Cleveland Population Decline... Why?

Austin, TX · Member since 2016 · 160 posts · 39 votes

We all know Cleveland Population is Declining every year. I hear a lot of reasons, but other than jobs as being the main reason, I cannot seem to find other reasons that make it reasonable for the declinning population.

There are a lot of metros with high unemployment and yet the properties are appreciating greatly (EX: Fresno, CA, Bakersfield, CA).

With such high unemployment rate in Fresno, you would still be able to see an increase in population. Although I strongly believe in the fact that job will significantly impact the population, but after seeing Fresno as an example, I think jobs are not only source nor the true source of population decline. What do you think the reason that may contribute to the decline population?

Interesting population graph that I see here:

Although this is not a great indicator that "population is moving to Columbus", but those curves really made me wonder what is happening.

To local Clevelanders, tell me what you think of the reason of decline population?

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Ryan Evans

Rental Property Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2016 · 653 posts · 769 votes

Gotta love threads like this that scare people away from Cleveland and leave the great deals for the rest of us! Amazon is a lot smarter than I am and they're investing a couple hundred million in the area my properties are so I think I'll stick it out there. If the city dies off in 10 years, at least the properties you buy there will pay for themselves in 5 years haha.

@James Hunt you mean major conferences like the 2016 RNC?

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James Galla
Attorney · Akron, OH · Member since 2016 · 535 posts · 389 votes
8y
I think the problem we are looking at can still be attributed to the city being overbuilt. Additionally, it is a part of the rust belt. If you look to other rust belt cities, I think you'll see population declines as well. I don't think it is worth worrying about immediately because the rate of decline is not like the city is being wholly abandoned. Instead, we've seen a decline for several decades.
For more, I'd check out this link:
Cleveland Federal Reserve Explores Population Decline
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Tom Ott
Equity Raiser and Turnkey Provider · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2016 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
8y
Originally posted by @Helen Zhang:

We all know Cleveland Population is Declining every year. I hear a lot of reasons, but other than jobs as being the main reason, I cannot seem to find other reasons that make it reasonable for the declinning population.
There are a lot of metros with high unemployment and yet the properties are appreciating greatly (EX: Fresno, CA, Bakersfield, CA).
With such high unemployment rate in Fresno, you would still be able to see an increase in population. Although I strongly believe in the fact that job will significantly impact the population, but after seeing Fresno as an example, I think jobs are not only source nor the true source of population decline. What do you think the reason that may contribute to the decline population?
Interesting population graph that I see here:
Although this is not a great indicator that "population is moving to Columbus", but those curves really made me wonder what is happening.
To local Clevelanders, tell me what you think of the reason of decline population?
Although the city of Cleveland has lost population the surrounding suburbs and the region has been pretty stable. I like that you included some suburbs, like Euclid and Cleveland Heights on your chart. They are a perfect example of how the suburbs are still going strong over the years. Their population has remained STABLE which can be a good indicator of what is to come. If you are looking for "up and coming" areas you risk that area hitting a brick wall in a few years or prices being inflated.
There are a lot of tech jobs and medical jobs here. It's funny how Columbus always gets compared to Cleveland in terms of population. A long time ago, Columbus annexed the entire county it is in and became the city it is today. Cleveland is not as large in terms of sq. miles. If Cleveland annexed everyone who was considered the "greater Cleveland area" it would be the largest city in the state.
Cleveland also has the Cleveland Clinic which is the largest employer in the state of Ohio and the second best-rated hospital system in the country after the Mayo Clinic.
Good luck!
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Helen Zhang
OP
Austin, TX · Member since 2016 · 160 posts · 39 votes
8y
@Tom Ott , due to the population scale, my first graph does not show all the surrounding suburbs very well. I have a second graph on the first page of the thread that shows all surrounding neighborhoods. Most of those burbs are also flat-lining or trending down.
I wasn't intended to compare to Columbus, but when the population decreases in Cleveland, you will see a spike of Columbus increase in population. I think that is funny. It is rare to see a city increase in population while the economy is going down. I'm less concerned about what they want to consider "greater Cleveland area". How ever they want to do their population is up to Census. But when census data shows that these population is declining and still is declining would bring serious worries to investors.
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Tom Ott
Equity Raiser and Turnkey Provider · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2016 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
8y
Originally posted by @Helen Zhang:

@Tom Ott , due to the population scale, my first graph does not show all the surrounding suburbs very well. I have a second graph on the first page of the thread that shows all surrounding neighborhoods. Most of those burbs are also flat-lining or trending down.
I wasn't intended to compare to Columbus, but when the population decreases in Cleveland, you will see a spike of Columbus increase in population. I think that is funny. It is rare to see a city increase in population while the economy is going down. I'm less concerned about what they want to consider "greater Cleveland area". How ever they want to do their population is up to Census. But when census data shows that these population is declining and still is declining would bring serious worries to investors.
All I am trying to point out is the reason Columbus is growing is mostly due to annexation. They have annexed an entire county and then some over the years. Cleveland has remained the same Sq. miles for years and has not absorbed the suburbs. The city itself is not that big, but the greater area is much larger than Columbus.
Please see more here: Geography of Columbus, Ohio
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Helen Zhang
OP
Austin, TX · Member since 2016 · 160 posts · 39 votes
8y
@Tom Ott , I might have misunderstandings. Is Columbus annexation changes every year? (I'm not convinced that it is as this is not how Census data is calculated). I believe the same region that was considered as Columbus 20 years ago is the same Columbus today. If this is not true, please correct me.
It does not matter if Columbus annexation happens to be a bigger region than Cleveland. I am not looking for the overall population. I am only looking at growth/decline.
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Sam C.
Lehigh Valley, PA · Member since 2016 · 144 posts · 91 votes
8y
My gut ( after lots of reading, viewing and connecting the dots ) tells me that there are 100's if not 1000's of small/mid-size cities like Cleveland that are really not needed anymore. There has been little to no real economic growth in many of them for a long time. Many of them barely get by with the number of low paying jobs created and most likely survive through government incentives and various tax schemes to build anything. I may be wrong. But ask yourself "why live in Cleveland or Detroit or Gainesville or Buffalo or Allentown or the many others like them). I live in the Allentown area. If it wasn't for a small stadium built downtown and the huge tax breaks giving by the state/local government to build downtown, we would have imploded long ago. Sadly though the graft and pure corruption ( our mayor is facing felony charges and goes to trial late this year or early next BUT is still running four reelection!) to get it done will come back to hurt the local population in a few years. That is solely my opinion and I truly hope I am wrong.
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Tom Ott
Equity Raiser and Turnkey Provider · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2016 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
8y
Originally posted by @Helen Zhang:

@Tom Ott , I might have misunderstandings. Is Columbus annexation changes every year? (I'm not convinced that it is as this is not how Census data is calculated). I believe the same region that was considered as Columbus 20 years ago is the same Columbus today. If this is not true, please correct me.
It does not matter if Columbus annexation happens to be a bigger region than Cleveland. I am not looking for the overall population. I am only looking at growth/decline.
"According to the United States Census Bureau, the city has a total area of 212.6 square miles (550.5 km²), of which, 210.3 square miles (544.6 km²) of it is land and 2.3 square miles (5.9 km²) of it (1.07%) is water. Unlike many other major US cities in the Midwest, Columbus continues to expand its reach by way of extensions and annexations, making it one of the fastest growing large cities in the nation, in terms of both geography and population, and probably the fastest in the Midwest. While Columbus' suburban population is not as large as Ohio's other two large metro areas, (Cleveland and Cincinnati), due to its annexation policies, it is almost entirely ringed by suburbs, and it even has some land-locked suburbs which are completely surrounded by Columbus' city limits"
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Brad Nelson
Cleveland, OH · Member since 2016 · 11 posts · 7 votes
8y
Look out a few decades and populations will be eventually be moving northward due more frequent extreme events. Insurance rates are already rising in many sunbelt locations.
Snow is a manageable challenge. Earthquakes(due to fracking), tornadoes, wild fires(due to droughts) , and hurricanes(due to warmer oceans) are not.
In light of those factors, Cleveland is looking more attractive moving forward.
Also, supply of housing has decreased since the mortgage crisis via bulldozers, thus helping to stabilize demand.
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Account Closed
Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 688 votes
8y
People leave places that are bad for places that arent bad. Bad= joblessness, crime, high cost. -see baltimore city
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Robert EllisBusiness Member
Developer · Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
8y
Originally posted by @Helen Zhang:

@Tom Ott , I might have misunderstandings. Is Columbus annexation changes every year? (I'm not convinced that it is as this is not how Census data is calculated). I believe the same region that was considered as Columbus 20 years ago is the same Columbus today. If this is not true, please correct me.
It does not matter if Columbus annexation happens to be a bigger region than Cleveland. I am not looking for the overall population. I am only looking at growth/decline.
Columbus is the fastest growing city in ohio. top 20 metro. Outside of Franklin and Delaware counties Ohio (central ohio), Ohio has negative population grow. Invest where the numbers are, where the growth is, where the jobs are, where the investment is, etc. Let me know if I can be of assistance. We can answer any questions about the columbus metro.
[email protected]786-494-6766
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William Carroll
Investor · Columbus, OH · Member since 2015 · 42 posts · 21 votes
8y
Originally posted by @Sam C.:

My gut ( after lots of reading, viewing and connecting the dots ) tells me that there are 100's if not 1000's of small/mid-size cities like Cleveland that are really not needed anymore. There has been little to no real economic growth in many of them for a long time. Many of them barely get by with the number of low paying jobs created and most likely survive through government incentives and various tax schemes to build anything. I may be wrong. But ask yourself "why live in Cleveland or Detroit or Gainesville or Buffalo or Allentown or the many others like them).
You could say all the same things about most of rural America (minus the graft part, of course). Manufacturing jobs left rural America years ago and nothing yet has filled the vacuum, nor does there appear to be anything on the horizon. Not to minimize the issues, but I still believe small/mid-sized cities are far better positioned to handle this than most of rural America. As long as an area has good universities and infrastructure, there is a shot at re-tooling into a modern economy. IMO Cleveland falls into this category.
I visit Cleveland quite often as my company has a remote branch there. It's not quite the cesspool in decline that the OP's stats make it out to be. It's rebounded quite nicely since the most recent economic depression.
I've actually been looking at Cleveland a little harder for investment because Columbus has gotten so expensive. Many of the C-class neighborhoods are actually in better shape than Columbus, which has some large patches of internal rot that never seems to improve. Columbus multi-fam housing stock is highly fractured between expensive wealthy suburbs/trendy gentrification areas and urban decay, with very little in between. In Cleveland, there appears to be way more B/C-class stock there at lower prices. The costs are higher due to the fact that you can't pass the water bill to the tenants, and taxes can be high in spots (though the same can be said for Columbus).
Biggest downside to Cleveland IMO is the weather, but almost everyone except the most hardcore deniers are starting to face the fact that climate is getting warmer, which will over the course of the next several decades make northern states more desirable. Climate in Columbus is far warmer than it was when I was a kid over 40 years ago, when it was common to have winters containing extended periods of sub-zero temperatures. Sub-zero temperatures are almost anomalies now. Cleveland's by a great lake, so it does have a climate that is somewhat worse than Columbus, but I've heard a couple times recently that Grand Rapids, MI is booming, and I'm not sure anyone has worse winter weather outside of Siberia or Antarctica.
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Jessie Niu
Columbus, OH · Member since 2015 · 210 posts · 80 votes
8y
Originally posted by @Helen Zhang:

We all know Cleveland Population is Declining every year. I hear a lot of reasons, but other than jobs as being the main reason, I cannot seem to find other reasons that make it reasonable for the declinning population.
Forget about Cleveland, Cleveland is HISTORY. Invest in Columbus and Cincinnati if you are interested in Ohio markets, both are top 10 best multi-family markets in the country. Others are Dallas, Atlanta etc.
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Gwen Fyfe
Rental Property Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2016 · 227 posts · 287 votes
8y
Originally posted by @Jessie Niu:

This cracked me up, thank you! :)
5 Reply
Eric Delcol
Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2016 · 334 posts · 215 votes
8y
Cleveland is the same as Miami - just listen to an expert who's lived and worked in both cities: https://youtu.be/CQkQFfO6uJ4
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James Hunt
Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2016 · 96 posts · 27 votes
8y
People leave because there isn’t much to do outside of drink and eat. In addition, Cleveland lacks tourist attractions or the ability to host major conferences like E3; the fact we don’t have a dome kills us.
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Peter Tindall
Professional · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2017 · 3 posts · 12 votes
8y
Originally posted by @Helen Zhang:

@Federico Gutierrez , RockyRiver, Euclid are in the graph. We can add more, but they are all mostly are declining as well:
Interestingly, during great recession, these cities would spike in population. It is likely that residents from Cleveland are moving to suburbs. This is normal as I have observed this in many other major city along with surrounding suburbs.
But as you can see, Cleveland and surrounding neighborhoods are all trending down in population.
I don't believe that the population spiked during the recession.
There are likely only two real data points on this graph, which are the 2000 census, and 2010 census. The rest of the data points are estimates. That's why you see large movements in the graph during these years as the population models are revised with the new census numbers.
The jumps you see in the graph are not an accurate reflection of what actually happened with the population.
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Ryan Evans
Rental Property Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2016 · 653 posts · 769 votes
8y
Gotta love threads like this that scare people away from Cleveland and leave the great deals for the rest of us! Amazon is a lot smarter than I am and they're investing a couple hundred million in the area my properties are so I think I'll stick it out there. If the city dies off in 10 years, at least the properties you buy there will pay for themselves in 5 years haha.
@James Hunt you mean major conferences like the 2016 RNC?
10 Reply
James Wise
Real Estate Broker · Cleveland Dayton Cincinnati Toledo Columbus & Akron, OH · Member since 2013 · 30k+ posts · 20k+ votes
8y
Originally posted by @Eric Delcol:

Cleveland is the same as Miami - just listen to an expert who's lived and worked in both cities:
https://youtu.be/CQkQFfO6uJ4
YEEEEES!
0 Reply
Helen Zhang
OP
Austin, TX · Member since 2016 · 160 posts · 39 votes
8y
@Peter Tindall good point on the census. I will keep that in mind.
@Eric Delcol lol
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Chris Grenier
Flipper/Rehabber · Orlando, FL · Member since 2016 · 311 posts · 150 votes
8y
Just hearing Cleveland alone almost made want to ignore this thread never mind the city lol
1 Reply
Helen Zhang
OP
Austin, TX · Member since 2016 · 160 posts · 39 votes
8y
I intentionally ignoring all posts about Amazon fulfillment center (except protests related things which shows Cleveland culture) in Cleveland. Imo, having a fulfillment center nearby is not a great thing for investors. It just means the local residential are blue collar and the land is cheap. No Amazon fulfillment center will be set up in an expensive land. The only benefit that Cleveland got out of Amazon is some blue collar jobs and fast Amazon shipment. I can't seem to understand why everyone is so excited that Amazon "invested" in Cleveland. If you are a city with a population of 400k and not having an Amazon fulfillment center within 100 miles, then you are in a weird city. Now if Amazon got Cleveland as 2HQ, that would be a different story. But unfortunately, Cleveland is not qualified to compete.

Although Amazon is not a pro, I am still interested.
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Tom Ott
Equity Raiser and Turnkey Provider · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2016 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
8y
Originally posted by @Helen Zhang:

I intentionally ignoring all posts about Amazon fulfillment center (except protests related things which shows Cleveland culture) in Cleveland. Imo, having a fulfillment center nearby is not a great thing for investors. It just means the local residential are blue collar and the land is cheap. No Amazon fulfillment center will be set up in an expensive land. The only benefit that Cleveland got out of Amazon is some blue collar jobs and fast Amazon shipment. I can't seem to understand why everyone is so excited that Amazon "invested" in Cleveland. If you are a city with a population of 400k and not having an Amazon fulfillment center within 100 miles, then you are in a weird city. Now if Amazon got Cleveland as 2HQ, that would be a different story. But unfortunately, Cleveland is not qualified to compete.

Although Amazon is not a pro, I am still interested.
Well just to correct few things, Amazon invested in the Cleveland MARKET, not the city of Cleveland. So the 400k population statement only pertains to the city. Euclid and North Randall fall into the category of Greater Cleveland, which has a population of over 2 million.
These jobs are important because they are the kind of jobs a renter would have. Cleveland is a more affordable market, which means if you work a high paying white collar job, you will most likely own a home. If you work a blue collar job here then you are most likely renting. I.E. Blue Collar Jobs = Jobs for tenants.
Cleveland actually is qualified to compete for 2HQ, and they have in fact put in a bid.
These jobs are a pretty good thing when you break it down.
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Helen Zhang
OP
Austin, TX · Member since 2016 · 160 posts · 39 votes
8y
@Tom Ott , I honesty don't know if you read my thread. There is nothing I said conflicting to what you are saying (except that I do not judge on investment strategies). What I am saying that it is NORMAL for Amazon to have a fulfillment center as it exists in every big city/metro, and Cleveland is not special or anything for having a fulfillment center.
I said where Amazon had fulfillment center is always near blue-collar and cheap land. This can be a good thing or bad thing to investors and it depends on what kinda investor you are. Some investors are simply looking for appreciations only, and that would not be their interest. I am not going to judge regardless how people are going to invest/speculate. I am just stating the fact that having an Amazon fulfillment center is not the same as having an Amazon Headquarter.
There is a fundamental difference between "A city wants to compete" vs "A city is qualified to compete". The news article that you have showed is an article that describe that Cleveland wants to compete. Here is information from Amazon with qualified cities: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/07/here-are-the-citie...
Now I am going to express my opinion of Cleveland that is completely irrelevant to Amazon topic (yes now I am actually judging). Imo I think even the blue collars have a great opportunity of buying a house by themselves. If they are not buying, they are likely just bad at managing finances. Dealing with tenants with bad finances is difficult. As an investor, if all the money that I am pouring into Cleveland is just to make money out of the tenants who are capable of making money but bad with personal finances, is it still worth it?
The best type of tenants that I like are in the following situation:
1. Have a stable job, possibly smart with their finances
2. The job that they have will never provide enough for them to save enough for a down payment.
3. Section 8 tenants who have government to pay for them
They will be long-term tenants, and they will never have a problem paying rent.
I don't expect myself to get the same type of tenants in Cleveland. So the type of Cleveland tenant that I am expecting would be:
1. Have a job
2. Bad with personal finances, always on paycheck to paycheck
3. Not going to pay until you knock on their doors
4. You will have to send them 3-day move out notices once a while.
Shrug. With all that said, I am still interested in Cleveland.
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Steven Aviram
Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2017 · 13 posts · 20 votes
8y
Originally posted by @Helen Zhang:

@Tom Ott , I honesty don't know if you read my thread. There is nothing I said conflicting to what you are saying (except that I do not judge on investment strategies). What I am saying that it is NORMAL for Amazon to have a fulfillment center as it exists in every big city/metro, and Cleveland is not special or anything for having a fulfillment center.
I said where Amazon had fulfillment center is always near blue-collar and cheap land. This can be a good thing or bad thing to investors and it depends on what kinda investor you are. Some investors are simply looking for appreciations only, and that would not be their interest. I am not going to judge regardless how people are going to invest/speculate. I am just stating the fact that having an Amazon fulfillment center is not the same as having an Amazon Headquarter.
There is a fundamental difference between "A city wants to compete" vs "A city is qualified to compete". The news article that you have showed is an article that describe that Cleveland wants to compete. Here is information from Amazon with qualified cities: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/07/here-are-the-citie...
Now I am going to express my opinion of Cleveland that is completely irrelevant to Amazon topic (yes now I am actually judging). Imo I think even the blue collars have a great opportunity of buying a house by themselves. If they are not buying, they are likely just bad at managing finances. Dealing with tenants with bad finances is difficult. As an investor, if all the money that I am pouring into Cleveland is just to make money out of the tenants who are capable of making money but bad with personal finances, is it still worth it?
The best type of tenants that I like are in the following situation:
1. Have a stable job, possibly smart with their finances
2. The job that they have will never provide enough for them to save enough for a down payment.
3. Section 8 tenants who have government to pay for them
They will be long-term tenants, and they will never have a problem paying rent.
I don't expect myself to get the same type of tenants in Cleveland. So the type of Cleveland tenant that I am expecting would be:
1. Have a job
2. Bad with personal finances, always on paycheck to paycheck
3. Not going to pay until you knock on their doors
4. You will have to send them 3-day move out notices once a while.
Shrug. With all that said, I am still interested in Cleveland.
I work for a company that manages over 100 rentals. In my opinion the picture you paint of the typical Cleveland renter is off base. Our tenants are renters for a variety of reasons. Many simply don’t want to deal with the hassles of home ownership. If a hot water tank, furnace, roof, etc. goes bad, the landlord is responsible for it (if they’re a good landlord), not the tenant. Yes, some are bad with finances, and don’t have great credit. Some lost their homes in the housing crisis and didn’t have the credit to buy. Others have very good paying jobs, but may have to relocate after they finish medical school or residency (lots of med students in Cleveland because of the top ranked hospitals). Others are young people just starting out, who don’t want to commit to buying a house yet. What I’m saying is, there’s really no way to stereotype renters here.
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Federico Gutierrez
Realtor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 857 votes
8y
So @Helen Zhang you going to invest in Cleveland or keep looking for reasons not to?

Cause I deal with many investors that look at numbers but find every excuse under the sun to not buy and then say "I can't find no deals"
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