Rarely or NEVER in this market trust an appraisal... here is why

Rarely or NEVER in this market trust an appraisal... here is why

Real Estate Coach · Lake Zurich, IL · Member since 2009 · 10 posts · 0 votes

Unless you know methods for extrapolating what the true market value is from being able to read and dissect an appraisal, do not under any circumstances take the value from an appraisal and expect it to be true (unless you are in an upward value market)

I will attempt to quickly go over one of the most important points to reading and understanding an appraisal that should help you in determining value when negotiating with sellers.

Lets take a look at a particular call that I had just today that illustrates so well what I am talking about.

This student had just gotten an option on a deal that he thought was worth $1,100,000.00. He based the value on an appraisal that the seller had just had done within the last 30 days. Of course the seller based their estimation of the value of their home on this “Recent†appraisal.

The question is, was this appraisal really “Recent� Well the date on the appraisal may have been, but lets really look at the factors that determine if this is really the case.

The 3 comparables that the appraiser used were from August 2008, August 2008, and October 2008. Now those are the dates that the sales actually CLOSED. The closing date is NOT the date that actually established the value of those deals. The dates those contracts were signed to purchase those homes is the real true comparable date. It’s just that it probably took 45 to 60 days to actually get financing and close those deals. The problem is that the appraiser only has the closing date as the date he can use for the appraisal. He or she really has no idea of when the actual contract was signed to purchase those homes. Now those are typical dates you should use for “Re-Sale†transactions and in the case above, the comps are more realistically from June, June and August. So even though we have an appraisal dated within the last 30 days of this article, is the appraisal really recent? NO – the appraisal is actually approximately 9 months old. How far have values fallen in your area over the last 9 months? Should that percentage be applied against the value on this appraisal? You Betcha!!.

Now if the comps are new construction comps, you need to be very critical of the dates that established the real values of these homes. For instance, if you sign a contract for a builder to build you a home, it typically may take any where from 6 months to 1.5 years for that home to be completed. Again, the appraiser will use the closing date as the date of the comp. But the actual contract that was signed to purchase that home at that price may have been signed over a year ago! In a downward trending market such as the one we are in now, this could mean that home values could have slipped 20 – 30% or more just between the time that the buyer contracted the builder to build the home and the actual date that it closed. Many buyers have backed out of those deals and forfeited their earnest money and of course those deals never show up as comps. But for all the others that actually went ahead and closed on their new home purchase, if those are comps used in the appraisal you are reading, just understand that the value being shown could be as much as 1.5 years old. Do you think the recent date on the appraisal really means it is a good estimation of recent value? Of course not!!

I have saved some students a tremendous amount of time and money analyzing their deals with them using many techniques, but this is one that comes up time and time again. Showing them where they may have gone wrong evaluating an appraisal has saved many students from making a bad deal that could have potentially cost them thousands upon thousands of dollars.

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  • J ScottPro Member
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    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    17y

    For the most part, buyers will base their offers on the same comps that appraisers use to generate their values (in other words, buyers don't just pull offer prices out of thin air).

    This being the case, the buyers perceived value of the homes they offer on will be based on that purchase price as of that closing date, not the purchase price as of the offer date.

    Because property values are not intrinsic (at least not for non-income-producing residential properties), the buyer's value and the appraiser value will be generated using the same data (perceived or otherwise).

    Based on that, I disagree with your premise that appraised values are more "stale" than buyer's perceived values.

  • Real Estate Investor · OH · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    17y

    I NEVER trust an appraisal, regardless of the market. The entire appraisal business is (and always has been) a BIG JOKE!

    Did you even wonder why the appraisal done by the bank on a single family house that they're lending on comes out at almost exactly the purchase price? That happens because the bank tells the appraiser the purchase price and the appraiser finds comps that will support that price. Appraisers that consistently come up short in value won't have a job with the bank for long. The same is true of home inspectors. If they find too much wrong and kill the deal, real estate agents won't recommend them to clients in the future!

    On the other hand, say that you find a once in a lifetime deal: an apartment building worth $1,000,000 that your long time best friend billionaire will sell to you for $100,000 (10% of the value). Do you think the appraiser will appraise it at $1,000,000? ABSOLUTELY NOT! If you're buying it for $100,000, the appraiser isn't going to tell the bank that it's worth a million dollars. In the vast majority of instances, in cases like this, the appraiser will say the value is closer to the purchase price than the real value. The appraiser isn't going to go out on a perceived limb when he only has to justify a purchase price of $100,000!

    That's why I always preach KNOWING values in your target area. I will trust my knowledge of my area over some appraiser EVERY TIME!

    Mike

  • Real Estate Coach · Lake Zurich, IL · Member since 2009 · 10 posts · 0 votes
    17y

    Hi J. Scott..

    Thanks for the reply... however, what i am trying to say here is that if an investor is lured into making an offer and is guided by the value shown by using that appraisal that the seller or anyone for that matter provides, odd are in this market that the value on that appraisal will be greatly overstated based on the actual age of the comps compared to the current "deflation" of values. I cant tell you how many time a coaching student has come to me with a "Great Deal" that they just got from a seller pointing out that the have an appraisal that is very recent lets say for $1,000,000.00... the stuudent thinks they have a great deal based on a discount that they just recieved down to $700,000.00. The student thinks they have just gotten a 30% discount off the "recent" appraisal of $1 mil. When in reality, the value of that property in today's market may already be 20% or less that the value listed on the appraisal due to the age of comps relative to the deflation that has occured since the age of them. I have seen FAR to many investors get stuck with a property they could not sell for anywhere near where they bought because of this factor. Whether you agree or not, the reality is what has gotten many newer less experiened investors in trouble in this regard.

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    17y

    It would be simpler to just tell your students to keep in mind the seller has a desire to sell the place, and anything they say is going to be said with that in mind. Therefore, assume every word out of the sellers mouth is a lie, and you'll be better off.

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    17y
    Originally posted by Richard Freedkin:
    ...that appraisal will be greatly overstated based on the actual age of the comps compared to the current "deflation" of values...


    But, the "age of the comps" is going to be based on the CLOSING DATE of the comp sales.

    For example, if I put a property under contract today and get an appraisal tomorrow for $100K, and then don't close on the property for another 2 months, the value of that property -- from the standpoint of all future appraisals -- is $100K (the purchase price) as of closing date.

    If in three months, another appraiser uses this property as a comp, he's not going to say that the comp is three months old; he's say that the comp is only a month old, because it's a month after the recorded closing date.

    Though I certainly agree with MikeOH that appraisals don't mean anything anyway...my houses always appraise for more than they otherwise would because I go out of my way to ensure the appraiser has an incentive to do so. Because appraisers have the ability to fudge the numbers (for the buyer, the seller or the lender), they often do -- as MikeOH pointed out.

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