people needing to congregate in the city for work or class. I’d imagine the rental market here is going to take a bit more of a beating so I wouldn’t bet on appreciation. Check out Worcester, Southern NH or Providence for a better cash flo

    Hey, Rob. Thanks for the reply. It's funny, I've been hearing that advice a lot lately. People keep suggesting far West or far South, OR out of state altogether. I'll start checking the markets in NH/RI. My personal dilemma is I need to stay local but I really want to take advantage of an FHA loan (and house hack)...Decisions, decisions.

  • Contractor · Boston, MA · Member since 2018 · 38 posts · 16 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Zac Ballin:

    As others have pointed out, you do not need to estimate 50% for maintenance.  As a rule of thumb, I use 30% including property management, which you can get for under 10%.  It's worked well for me so far.  The reality is if you're collecting 2x or more in rent than people are in LCOL areas, the repair work will be more expensive but it's not 2x.  A faucet is still a faucet.  If you're renting a triple decker for 8k/month, you're not paying 4k/month (48k/yr) in maintenance.  That would mean you were replacing major systems or a roof on a yearly basis.  

    You can find the deal you want.  You just have to get creative and keep hunting.  
     

    Hey Zac. Thanks for the encouraging words, I'm sure there are plenty of great deals out there for everyone.

    I'm currently modeling about 25% in total. 8% vacancies, 5% repairs, 5% apex, 7% management. 

    I like using the 50% rule as a pulse, but I think I wasn't calculating incorrectly. When deducting the mortgage costs from the 50% left after "expenses", I was using the FULL mortgage which includes taxes, insurance, and PMI. When I changed this and only use the principal and interest as "mortgage costs", it seems to make sense now with the rest of the numbers.


    Sound about right?

  • Rental Property Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2017 · 44 posts · 17 votes
    6y

    @Rob Ferdinand since you have to make the full mortgage payment inclusive of principle I include it in full into cash flow models bc the key is to ensure the property is self sustaining with the debt you need. I deduct 30% from gross projected rent then subtract the mortgage payment to figure out the projected cash flow. Once you get comfortable with it, it will become obvious very quickly which properties should cash flow and which won’t.

  • Contractor · Boston, MA · Member since 2018 · 38 posts · 16 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Bhavik Doshi:

    @Rob Ferdinand unfortunately, NJ is mostly the same way unless you can get a stellar deal in south jersey. The property taxes are just getting too high that the cash flow is hardly worth it. Closer to north jersey and other cities seem to be more appreciation plays as supposed to cash flow plays. Best of luck!

     Thanks!

  • Rental Property Investor · Boston, Massachusetts (MA) · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y

    @Rob Ferdinand cash flow hasn’t been the means for making money in Boston for a while now. Changing demographics have made condo conversions the main mechanism of appreciation for those assets. An older 2-3 family at 600K nicely renovated with 100-200k worth of work and you sell each 2 or 3 bed unit for 4 or 500...that’s a lot of what drove the market through the roof. Who cares about rental cash flow with those numbers? Harder to to that when the multis have that baked in to their prices.

  • Lender · San Diego, CA · Member since 2019 · 874 posts · 355 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Guifre Mora:
    Originally posted by @Rob Ferdinand:

    Hey, everybody,

    I'm not quite sure if there are problems with my calcs, or if everything I find on market are simply bad deals. Please let me know if I'm doing anything wrong here? Here's the details...

    I plan to use FHA loan on a multi. Initially, I will house hack, but I'm running numbers to see what it will do once I leave and it becomes solely an income property. I'm analyzing North shore homes, 2 & 3 families, on the outskirts of the city. I've worked out some kinks and THINK I am as accurate as I can get.

    I'm using list prices from MLS and estimating rents from craigslist. I'm including closing costs into the mortgage ($7,500 generically, is there a good percentage to use?). 5% (each) for vacancies, repairs, and cap-ex. 10% for management. Local utilities have been estimated, and of course, PITI and PMI using a mortgage calculator.

    With 2 families -($500k-$525k range)
    What I'm finding is that they refuse to cash flow with 5% down. At 20% down they will cash flow but the COC ROI is under 4%, and also falls shy of the 1% rule. (I've also included a 1% "clean-up" cost for minor repairs/paint as a one-time cash expense, into the COC ROI)

    With 3 families -($600k range)
    At 5% down payment, they seem to cash flow nicely, over $200/door, although the 50% rule is pretty negative and I just meet the 1% rule. In this scenario, the COC ROI is suspiciously inflated at over 20%. (Also included the 1% clean-up fee).

    3 fam- ($650k range)
    The numbers are much more realistic. Cashflow just over $100/door. COC ROI 11%, but 50% rule is WAY negative (About $1k) and falls under 1% rule.

    I'm aware the 20% vs. 5% down payment makes a world of difference, plus saving the PMI. I can't afford 20% on a 3 family, and the 20% on 2-family scenario just seems off to me at 4% COC ROI.

    So...Is anything glaringly off with my numbers, or is this expected for the current market?

    Thanks for reading!


     

     The way you pose your numbers are very hard to see the calculations and give you realistic feedback. 

    There are markets that don't cash flow at the current prices vs market rent. 

    So if 1% and 50% rule aren't covered you could cashflow but the property is underperforming or is an unhealthy investment. 

    A low ROI (4%) is based on your initial investment divided by cashflow. I bet if you lower the price or calculate a higher rent in the calculations your ROI will go up.

    Ya, I bet if he lowers the price or calculates based of a higher rent the ROI will go up too.

    He's not a broker trying to dupe a buyer. He is the buyer. What good is pissing on his own leg going to do him?

     For him to see the numbers and how they work and why would a property cash flow or not. 
    Im curious what your advise is exactly?
    1% & 50% rule ... very vague. 

  • Contractor · Boston, MA · Member since 2018 · 38 posts · 16 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Jonathan R McLaughlin:

    @Rob Ferdinand cash flow hasn’t been the means for making money in Boston for a while now. Changing demographics have made condo conversions the main mechanism of appreciation for those assets. An older 2-3 family at 600K nicely renovated with 100-200k worth of work and you sell each 2 or 3 bed unit for 4 or 500...that’s a lot of what drove the market through the roof. Who cares about rental cash flow with those numbers? Harder to to that when the multis have that baked in to their prices.

    Makes total sense that's driving the market. A friend of mine, who also happens to be an agent, is listing her $600k 2 family in Winthrop as 2 condos for about $550k each. I'm definitely aware of these opportunities. 

    I'm not positioned with enough capital yet so it closes the doors on a lot of deals, especially when talking big rehabs. I need to find other ways to hustle my way into the game!

    Thanks for the reply!

  • Rental Property Investor · Columbus OH (columbus, oh) · Member since 2020 · 143 posts · 71 votes
    6y

    @Guifre Mora

    Lol. I was sort of waiting for someone to point that out.

  • Developer · Boston, MA · Member since 2016 · 175 posts · 155 votes
    6y

    @Rob Ferdinand FHA buy and hold still work. The key is not to be afraid to make a lot of offers. Run your numbers to where you feel comfortable. I explained this to one client and it worked. She kept watching MLS and saw the listing agent dropped the price. My client quickly offered lower than the new listing price and the seller accepted her offer. Real Estate Investing is a game of numbers. You will never get an accepted offer if you are not writing offers my friend.

  • Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2020 · 4 posts · 3 votes
    6y

    Hi Rob,

    BRRRR or house hack could work in Metro Boston but we find it too difficult to find deals these days because of low inventory and competition. We also find it even more difficult if you'd like to focus on a specific set of towns as there will be even fewer opportunities you could find.

    Based on my analysis around City of Boston and surrounding towns, we pretty much gave up on CoC numbers at this stage because one would have to put down a lot more money to get better CF. We focus more on Buy and Hold in areas where we see strong rental demands and accessible to T. Our aim is to maintain positive CF (even the CoC number is crap initially) just to "cover". We feel that the rent prices will increase within a few years to provide better CF. However, the biggest gain in this market will likely be appreciation and not CF. If you're planning to hold at least 5 years, I'd suggest you tweak you model a bit and see what would happen to CoC if the rent continued to increase per the current trend. I know this is not for everyone but that's also the market we're in, unfortunately. People can't save fast enough to buy and the lack of inventory keep driving the prices up.

    One thing I do think you should consider if you intend to work on more deals. The best decision we've made was to get a real estate agent license. For every property we purchased, we "saved" anywhere from 2-2.5% because we would opt for lowering the sale price instead of collecting our "commission". It didn't make any difference to the sellers and the agents because their net would be the same. This also gives us a little more room in each deal both from a reserve standpoint and in case of a bidding war. Last but not least, as you work with more and more agents in your focused area, you could get first dip on pre-market deals especially if the agents know you could get financing and easy to work with. That's certainly something to consider if you're willing to study for it.

    Cheers, Brian

  • Contractor · Boston, MA · Member since 2018 · 38 posts · 16 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Brian Z.:

    Hi Rob,

    BRRRR or house hack could work in Metro Boston but we find it too difficult to find deals these days because of low inventory and competition. We also find it even more difficult if you'd like to focus on a specific set of towns as there will be even fewer opportunities you could find.

    Based on my analysis around City of Boston and surrounding towns, we pretty much gave up on CoC numbers at this stage because one would have to put down a lot more money to get better CF. We focus more on Buy and Hold in areas where we see strong rental demands and accessible to T. Our aim is to maintain positive CF (even the CoC number is crap initially) just to "cover". We feel that the rent prices will increase within a few years to provide better CF. However, the biggest gain in this market will likely be appreciation and not CF. If you're planning to hold at least 5 years, I'd suggest you tweak you model a bit and see what would happen to CoC if the rent continued to increase per the current trend. I know this is not for everyone but that's also the market we're in, unfortunately. People can't save fast enough to buy and the lack of inventory keep driving the prices up.

    One thing I do think you should consider if you intend to work on more deals. The best decision we've made was to get a real estate agent license. For every property we purchased, we "saved" anywhere from 2-2.5% because we would opt for lowering the sale price instead of collecting our "commission". It didn't make any difference to the sellers and the agents because their net would be the same. This also gives us a little more room in each deal both from a reserve standpoint and in case of a bidding war. Last but not least, as you work with more and more agents in your focused area, you could get first dip on pre-market deals especially if the agents know you could get financing and easy to work with. That's certainly something to consider if you're willing to study for it.

    Cheers, Brian

    Thanks, Brian. Great info. What is the average annual rent increase you use in these models?

  • Contractor · Boston, MA · Member since 2018 · 38 posts · 16 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Josue Velney:

    @Rob Ferdinand FHA buy and hold still work. The key is not to be afraid to make a lot of offers. Run your numbers to where you feel comfortable. I explained this to one client and it worked. She kept watching MLS and saw the listing agent dropped the price. My client quickly offered lower than the new listing price and the seller accepted her offer. Real Estate Investing is a game of numbers. You will never get an accepted offer if you are not writing offers my friend.

    Thanks, Josue. Since this post I've changed my strategy a bit. The end game is the same, but the path to get there may be trying my hand at wholesaling. 

    As you mentioned, it's a numbers game, like anything else. I've received lots of feedback on wholesaling that hasn't been very encouraging. One main point people have been making is that wholesale deals are 1:100. I'm okay with that, so long as I can drum up enough leads ro support the volume of deals I'd need, it's just simple numbers. I've found a lot of great programs and marketing strategies to flip the leads. 

    This post has offered a lot of great insight. I'm wondering what everyone's take is on setting up a wholesaling operation? 

    I think, in the long term, having a wholesaling "lead machine" finding deals would be my best asset to fuel rehab/flips as well as BRRRR and buy & hold rentals.

  • Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2020 · 4 posts · 3 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Rob Ferdinand:

    Thanks, Brian. Great info. What is the average annual rent increase you use in these models? 

    I usually do multiple but simple models using rates between 2% to 5%, so I could see what the return looks like between conservative to aggressive. I think 5% is as high as I would go. 3% is probably a good conservative average. This year is obviously tricky because we could see a little more inventory and coupling with high unemployment. I anticipate we're going to hold steady for the rest of the year at least this is what I'm seeing so far. 

    I do the same thing for ROI. Even at 3% annual increase, we're looking at around double digit ROI in the long haul. I don't do models for other cities, but I do look at similarities between large international metros with no land to build. Places like NYC, SF, Hong Kong, and London are all in a similar situation and you could see continuous increase without slowing down.

    Btw, as much as I like running numbers, I also remind myself not to let myself get into analysis paralysis. The market won't wait for us to redo our models. I think this is why having a RE license helps because it gives us just a little more room to make mistakes. 

  • Contractor · Boston, MA · Member since 2018 · 38 posts · 16 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Brian Z.:
    Originally posted by @Rob Ferdinand:

    Thanks, Brian. Great info. What is the average annual rent increase you use in these models? 

    I usually do multiple but simple models using rates between 2% to 5%, so I could see what the return looks like between conservative to aggressive. I think 5% is as high as I would go. 3% is probably a good conservative average. This year is obviously tricky because we could see a little more inventory and coupling with high unemployment. I anticipate we're going to hold steady for the rest of the year at least this is what I'm seeing so far. 

    I do the same thing for ROI. Even at 3% annual increase, we're looking at around double digit ROI in the long haul. I don't do models for other cities, but I do look at similarities between large international metros with no land to build. Places like NYC, SF, Hong Kong, and London are all in a similar situation and you could see continuous increase without slowing down.

    Btw, as much as I like running numbers, I also remind myself not to let myself get into analysis paralysis. The market won't wait for us to redo our models. I think this is why having a RE license helps because it gives us just a little more room to make mistakes. 

    That all make sense. 

    Thanks!

  • New to Real Estate · Brookline, MA · Member since 2019 · 26 posts · 15 votes
    6y

    @Jonathan R McLaughlin I like the strategy of converting a multi into condos. Are individual investors doing a lot of that, or is that more the purview of RE investing companies? Trying to find a realistic strategy given the prices here.

  • Rental Property Investor · Boston, Massachusetts (MA) · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y

    Hi @David Shapira, individual investors have done a LOT of that over the past decade plus, to the point where there isn't that much inventory in Boston proper and to where the prices have skyrocketed. Take a look at a multi in JP (my neighborhood) or Brookline and you'll see the prices have made margins on the conversions pretty tight, especially if you don't have your own crew. We have definitely passed the peak of the cycle for things, and most of the pros have gone elsewhere or the projects have gotten bigger. For Boston proper, still activity in Dorchester, Hyde Park and some other areas and I believe CREW (chelsea everett winthrop revere) and orange line towns still viable. 

  • Property Manager · Boston, MA · Member since 2019 · 11 posts · 8 votes
    6y

    If it's going to be your first property and you're going to be occupying one of the apartments it makes absolutely no sense to waste money on a PM, and this is coming from someone who manages properties. You can do everything yourself when it comes to managing it. Just make sure you have a good line of communication with the residents(just don't treat them like a friend). I work for a real estate holding company in Chestnut Hill, we own and manage all of our properties(almost $1.5 billion worth) and I'm saying it's a waste.

    Also 5-6% should be the most used for vacancy, maintenance, and CapX. Anything more and you're putting too much into reserve too quick. Also I feel like a lot of people think they have to keep a vacancy percentage forever. Once you have enough of a reserve you can stop allocating funds towards it or reduce the amount significantly, otherwise you're just losing cash flow. If for some reason you have to use your vacancy funds just increase the percentage again until you hit your reserve.

    Just my 2 cents on the management side of things.

    P.S, if you're looking for good cash flow look in the South Shore. There are a lot of areas being revitalized down there. I know you said you want to be close to the city but I don't know what your definition of close is.


    Good luck with everything!!

  • Rental Property Investor · Boston, Massachusetts (MA) · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y

    @David Iknaian thats so true about prop management for these properties and I'm glad to hear someone say it. And another thing people forget is that for small multis sellers don't factor in PM costs as being legitimate. Their main markets are owner occs and mom and pop investors and they don't have to.

    Plus, you save yourself no time. If you have a PM you are going to be on the phone or email to them as you authorize a repair or find a vendor. Might as well make the same one phone call to the vendor directly and build your own relationships. NOT a heavy lift.

    I keep looking at the south shore but can't bring myself to like the various options too much. Have been focused on essex county and southern /mid NH lately. I'd be curious what areas you focus on and find appealing. Feel free to PM...always willing to look.

    And I chuckle when people say you should invest out of state in Boston. Just go West of 495. Same thing.

  • Investor · London · Member since 2017 · 160 posts · 82 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by@Brian Z.:
    Originally posted by @Rob Ferdinand:

    Thanks, Brian. Great info. What is the average annual rent increase you use in these models? 

    I usually do multiple but simple models using rates between 2% to 5%, so I could see what the return looks like between conservative to aggressive. I think 5% is as high as I would go. 3% is probably a good conservative average. This year is obviously tricky because we could see a little more inventory and coupling with high unemployment. I anticipate we're going to hold steady for the rest of the year at least this is what I'm seeing so far. 

    I do the same thing for ROI. Even at 3% annual increase, we're looking at around double digit ROI in the long haul. I don't do models for other cities, but I do look at similarities between large international metros with no land to build. Places like NYC, SF, Hong Kong, and London are all in a similar situation and you could see continuous increase without slowing down.

    Btw, as much as I like running numbers, I also remind myself not to let myself get into analysis paralysis. The market won't wait for us to redo our models. I think this is why having a RE license helps because it gives us just a little more room to make mistakes. 

    Hi there, interesting post that I was reading because I always follow Boston trends as grew up there and recently sold a property there. 

    Just wanted to note that nothing is guaranteed in high cost cities especially year by year. I think Hong Kong has been haemorrhaging value lately and I live in London so can share some numbers I was just running today because we are deciding whether to do more property here or in the US:

    This compares our area of London to some super prime areas: N1 / Islington which might be like Cambridge or Somerville and Kensington which is like Beacon Hill or Back Bay or maybe even higher end e.g there are oligarchs and Royalty. Our area is more like JP or Roslindale

    I was a bit shocked by my results -- even though I had heard from posh friends who bought in central London around the time of the Brexit referendum that they negotiated discounts of 10% the day after the vote and since then their property fell another 10%. 

    But I was kind of shocked to see the flat / negative return over 7 years in those 2 posh areas. These are all averages and I know smart people made fortunes in the top areas the whole time but imagine being a flipper and the next year having a drop of 22%. This is why I like to try to diversify cities/countries even if it's not easy on a day to day basis. (Like almost everyone else on BP it seems) I'm looking at southern and mountain areas of the US right now for future opps

    Total return of £100 since start 2014
    Our area N1 Kens
       +63% -2.5% -9%
    Year Our area N1 (Islington) Kensington and surrounding
    2014    14% 15% 23%
    2015    16% 6% -13%
    2016    16% 0% 16%
    2017    4% 3% -14%
    2018    3% 1% 10%
    2019    -4% -4% -1%
    2020    3% -19% -22%
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