Analysis help, please.

Analysis help, please.

Investor · Yokosuka, Japan · Member since 2014 · 631 posts · 184 votes

Please help me look at this deal. I am getting really close to my first purchase. Have been learning all I can here, but feel nervous about my interpretation of how to analyze a deal and I know many of you can do it with your eyes closed.

Here are the numbers:

Asking price: $36,900

Average rent in the area $650 - $900 I have gathered enough cash from different sources but plan to finance it through a HELOC which requires a payment of $232 per month. No immediate payments, but I want to calculate it all from the start.

50% Rule

$650 rent = $93 cash flow (Not great but close to $100).

$700 rent = $118 cash flow

$850 rent = $193 cash flow

$900 rent = $218 cash flow

2% rule works

$650 rent = $32,500 purchase price

$700 rent = $35,000 purchase price

$850 rent = $42,500 purchase price

$900 rent = $45,000 purchase price

I am using the $650 for my calculations, to look at it from the most conservative angle.

I am going to have an inspection to rule out any major problems and to get an estimate on repairs. That will help me determine my offer keeping the 2% rule in mind.

Am I on the right track? What am I missing? What would you do?

Thank you for taking the time to look this over and send me your feedback,

Pyrrha

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Rental Property Investor · Brookline, MA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 777 votes
12y

@Pyrrha Rivers

Looks like you've lined up your money and done most of your homework.

Is your HELOC at 6.5%? I based that on your borrowing all $36,900 against the HELOC.

I would find out exactly how much the following expense are going to cost you each month:

Taxes

Sewer and Water

Trash

Heat/Utilities

HOA

Cap Ex and Ops

Insurance

Mgmt Fee - as a %

Vacancy- as a %. 8% represents 1 vacant month/unit/year

Once you have a good handle on those, post the numbers back up and I'll tell you what I'd pay for it at the various rent numbers you mentioned.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Investor · Yokosuka, Japan · Member since 2014 · 631 posts · 184 votes
    12y

    @Steve Babiak You said "Your HELOC payment sounds high for that loan amount. Is it interest only payment? What is the interest rate?

    Your rent range is way too broad. You have to be within like $50 to $75 at the widest rent range to really evaluate accurately. I suspect you will be at lowest rent for that price of house."

    The $231.64 payment is what they quoted me for the whole loan amount which is $50,000. Does that number sound more reasonable to you? The interest rate is 3.75%

    I followed your advice and used the lower rent for my calculations.

    Thanks,

    Pyrrha

  • Rental Property Investor · Brookline, MA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 777 votes
    12y

    @Pyrrha Rivers

    Alright, your monthly payment is $170.89 if you borrow $36,900 at 3.75% for a 30 year term.

    At $650 in rent, this is not a good deal in my book. I like my SFH numbers to be 15% Cash on Cash return AND $150/month in cash flow. So the rent number for me would be $730/month.

    Here is how I see $730/month income against the following expenses:

    Mortgage Rate 3.75%

    Length of Mortgage in years 30

    Monthly Mortgage payment $170.89

    Taxes $56.25

    Sewer and Water $-

    Trash $-

    Heat/Utilities $-

    Bank Fee $6.25 (this is that $75/year HELOC fee)

    Cap Ex and Ops $150.00

    Insurance $62.50

    Mgmt Fee $73.00

    Vacancy $58.40

    Total Expenses $577.29

    Cashflow/month $152.71

    Cashflow/year $1,832.52

    Cash on Cash Return 33.32%

  • Real Estate Investor · Audubon, PA · Member since 2009 · 13k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    12y

    If it is an interest only payment, then that sounds high. If you are paying down principle as well as interest in that payment, then you should use an online mortgage calculator to check; lots of sites have them, but I usually go to http://www.bankrate.com/ to calculate payments and get an amortization table.

  • Real Estate Investor · Audubon, PA · Member since 2009 · 13k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    12y

    @Pyrrha Rivers just use the "Quote" link next to any post you wish to cite.

  • Investor · Yokosuka, Japan · Member since 2014 · 631 posts · 184 votes
    12y

    Thank you so much @Aaron Montague ! This is very helpful! I really appreciate you taking the time to work this out and explain it to me.

  • Developer · Decatur, GA · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    12y

    @Pyrrha Rivers

    Oh, let's don't blame this on your daughter! :-) Did you give her a checklist of things to check? Did you get pictures/video walkthrough? You have to build a system for investing remotely.

    Well this is the right place to figure these things out. Post your pictures and post some of the rentals in the area and their rental amount.

    Personally, I like to go for the higher end renter without over investing.

    At a minimum you'll need to:

    Install a a new compressor is about $2500 and a cage $450.

    Paint the interior 2 - 3 colors - pick favorite neutrals and stick with them so it's easier to maintain. Sherwin Williams Accessible Beige, Sherwin Williams White Ibis for trim are good starts. I will Sherwin Williams Anew Grey for a more modern look. $2000

    Freshen up the floors $500

    Deep cleaning - $240

    To get more money each month and reduce your vacancy, you should also consider:

    Swap out the outlets, switches, and about 4 lights -- $200 labor + materials

    Kitchen and Bath? Paint cabinets? - $500

    Lawn Care - $100

    Scratch and dent appliances?

    Window treatment?

    How will you 'harden' the rental to reduce expenses as you go?

    Your inspection will tell you how old the roof, water heater, air handler, and appliances are. These are significant expenses you'll want to have reserves for.

    Start building your list and firm up your budget.

    Rick

  • Investor · Yokosuka, Japan · Member since 2014 · 631 posts · 184 votes
    12y

    @Rick Baggenstoss That’s funny! It’s not blame I’m placing on my daughter just the truth. Her eyes are not trained because mine aren’t either. She said the house looks very good and only had a question about a couple cut outs in the wall. Neither of us have any idea of how to look for signs of foundation problems or even things that are quite obvious to you when you walk in a place. I’m sure my posts make it clear how green I am at this, so I can’t yet provide the leadership she needs in order to make the observations a trained eye makes. I did not give her a list of things to look for because as you mention I don’t have a system to invest remotely. I did ask her for pictures and she took them. I was just saying to her I wish we had known the tip that @Jon Holdman gave me about driving the neighborhood and noting how many for rent signs there are. If they are plentiful we may have a tough time renting ours. I didn't know that either Lol.

    As newbies we just don’t know what we don’t know. That’s why BP is such a blessing with so many generous folks willing to talk us through the thinking process and tell it to us straight. I really appreciate it and love the list of items to consider, including the paint colors. Where else can one get so much help?

    Thank you so much for taking the time to guide me!

  • Investor · Yokosuka, Japan · Member since 2014 · 631 posts · 184 votes
    12y

    I just got the repairs estimate for the property. Asking price $36,900 + repairs $14,000 = $51K

    1) Repair all roof leaks $ 475.00

    2) Replace all rotted fascia and soffit $ 325.00

    3) Prep all previously painted exterior surfaces and seal gaps between to materials. Prime all exposed wood surfaces and apply two coats of paint on all previously painted surfaces $ 2,850.00

    4) Install rear exterior door unit with all hardware and locks.

    $ 570.00

    5) Replace concrete pad at the base of rear stoop steps

    $ 720.00

    6) Remove the dead tree at the right rear corner of the house, haul limbs away and stump the roots. $ 960.00

    7) Repair the chain link fence at the rear of the house.

    $ 436.00

    8) Install 80,000 BTU gas furnace, with a 24,000 BTU condensing unit and 24,000 BTU evaporator coil, 30’ line set, pad and electrical disconnect

    $ 4,650.00

    9) Install a 40 gallon gas furnace in the crawlspace with expansion device.

    10) Install shoe mold in the house $ 650.00

    11) Repair all cut-out holes in the interior drywall finished to paint and paint all repairs. $ 275.00

    12) Replace lavatory in the hall bath $ 350.00

    13) Properly cap the countertop right end and repair base cabinet facing.

    $ 200.00

    14) Install missing downspouts $ 150.00

    15) Install guard rail around the rear stoop and step

    $ 710.00

    Total $13,321.00

    I'm not having much luck uploading the pictures so I'll have to take some time to figure that out but here are the numbers for the rehab.

    Thanks!

  • Investor · Yokosuka, Japan · Member since 2014 · 631 posts · 184 votes
    12y

    So I did a quick search for a tutorial on how to post pictures and thanks to Michael R, I now have pictures to show you.

    Thanks Michael the tutorial was very user friendly!

    In the future I will capture images individually so they come out larger, but here's the first try.

  • Investor · Winnipeg, Manitoba · Member since 2013 · 303 posts · 321 votes
    12y

    @Pyrrha Rivers

    The community has given you a lot of advice already. I actually learn a lot with this posting.

    Few things I want to bring to your attention.

    1)figure in holding costs during rehab.

    2)set aside $3000.00 for OOPS factor during rehab.

    3) Schedule payment terms for the contractor, NEVER pay them until a third party has verified the job is done as specified. May be pay your home inspector $50.00 just to see if what has said has been done properly. Also make sure the contractor sign the wavier before final payment.

    I also put in penalty clause in my agreement; so the contractor do not drag on the finish time. I do reward my contractor with a bonus when the job is finished as scheduled

    4) you need to carry vacant property insurance during rehab, I found it quite costly. I used to pay close to $450.00 for 3 months for mine in GA. May be other members can recommend better rate.

    you are doing good, congrats

  • Investor · Yokosuka, Japan · Member since 2014 · 631 posts · 184 votes
    12y

    Yes @Tom Yung This community is amazing! Look at all they have taught me. And you are adding to that with your recommendations that also make a lot of sense!

    My head feels like it's going to explode but it will just have to get bigger to hold all of this new knowledge.

  • Developer · Decatur, GA · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    12y

    Hi Pyrrha -

    I have some very similar houses. I like them a lot for holding and flipping.

    Here's the good news and the bad news ...

    - They often have concrete walls so damage is less, easy maintenance and insulation.

    - Brick is low maintenance.

    - You have a nice lot.

    - HW floors are great.

    The bad news (guessing) ...

    - Washer/Dryer were an after thought. Usually there's not a place for one or it's in an awkward place.

    - Bathroom floor is probably rotten or rotting.

    - Kitchen floor is rotten or rotting.

    - You have galvanized supply lines

    - Windows are single pane (easy to replace) inefficient for tenant.

    - Attic is poorly insulated

    Here's are some comments on how I might tackle a your list or a similar rental

    :

    MUST DO BEFORE MARKETING to RENTERS:

    1) Repair all roof leaks $ 475.00 add clean out gutters

    11) Repair all cut-out holes in the interior drywall finished to paint and paint all repairs. $ 275.00 (give this job to the painter since there's not a lot)

    3) Prep all previously painted exterior surfaces and seal gaps between to materials. Prime all exposed wood surfaces and apply two coats of paint on all previously painted surfaces $ 2,850.00

    3A (I would only spend $500 on sealing windows, a little touch up paint, and pressure wash the exterior). Paint interior $2200 with remaining budget.

    4) Install rear exterior door unit with all hardware and locks.

    $ 570.00

    6) Remove the dead tree at the right rear corner of the house, haul limbs away and stump the roots. $ 960.00 (Call Atlanta Tree Pros)

    8) Install 80,000 BTU gas furnace, with a 24,000 BTU condensing unit and 24,000 BTU evaporator coil, 30’ line set, pad and electrical disconnect

    $ 4,650.00

    9) Install a 40 gallon gas furnace in the crawlspace with expansion device.

    10) Install shoe mold in the house $ 650.00

    10A) Buff and apply 2 coats poly to protect the floors, install shoe mold $1000 vs. $650 above.

    12) Replace lavatory in the hall bath $ 350.00

    12A) Pink bath tile needs to be colored or replaced. Add $1000 to resurface all wall tile and tub to bright white. (Call PM me for Curtis)

    13) Properly cap the countertop right end and repair base cabinet facing.

    $ 200.00

    13A - Paint cabinets w/ enamel, replace knobs/pulls, install granite tile or polished porcelain $1000, install lineolum under sink to protect floors and cabinet

    15) Install guard rail around the rear stoop and step

    $ 710.00 (Should be $250)

    14) Install missing downspouts $ 150.00

    15) Swap bedroom fixtures for new ceiling fans, replace light over vanity, light in kitchen and dining. $500

    16. Install 2 new smoke detectors/carbon monoxide detectors. $100

    NICE TO DO DURING YEAR 1:

    5) Replace concrete pad at the base of rear stoop steps

    $ 720.00

    7) Repair the chain link fence at the rear of the house.

    $ 436.00 Yes, if you rent to people with dogs.

    Add insulation to the attic $200 of insulation and $200 for labor

    NICE TO DO IN YEAR 2 - 3

    2) Replace all rotted fascia and soffit $ 325.00

    3) Paint exterior when you have someone who can do it for $1200, held the house for awhile, etc. (In year one, I would paint the front picture window, front stoop, doorway immediately with my handyman to give it a cleaner look.

    Great house and the repair list seems pretty reasonable.

  • Investor · Yokosuka, Japan · Member since 2014 · 631 posts · 184 votes
    12y

    @Rick Baggenstoss This review of my repairs list is wonderful! You just don't know how relieved I feel to know it meets with your approval. Further breaking id down to what has to be done right away and what can wait for years 2 or 3 is even better. I work best with action plans and steps to follow. (I'm taking your list and putting it side by side with the inspector's).

    Thanks again!

  • Investor · Yokosuka, Japan · Member since 2014 · 631 posts · 184 votes
    12y

    Hello all, It's been a solid month since I was so excited about the thought of having my first deal wrapped up. I didn't end up with the property but did acquire a lot of knowledge I didn't have. I have been trying to build that team but it's not happening quite yet. I am not giving up, just regrouping and considering options suitable for my actual situation. I am holding on to the words

    and feel encouraged by having such a wealth of information available here and the certainty that when I come up with a new plan or idea there is a generous community to help me look at it with experienced and objective minds.
    Thank you BP!

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